Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[nestoframpers] 10/11/2023 20:47

I dont know about the read across re the Sth , KRI has USA special interest status imo. Anyway what ever is going to happen had better happen soon as far as long in the tooth LTHS are concerned.

[confused _gerbill] 10/11/2023 20:15

PetroChina are fairly big fish though. Market cap: $170.82 Billion

"As of November 2023 PetroChina has a market cap of $170.82 Billion. This makes PetroChina the world's 59th most valuable company by market cap according to our data."

Happy to be second checked on that it was a Google search.

[theythinkitsallover] 10/11/2023 19:36

“ PetroChina, a partner in the consortium, will take over as operator, according to a memo from ExxonMobil to staff members of the West Qurna 1 consortium. Multiple officials at BOC said a signing ceremony for the handover to PetroChina as operator is due to be held at the Ministry of Oil on Nov. 15.

West Qurna 1 in Basra province is the only asset held by ExxonMobil in Iraq after it gave up its exploration blocks in the Kurdistan region. The sale means that ExxonMobil will no longer have an upstream presence in Iraq.”

Exxon gone

[r9505571] 10/11/2023 19:00

Brent crude futures were last up 1.89% to reach $81.53 per barrel, following a four-month low in the previous session.

[arcadian] 10/11/2023 17:40

Genel have a trading statement on Tuesday so we may learn more about how the various dialogues are going.

[pittcock] 10/11/2023 17:01

I think it is a question of optics. Shows us just which foot the shoe is on tbh.

[hangthedj] 10/11/2023 16:39

The updated info on the APIKUR website and the fact they're trying to make a deal is great news but think a 20 min zoom call could have achieved what has been reported.

No neutral venue required but I'm a misery guts :-)

[habshan] 10/11/2023 16:31

"Sounds promising but is a trip to Dubai really required to decide we need further meetings??"

I am in no doubt whatsoever that the ICG and SOMO would have wanted to summon the APIKUR representatives to Baghdad and have that meeting on their home ground.

APIKUR will have refused and insisted on a neutral venue of their choice.

So the Iraqis had to traipse to Dubai.

Read into that what you will.

[hangthedj] 10/11/2023 16:22

Sounds promising but is a trip to Dubai really required to decide we need further meetings??

[habshan] 10/11/2023 15:57

From the APIKUR statement:-

"APIKUR member companies have the right to sell their share of oil production (their entitlement oil) and the parties discussed how APIKUR member companies could sell oil to MoO/SOMO for subsequent transport through ITP."

So, "the parties discussed how APIKUR member companies could sell oil to MoO/SOMO."

No mention at all that the APIKUR proposal was rejected so the ICG were obviously receptive to it, the statement then says that the discussion was about HOW it could be implemented.

And we already know that that is how Crescent (Dana) have been selling their gas, so the precedent is there.

APIKUR then reiterated that existing commercial terms must remain in place, and the ICG/SOMO acknowledged that the contractual arrangements would need to be acceptable to both sides.

So the discussion was not about IF the oil can be sold to SOMO but about HOW the oil can be sold to SOMO and agreeing terms that are acceptable to both sides.

As Col.Caggins said after the meeting - "This meeting was an initial step...we anticipate future meetings with all stakeholders,"

The Iraqi delegation then returned to Baghdad to discuss it and chew it over with the powers that be. So let's hope we don't have long to wait before the next meeting.

Sounds promising.

[hugetakeaway] 10/11/2023 15:43

JakelaMottaPosts: 209Price: 119.70Strong BuyTakeover valuations after legitimisation of PSC?Today 08:49Its possible to use a variety of methodologies to value GKP.Net entitlement reserves are huge and have an NPV justifying a sale price well in excess of $ 4bn - around £14 /share+Currently the company is debt free - by now pushing $ 95-100m in the bank and generating annualised FCF/profits of approx $ 140m.When Baghdad capitulate as we are seeing is in progress, and exports resume , we are looking at $ 400-450 EBITDA for 2024.On a multiple of 12 - looking at $5bn valuation - $ 17/share.Given the prospectivity remaining in Shaikan and the incredibly low lift costs plus existing infra-stucture , the competition amongst majors to buy this interest in such a prized asset will be extremely high.Hence IMO takeover will be minimum £ 25 /share.

[bubblingup] 10/11/2023 15:30

hxxps://www.apikur.uk/publications/apikur-and-iraqi-government-officials-meet-in-dubai/

08 NOV 2023
APIKUR and Iraqi Government officials meet in Dubai
SHARE:
November 8, 2023

Key Points:
● APIKUR and Government of Iraq representatives met today in Dubai.
● APIKUR’s focus was to enable the rapid restart of oil exports via the ITP through a proposal for member companies to sell their entitlement oil to MoO/SOMO.

APIKUR representatives met with the Government of Iraq (GoI) representatives from the Ministry of Oil (MoO), the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO), and the North Oil Company in Dubai on November 8. This was the first meeting between the groups.

