Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[hugetakeaway] 14/11/2023 06:49

Iraq Oil Report Baghdad-Erbil oil diplomacy raises hopes for pipeline progressMOHAMMED HUSSEIN AND BEN VAN HEUVELEN OF IRAQ OIL REPORTTUESDAY, NOVEMBER 14TH, 2023SULAIMANIYA - Leaders in Baghdad have held several meetings in recent days aimed at restarting northern pipeline exports, including high-level talks in Erbil and a meeting with international oil companies in Dubai.The diplomacy has not yielded any definitive breakthrough yet, but the high-level composition of the delegations and the pace of their talks suggest there could be political backing and urgency to find at least temporary solutions to problems that have kept over 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude off of international markets since late March.

[hugetakeaway] 14/11/2023 06:43

HTTPS://x.com/111notout1/status/1724169386615828986?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw

[beernut1] 14/11/2023 06:34

Above was from yesterday so 10 am today

[beernut1] 14/11/2023 06:30

From Lse


Congratulations 🏆 Genel presentation 10am tomorrow on Investor Meet, they might not be able to say much about negotiations in progress, but will be listening in.

[beernut1] 14/11/2023 06:28

From CCC on Lse

Written as though IOC’s were there or agreements already made.?( what do others think)

Talks update.13 Nov 2023 17:34
In today’s meeting between energy officials from Baghdad and Erbil, Kurdistan 24 reported that the discussions were positive. The website said that the KRG delegation and International Oil Companies (IOCs) representatives advocated for increased costs in production, transportation, and oil expenditures in the Kurdistan Region.

Meanwhile, the Baghdad delegation presented their proposals.

The Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) is expected to publicly disclose the details of these proposals and the outcomes of their meetings with the Iraqi Ministry of Oil in the coming days. An unnamed source was cited by the website, revealing that the KRG has requested $22 to $24 per barrel as the cost for production and transportation of oil.

The Baghdad representatives have long insisted that these costs should align with the Federal Ministry of Oil's average cost for producing and transporting oil barrels. This stance reportedly has not been well-received by the IOCs, due to the differing contract types in the rest of Iraq compared to those in the KRI). Factors like geological challenges, security, and political risks also contribute to higher costs for IOCs operating in the KRI.

Despite previous delays, the current intensity of the talks indicates that a breakthrough may be imminent.

[shortsqueezer] 14/11/2023 06:19

Akipur had given the ICG at least two suggestions as a way out of the impasse. This would have been one of them I guess. So already preapproved to a degree.

[fairenough11] 14/11/2023 06:12

Adjust sounds so much better than change.Let's see what Apikur think.Hopefully it's acceptable and the exports can restart.
We wait for the response.

[highlander7] 14/11/2023 06:07

Maybe although it can also take a few weeks to get Process Plants up to speed and wells flowing as they were before the shutdown plus any pipeline issues that always occur after extended shutdowns.

[shortsqueezer] 14/11/2023 06:01

Do you think this is the reason that Akipur have stated that it will take a month to get the oil flowing following an agreement? I cant imagine it would take that long to physically move the oil.

[highlander7] 14/11/2023 05:53

As stated on here frequently Contracts cannot be changed unless ALL parties named in the Contract agree. So I would assume that the conditions in the new contracts will be at least equal to or better than the current ones. Any new agreements of course will have to be gone through line by line by Company Lawyers. Not a quick process, as you state.

However its a good solution IF APIKUR buy into it.

[shortsqueezer] 14/11/2023 05:47

Nice as it would be to have all back payments paid in one hit, I would think that they will be refunded on instalments. Either way, dividends to start flowing again very soon after the oil does.

[habshan] 14/11/2023 05:42

highlander - "#GKP IOC production sharing contracts to be changed to profit sharing contracts. Expect meetings with IOCs imminently to wrap this up...."

If confirmed it'll be interesting to see how APIKUR responds and the numbers involved.

They've said they'll also want to see a cast iron plan for the payment of the $1 billion arrears before they agree to start pumping for export again.

And the legal people will need to go through it all with a fine tooth comb to make sure it's all watertight before the contracts are signed so I wouldn't expect to see the pipeline reopened just yet.

