Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[urals] 03/8/2019 18:06

Actually Chinese these valuations are absurdly low.Back then WI was 54.3%, now its 80%.So you can increase these by 80/54.3= 47% higher ?https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.

[bigdog5] 02/8/2019 23:36

I wonder who was responsible for the 23 July 2012 article and who the source could have been? Could it have been the same person that was involved with Leftly and the mull? You see, none of the numbers have been proved which is why so many people view them as total BS and were just a means to assist with negotiations and troughing.

[bigdog5] 02/8/2019 23:09

Massive reserves, lofl. They didn't have any reserves back then, it was all BS to enable Kozel and his mates to trough.

Now there's around 340m P2 of very heavy oil and decreasing by the day.

Anything that was announced under the Kozel regime can be ignored and all has altered since then due to the many "issues" with the field n'est ce pas.

No takeaway again today.

[chinese_takeaway] 02/8/2019 19:47

https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19Gulf Keystone Petroleum: What Is The 14 Billion Barrel Shaikan Field Worth?Jul. 23, 2012 10:16 AMGulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GFKSY)CVX, XOM, GEGYFGulf Keystone Petroleum (OTCQX:GUKYF) (OTCQX:GFKSY) is a UK company exploring for oil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Gulf Keystone's main exchange is London and they are listed there under GKP.Long story short, in 2009, GKP discovered a massive field in the Shaikan PSC block of Kurdistan. Current estimates for OOIP are around 14 billion barrels with recoverable amounts of 2.25 billion barrels. You can read more about the field here.I think there is a lot of misinformation on what exactly GKP owns. In the following paragraphs, I will explain how much oil GKP has at Shaikan due to the terms of the Production Sharing Contract (NASDAQ:PSC) and also try to estimate what Shaikan is worth:Slide 6 of their most recent presentation shows recoverable oil in Shaikan of 2250 million barrels. The PSC is laid out here on slide 8. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) takes 10% off the top for royalty. Of the remaining 90%, 40% of this is allocated for the contractors to recover costs. The remaining 60% is the profit oil. Of this 60%, the contractors portion is determined by an R factor which is based on the contractors revenues divided by costs. The most they can receive of this 60% is 30% and the minimum is 15%.Let's work in gross terms for now (all numbers are in millions). From above we have 2250 recoverable oil in Shaikan. Take off 10% for KRG royalty and we are down to 2025. The cost recovery oil is 40% of this which is 810 leaving 1215 for profit oil. The contractors maximum claim to the profit oil is 30% which is 365.So far, the maximum the contractors have claim to is 810 barrels of cost recovery oil and 365 profit oil. In 2010, the PSC was amended and a Capacity Building Bonus was added that is 40% of the contractors profit oil. This leaves the contractors with 60% of the maximum profit oil which is 219.In total, the contractors can count 1029 barrels of oil as reserves down to a possible low of 919 by using the lowest possible percentage of profit oil. GKP's diluted WI is 54.3% in the Shaikan block. So in total, on the high side, 559 million barrels are net to GKP and the low side is 499 million barrels.Obviously it is the KRG who wins with these PSCs, however, the companies have to agree to them to be able to explore the blocks. The actual net reserves (559 MMbbls) GKP will have is around 46% of their WI barrels (2250 * 54.3%= 1222 MMbbls). It seems incredibly low, but this is typical of these types of contracts and the Shaikan PSC is actually much better than what Genel (OTCPK:GEGYF) has on the Taq Taq block. Genel is only netting out around 22% of their WI reserves.On the net worth side of these reserves, we can also look to Genel for some NPV values on Kurdistan reserves. According to the Genel website (Taq Taq and Tawke), Genel is valuing the finds at around $30/bbl NPV10. Applying this same valuation to Shaikan would value GKP's 559 million barrels at $16.77 billion. Current GKP market cap is around a paltry $3 billion. That is tremendous upside on Shaikan alone. GKP has many other assets along with Shaikan, including deeper targets below Shaikan.On the flip side, there are also many other things that have kept the valuation of the company down: the lawsuit with Excalibur, the lack of export capacity, the inability of Kurdistan and Iraq to agree on the oil and gas law, and just plain old political instability.The lawsuit with Excalibur seems like a shakedown that I am confident GKP will win. Excalibur has been asked to reveal who is backing them monetarily and I doubt they will do that so I believe the case will be dismissed.The lack of export capacity is going to be changed with a pipeline to Turkish ports that should be completed in late 2013. The instability of the region is, no doubt, a huge overhang. The recent entries of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) to Kurdistan should bring a little bit of calm to the region. The Iraqi government has already been dealt a huge blow in their last lease offering by placing a clause in the leases saying the contractors could not work with the Kurds. This was almost universally shunned and the sale was woefully undersubscribed.GKP has found massive amounts of oil at Shaikan and still has other assets to explore and appraise. As the aforementioned roadblocks slowly disappear, I would expect the share price to rise dramatically to bring more value to Shaikan. A 5x rise from here would not be out of the question. Watch for a takeover of GKP as well. XOM, CVX, or even another major would certainly love to get a piece of the massive reserves at Shaikan.

