Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[cutthecagain] 16/10/2016 15:39

To the clueless clowns that think it would have been so much better with Todd, it's a fantasy. As soon as all this info re Gokana came out SEC would have been all over GKP if Todd was still CEO. They had already been in over Gokana in the Summer of 2012. Have a look at the scale of SEC fines for insider trading and then there's the P&D that *would* need investigating due to the timing of the trades. I don't think many companies of this size survive something like that so it would have been game over anyway IMO.

As I understand it the SEC fines don't get distributed to wronged shareholders so that's another fantasy ending quashed.

[cutthecagain] 16/10/2016 14:55

Good for you Daf

How many shares did you keep and how many did you subscribe for in the OO? If / as long as you can get a price above the OO it's a success.

I expect the conversation will be the same old same old until/if it ends up in a court IMO.

BTW OI this raising money concept after the CC (assuming you're telling the truth it's difficult when your track record is as poor as it is to know when you are), how do you know they weren't thinking of bonds after the CC? It was a hard sell for Ewen when he eventually went for them.

They couldn't have done a placing or OO after standing up at ID and saying they weren't going to dilute shareholders any more. That would be around the time Inga was signing up for her 12 million dollar pad that (according to docs) Gokana own.

[dafydd123] 16/10/2016 14:51

Afternoon chaps! Haven't been around these parts for weeks if not a month or so. Had a quick look at the last 150 or so posts. Basically the same sort of posts if you chose 150 from any previous ones for the past 2 years.!

So, I bailed a while back but kept a few for that "just in case Exxon rocked up" scenario. I also took up the open offer on those shares and was quite greedy in picking up a few extra at that offer price. Anyway, I thought the offer was over subscribed? The reason I ask is that I have received all the shares that I asked for? What have others received? Did you get them all?

[joseki] 16/10/2016 14:48

The answers were in the Muppets Munch

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 14:48

No wonder the bond doods want to make like a shepherd, pronto.

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 14:47

what could possibly go wrong?

[fairenough11] 16/10/2016 14:45

Why do you care?

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 14:43

So, it's like having a 5L V12 Supercharged car but with a 1.6L Diesel Exhaust!

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 14:41

who, so I'm told are Kurds not Arabs.

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 14:33

it's never going to be fine, it's in Kurdistan....

[oil_investor] 16/10/2016 13:10

The Market Capitalisation, following Lord Justice Christopher Clarke's demolition of the Excalibur claim in September 2013, was around £2 billion.

On what possible basis can anyone argue that it would not have been possible to raise c. £160 million via a Rights Issue or Open Offer (together with a possible Placing) at that time?

It represented no more than some EIGHT PER CENT of the shares-in-issue at the time.

[oil_investor] 16/10/2016 13:04

WildRider7: I think Oilman63 is just making it up or is being led up the garden path by someone. Mary Hood (former Acting CFO and former Deputy CFO) has said "we could have raised the $250m in September 2013 (i.e. when the Judge gave the Excalibur verdict) and looking back on it, perhaps we should have".

[oil_investor] 16/10/2016 12:55

Oh dear.

Nicebut is wrong again!

He had been posting since February 2016 about the supposed 12.8 billion barrels typo. Then, unable to give his source for that figure (it actually being himself) he has now admitted he was wrong, and that it was 9.38 billion barrels.

He now says that the 9.38 billion barrels figure, in the AAPG slide, was already being discussed on here for 8 months (or whatever) before I got Jon Ferrier to investigate the concealment by John Stafford and Anastasia Vvedenskaya of the AAPG presentation in which it appeared and then release it.

NO NO NO

All that was available, until Jon Ferrier ordered the release of the AAPG presentation in October 2015 following investigation, was the ABSTRACT which was (and remains) on the AAPG website.

It's unclear whether Nicebut is getting these things wrong himself, or whether he is being fed them.

[terry hardacre] 16/10/2016 12:52

No advice intendedNo advice taken.

[kammi1] 16/10/2016 12:47

Hi, hear lot of doom and gloom. I had no shares in this company till last week , been buying since it came under 1.5p. intend to keep buying as we are in a turn around for oil price. lovely to hear you lot are so negative. please keep selling as I will be a buyer. I have a feeling this will turn around soon do you remember QXL!
No advice intended just commenting on the thread.Ha Ha.