And it's no good Abdul-Ghani talking about needing to change the contracts from PSCs to Profit Sharing contracts to bring them into line with the Constitution because the English High Court and the International Court of Arbitration have ruled that the PSCs are ALREADY in line with the Constitution so APIKUR still have that ace in their hand to fend off any nonsense when Ghani tries to beat them down.

The threat of arbitration is always there and Abdul-Ghani knows he couldn't win.

But if APIKUR make positive noises in today's meetings then I would certainly expect to see yesterday's share price momentum continue.

Fingers crossed.

[highlander7] 14/11/2023 05:22

Twitter..

john
@john78846295 9h

#GKP IOC production sharing contracts to be changed to profit sharing contracts. Expect meetings with IOCs imminently to wrap this up....

[bozzy_s] 14/11/2023 04:56

Did you hang on Katsy? Fingers crossed yesterday's rally wasn't another false dawn. It's a relief to see GKP at a 6 month high. Also means a higher starting point if the pipeline is reopened - could easily go above £2 in that event.

[shortsqueezer] 14/11/2023 04:53

Exxon have now exited Southern Iraq What to do now?Chinese Company Replaces Exxon At Major Iraqi Oil Field https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinese-Company-Replaces-Exxon-At-Major-Iraqi-Oil-Field.html

[shortsqueezer] 14/11/2023 04:47

All looking very likely now as the 6 quid a barrel was evidently a cynical stalling tactic which the ICG must have known would not be accepted. Dare I say that the ducks really are lining up now. Wish I had a bit more ISA allowance.

[luckyclicker] 14/11/2023 04:09

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/131120231

[luckyclicker] 14/11/2023 04:07

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Iraq's Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul-Ghani on Monday told Rudaw that both Erbil and Baghdad are working on adjusting the Region's contracts with the International Oil Companies (IOCs) to the Iraqi constitution and expressed optimism about a prompt resumption of Kurdish oil exports.

[justiceforthemany] 13/11/2023 21:33

Whats the profit sharing percentage at the moment? It appears to be very high - 35/40%? - if this number is reduced under Baghdad to say 20% then it takes care of production costs surely?

[arcadian] 13/11/2023 21:17

Thanks Habs.

Zais makes sense. Maybe they have done that already and we await confirmation hence Ghani`s optimism. We will wait and see where Ghani goes tomorrow.

Maybe he knows that he can alter the PSC to align with the 5th round bids and satisfy APIKUR`s request.

Oil flow will say it all.

[nestoframpers] 13/11/2023 21:11

ICG know there is tons of oil in KRI so they are trying it on. Waste of time as the PSCs are legal. AKIPUR will not be blinking 1st.

[habshan] 13/11/2023 21:03

"Iraq, KRG to adjust IOC contracts, resume oil exports: Oil minister."

This seems eminently doable surely, he's talking about an "adjustment" and according to Matthew Zais the PSCs are very similar to the contracts on offer under Iraq's 5th bid round which it sounds as though APIKUR would be happy with.

Anyway there's no point in them talking about any of this without the involvment of APIKUR as they'll have the final say.

Abdul-Ghani :- "The oil ministry has agreed with the KRG officials to hold meetings with the representatives of the IOCs in the Kurdistan Region, adding that they will try to reach a solution that satisfies all parties."

This is what Matthew Zais said about it last month:-

"We told the ICG that the proposal to pay us an average $6 a barrel isn't even how IOCs are paid in Federal Iraq, what we've said is why don't you treat us as you treat IOCs there, because the IOCs in Federal Iraq have very similar exploration and discovery contracts as ours under the 5th bid round, the 5th bid round contracts in Federal Iraq are very similar to the production sharing contracts in the Kurdistan region, so if we're an IOC in Federal Iraq they invoice the Ministry of Oil every quarter and get reimbursed their real costs of production and those are between $35 and $45 so all we've communicated to the Iraqi government is why don't you just treat us as you treat your own IOC's who have made similar investments. The $6 is arbitrary, it doesn't make commercial sense and is not in accordance with our commercial terms and it doesn't allow us to recover our investments."

[hugetakeaway] 13/11/2023 20:57

HTTPS://x.com/111notout1/status/1724169386615828986?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw.BOOOM