[mcfly02] 02/8/2019 19:38

Good Evening BigDog and Jamie 😃

Been a busy day down the secondhand spark plug factory but I note it's been a very quiet day on the LSE with only two posts all day 😱

When the main men in the finance team leave at the same time you know you can expect fun and games to come. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jon pack it in after hitting 55k target.

See the idiot writing his own version of history and talking to himself 🤡

Insignificant little man 😂

🐐🎥®

[chinese_takeaway] 02/8/2019 19:06

https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19

[broadford bay] 02/8/2019 19:06

bigdog,

you know my views on that.
I think I have the same opinion as Sami...

[chinese_takeaway] 02/8/2019 19:06

No it should have gone ex div the entire amount approx 17 ,.It actually went ex div just the first1/3That of course is idiocyBut it did encourage holders then to STAY holders waiting for another record date.The co just keeping minority holders in the loopSale incoming, so hold.https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19

[nestoframpers] 02/8/2019 18:55

Did a search see whats there, I think you will not as from memory the date for ex divi was the 26th.

[billvernon] 02/8/2019 18:27

evening gents....scary drop at opening this morning...but an ok recovery. a few weeks ago i posted here asking if a person who bought gkp the day after it went ex dividend will get a sniff in with the 2nd payment....whenever it is announced. the only answer i got was someone telling me it won't be paid at all because the share is going to 43 quid due to a take-over....hmmm..well, sure BUT if that turns out to be pie in the sky...can someone tell me as an owner since 27 june do i qualify for 2nd div. payment? also, while i'm at it, i've looked everywhere to seek out half yearly results date....any info when? tnks.

[urals] 02/8/2019 18:16

Next week latest two in my view.https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19

[bigdog5] 02/8/2019 18:13

If the company are being "requested" to alter their plans I wonder if that renders the "we are fully funded" null and void?

[urals] 02/8/2019 18:13

https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1157302206665764864?s=19

[bigdog5] 02/8/2019 17:37

Why does the ex postman hide behind different names?

[0ili0] 02/8/2019 17:29

Disappointed they didn't round it up to 141k. Still, not too shabby.

[habshan] 02/8/2019 17:22

Did we buy any back today?

Date of purchase

2 August 2019

Number of Ordinary Shares purchased

140,900

[bigdog5] 02/8/2019 17:16

Hey mcfly, re the alteration to the priority of the wells, could one be having major problems and needs to be replaced? That would account for the lower projected production numbers from the company.

[0ili0] 02/8/2019 17:14

Did we buy any back today?

[roverite12] 02/8/2019 16:09

If things were as bad as the OilyInfant implies then the obvious questions are ....why doesn't he sell up ?

Why continue to waste time writing about a duff company every single day on the bulletin boards ?

Why spend money on a toy drone to send to Kurdistan to spy on some useless oilfield ?


The obvious answer is the simplest - the bloke is a fraudster . Nothing more , nothing less

[bigdog5] 02/8/2019 15:28

It's why I say its real risky because of S7. And installing ESP's on some of the wells could just make the issues worse.

As regards Sami it looks as though there's been a difference of opinions. He would know how much is needed to be spent and handing out divis and wasting funds on buybacks, lol? Will JF joins him.

Their hyped plans alter all the time due to failures. They really don't look up to the job imo.

The Triassic plan I certainly wouldn't leave to the current "experts".

The costs and risks are enormous and any issues they currently have with the field could multiply. But as we know, the MNR don't take them, they just make sure they get what they want. An increased take tax looks to be on the cards. Will the PSC survive or be tweaked massively in their favour? What could the FDP cost now?

[welshki] 02/8/2019 15:26

"Ignore the village idiot because if it's not in an RNS he hasn't a clue"

again oilman, googling "irony" is just a few clicks away, it would really help with not embarrassing yourself any further

and dont worry trumpdog was only ever going to ignore all those questions, he always does......... i mean how do you respond to questions you just dont have the answers to and when such queries highlight that you're a liar?

"Why's Sami leaving again"

more to the point, as you have better contact and know more than you ever have, why didnt you know he was leaving in the first place?

and why does it matter? no insti has sold on the news or reason behind it, and even if you knew you cant have sold any shares on that basis as that would be illegal.....so again, why is anything you say of any importance, like at all?

[mcfly02] 02/8/2019 14:48

BigDog,

Ignore the village idiot because if it's not in an RNS he hasn't a clue 🤡

Why's Sami leaving again ???