APIKUR and GoI representatives emphasized the urgency of resuming full oil production and exports to global energy markets under mutually acceptable commercial terms. As the most expedient way to resume exports through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline (ITP), APIKUR proposed that SOMO negotiate crude oil purchase/sale contracts with APIKUR members. Under their Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs), APIKUR member companies have the right to sell their share of oil production (their entitlement oil) and the parties discussed how APIKUR member companies could sell oil to MoO/SOMO for subsequent transport through ITP and onward sale to international markets.

APIKUR representatives indicated the APIKUR members will be able to resume full oil production when there is a clear, well-defined, legally-binding agreement on oil sales and export terms, including payments for past and future sales.

The GoI delegation acknowledged that past debts would have to be honoured and that contractual arrangements would have to be acceptable to all parties, including the Kurdistan Regional Government. APIKUR representatives reiterated that existing commercial terms must remain in place, and the existing PSCs are valid.

The people of Iraq—and in particular the Kurdistan Region—continue to suffer economically from the closure of the ITP and the absence of a commercial agreement that protects international investments and encourages future foreign investment. The members of APIKUR will continue to work with the GoI and the KRG to resolve outstanding issues and resume full production and export through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline for the benefit of all Iraqis.


- Ends -

[0ili0] 10/11/2023 15:30

£8 Tony 🍩63 and oil wife👰ㇰ9;. How could anyone forget 🐕↘A039;🚽

Real world 😂😂😂

[habshan] 10/11/2023 14:57

Bigdog - "Baghdad have received no benefit from the Kurd oil."

How on earth do you work that out.

The Kurd oil kept the Kurdistan region going (just) for years because Baghdad didn't want to send the Kurds the 12.6% share of the budget that they were legally entitled to.

It enabled the Kurds to finance themselves because Baghdad didn't want to do it.

So for all the time the Kurds were selling their own oil Baghdad was saving over $1 billion a month.

It saved Baghdad an absolute fortune.

You haven't got a clue have you.

[hugetakeaway] 10/11/2023 14:42

JakelaMottaPosts: 209Price: 119.70Strong BuyTakeover valuations after legitimisation of PSC?Today 08:49Its possible to use a variety of methodologies to value GKP.Net entitlement reserves are huge and have an NPV justifying a sale price well in excess of $ 4bn - around £14 /share+Currently the company is debt free - by now pushing $ 95-100m in the bank and generating annualised FCF/profits of approx $ 140m.When Baghdad capitulate as we are seeing is in progress, and exports resume , we are looking at $ 400-450 EBITDA for 2024.On a multiple of 12 - looking at $5bn valuation - $ 17/share.Given the prospectivity remaining in Shaikan and the incredibly low lift costs plus existing infra-stucture , the competition amongst majors to buy this interest in such a prized asset will be extremely high.Hence IMO takeover will be minimum £ 25 /share.

[pittcock] 10/11/2023 14:40

Doggy, dont waste time posting here today, you will miss your syphilis treatment down at the clap clinic.

[bigdog5] 10/11/2023 14:34

Day 231 of no pipe gullible fantasists. How many years of no production or local sales if this goes to court? share price would be suspended? Would Iraq take any notice of any outcome?

Some good posts from hangthedj and its most unlikely that Baghdad will pick up the debts incurred by the hosts. IF they were to it will be factored into the negs simply because Baghdad have received no benefit from the Kurd oil.

If you believe sarah is correct about Apikur having Baghdad over a barrel then you are more stupid than you suckers have ever proved before. Did RW get any of his views correct?? Join up the clues gullible suckers:-)

SOMO/Baghdad have taken control, will drive a very hard bargain due to the influence of the hard liners down South, the influence of Iran and they can't be seen to be offering up better terms to the Kurds than those available down South. $6pb on the table currently versus what the company were receiving!!! What was that about monthly divis you were all tugging over, lol.

SP at 1p after 14 years and you idiots think Majors are lining up to offer your ludicrous numbers!!! And you wonder why I come here to mock your stupidity, lol, lol.

[pittcock] 10/11/2023 14:25

All sorts of shenanigans have gone on in the past as we all know but now no oil will flow through the ITP unless back payments are made to the IOCs and PSCs are honoured.

[hangthedj] 10/11/2023 13:56

Thanks sniff, yes that seems logical explanation, bit like stealing IMO like.

[sniff_the_tip] 10/11/2023 13:50

"Ignoring the pipeline closure at the end of March there was some other reason KRG couldn't pay IOC's on schedule at the turn of the year and I would be interested to find out what changed."

Both Sudani and the KRG were aware the pipeline was going to be closed before the judgement was made public. They both traveled to Paris a few months before the judgement. With the KRG mafia knowing the pipeline was going to be closed, they thought they need to try and keep hold of as much cash as possible before their revenue stream was closed

[hangthedj] 10/11/2023 13:06

Don't think it has ever been revealed or even discussed as to why the KRG started to struggle to pay IOC's around the end of 2022.
A few months before the pipeline closed you could sense that payments were being stretched out and fairly obvious there was a problem (in hindsight).

Ignoring the pipeline closure at the end of March there was some other reason KRG couldn't pay IOC's on schedule at the turn of the year and I would be interested to find out what changed.

Only detail I know is the $290m stranded in Lebanon bank account which doesn't help.

Perhaps ICG were sending salaries or payments that were stopped around that time but can't find any confirmation of that.