Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[mcfly02] 04/8/2019 15:25

Good Afternoon BigDog 😃

Such massive fractures on Shaikan the only problem is if they suck up water with pumps the zone is all but finished.

That came from inside the MNR.

[bigdog5] 04/8/2019 14:57

In agreement with JG? That was before I got the real story from those that really knew all about this con rather than what was being pedalled by those seeking to mislead.
I wonder if one day all will be made known?

Ten years on and they've been proved correct. Ten more years?

[bigdog5] 04/8/2019 14:33

JG yet another of the BS merchants under the Kozel regime that had it away with a swag bag. I seem to recall stating he had made a resignation speech that none of you agreed with. Then he resigned:-)

The fake reverend is going to make a return to give more sermons on a new FDP and CPR? LOFL.

How wonderful as we can then post up his sermons filled to spill with BS from years ago and compare them. Should be enlightening as he has always had a very optimistic take on math, costs and revenue generation. But as history has always proved none of his numbers ever come to pass. But it will give us more knowledgeable and very well connected peeps more fantasy to pull apart and laugh at. The City will watch with much keenness at the comedy to come.

Ten years on from the commencement of the great shai CON and new sermons from the Pulpit, how marvellous:-)

[habshan] 04/8/2019 13:19

That's the sort of thing that Bigdog used to say before he flipped.

In the days when he was in agreement with John Gerstenlaur's assessment of the field.

[nestoframpers] 04/8/2019 12:48

Quiz who said this?

"Shaikan is a bath of Oil with a few rocks thrown in it ".

[habshan] 04/8/2019 11:51

NoR - "when are we going have a good run on discussing the FP ? That is where it's at folks. Shaikan is as Kirkuk is , the most fractured reservoir out there ."

Maybe when we get to see the revised FDP and subsequent CPR and there's something for him to get his teeth into, Oil_Investor will decide it's worth the hassle and motivate himself to generate one of his 30+ green tick specials.

As I understand it he's still registered here as Oil_Investor1.

Oilman - "When is Bob going to use his Oil_Investor1 profile ?"

Let's hope so anyway, it would be good to see him back.

Oilman is clearly keen

[urals] 04/8/2019 08:31

Nestoframpers . If shares are required now to satisfy options vesting, over 18 months prior to normal award terms, tech speculation no point. A sale only circumstances that triggers early vesting , so shortly all that matters is how much. If it isn't a done deal then HY results, the FDP /CPR and a 12p dividend thanks to GBP weakness. Little to fret about!https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Forgot nestoframpers : sometime in August clearly looks the go for a sale, if disappointed then 12p is 5% yield for waiting 2-3 weeks, all good!

[stockport loser] 04/8/2019 08:16

Paul and Bill have got the Sunday early shift. Not exactly the A team but you can't get the staff these days eh Bob?

[urals] 04/8/2019 07:19

Nestoframpers . If shares are required now to satisfy options vesting, over 18 months prior to normal award terms, tech speculation no point. A sale only circumstances that triggers early vesting , so shortly all that matters is how much. If it isn't a done deal then HY results, the FDP /CPR and a 12p dividend thanks to GBP weakness. Little to fret about!

[chinese_takeaway] 03/8/2019 20:30

https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.

[chinese_takeaway] 03/8/2019 20:29

Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.

[chinese_takeaway] 03/8/2019 20:28

Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.

[chinese_takeaway] 03/8/2019 20:28

Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.

[stockport loser] 03/8/2019 20:27

Compared to the current market it is looking a bit toppy at the moment.Probably a good short if you can get 240/50. Strong short.

[chinese_takeaway] 03/8/2019 20:27

Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.

[bigdog5] 03/8/2019 20:27

Could it be the ex postman has finally realised he was talking BS and that's why he's disappeared and doesn't post under his multi names now? So he's sub contracted to the Chinese moron?

[chinese_takeaway] 03/8/2019 20:26

Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.

[chinese_takeaway] 03/8/2019 20:26

Is BIGDOG  up to 25,000 ,( he's paid by JPMORGAN to say don't buy or hold this stock by the way  ) posts yet ? 25000 ?But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and countingit appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.So Urals it appears that $24bn is not out of the question on that basis.north of £80 if so.Anyway it seems the deal is a month at most from announcement, so whatever the outcome will soon be clear.Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.

[bigdog5] 03/8/2019 20:24

Has Chinese got permission to deliver an ex postman's BS theories like he's been doing?

Won't that annoy nestof BS?

sarahgibbs will be most displeased.

[chinese_takeaway] 03/8/2019 20:22

Is he up to 25,000 JPMORGAN (say don't buy or hold this stock ) posts yet ? But JPMORGAN have somehow managed to buy 15,000,000 and counting :)

[bigdog5] 03/8/2019 20:22

Then of course DNO walked away.

They must have realised it wasn't worth even £1ps

[bigdog5] 03/8/2019 20:20

Perhaps the majors just viewed it as a Money pit and not worth the time and trouble.

Then of course there's the small issue of where it is, who to deal with and that heavy oil is so 1980's.