[mr roper] 16/10/2016 12:44

Should contrarian investors jump on Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited and Tullow Oil plc?




By The Motley Fool Sep 23, 2016


It's been a rough few years for all oil companies amid plummeting prices. But times have been tougher for heavily indebted Kurdish producer Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE: GKP). Yet with good news on the debt front is now the time to begin considering shares of GKP?

Optimism around the firm stems from creditors' acceptance of a debt-for-equity swap that will see net debt reduced from $600m to $100m. For a company whose market cap is currently hovering around £67m, it's understandable why this was a major relief for shareholders, even if significant dilution is on the cards.

However, investors should be ask whether this agreement is merely a plaster to keep the company solvent for a few more years or if the company's underlying fundamentals have changed for the better.

GKP's primary problem, low oil prices, won't be fixed overnight and there's unfortunately nothing it can do to alter the current supply glut affecting global markets.

The next issue for GKP, the failure of the Kurdish Regional Government to pay the company for oil produced, has been partially ameliorated with payments of $97.5m from the government through the first six months of the year for current and past production. But problems on this front may be beginning anew as the company disclosed in interim results on Thursday that it had yet to receive payment for July and August production.


Third, unbearably expensive debt repayments will be considerably reduced by the deal. We won't know until the next results period what monthly interest to creditors will be, but it will be far lower than the $35.7m spent on financing costs in the first six months of the year.

At the end of the day though, despite low production costs, GKP is still running an operating loss due to high transportation costs and low prices for its lower-quality oil, a problem that won't be going away as its capital-intensive primary Shaikan field requires higher and higher investment to maintain output levels. The debt agreement is a step in the right direction but fundamental problems are still enough to keep me away from shares.

[oilman63] 16/10/2016 12:43

As for the debt we all know, Asher, Denning and Dobell (the puppet masters behind the Shagers) insisted on DEBT over EQUITY.

Wildrider you keep saying this but can you show proof ???

As far as I am aware Todd went cap in hand to the institutions and they refused too stump up anymore money unless he and Simon stepped down.

So Todd took the only option open to him..........BONDS.

[mr roper] 16/10/2016 12:41

Small Caps: Gulf Keystone’s setbacks translate into losses


The oil producer provides a reminder of the perils of investing in small oil and gas explorers

October 14, 2016 by: Andrew Ward, Energy Editor



For investors in Gulf Keystone, this was the week when they finally felt the losses from all the setbacks suffered by the Kurdistan-focused oil producer.


A capital restructuring completed on Thursday kept the company afloat, but at the cost of heavy dilution to shareholders through the conversion of $500m of debt into equity.

Jón Ferrier, chief executive, said the deal with creditors marked a fresh start for a company that has struggled to deliver on the promise of its large reserves in Kurdish northern Iraq as the region has suffered continued political violence.




“We have new management, a new board and a much healthier balance of cash and debt,” he said. “It’s a different company to what’s gone before.”

But Gulf Keystone’s closing price of 1.18p on Friday — 99 per cent below its all-time high of 465p in 2012 — provides a reminder of the perils investing in small oil and gas explorers at a time of renewed interest in the sector.

Signs of stabilisation in the oil market have led many investors to conclude that the worst is over for energy companies after the oil price collapse of the past two years.

This week, oil rose to a year-high of $53.20 a barrel after Russian president Vladimir Putin voiced his support for efforts by Opec countries to agree a production cap.

Further falls in sterling — on fears that a “hard Brexit” will damage the UK economy — have provided further reasons to invest in London-listed oil stocks, whose assets and revenues are measured in dollars.

Ithaca Energy and Faroe Petroleum, as well as the larger Cairn Energy and Premier Oil, are among those to have registered double-digit percentage increases in their share prices this year. Others have seen even bigger rises.




Hurricane Energy

The North Sea had fallen out of fashion with oil explorers even before the crash in crude prices exposed its high cost base and declining reserves. However, pockets of opportunity still exist, especially on the frontier with the Atlantic Ocean west of the Shetland Islands.

Hurricane Energy is among those betting on the area’s untapped potential and, last month, it announced that the latest drilling in its Lancaster field suggested the presence of resources “significantly greater” than an earlier estimate of 200m barrels. Malcolm Graham-Wood, founding partner of HydroCarbon Capital, an advisory firm, said this would amount to a “game-changing discovery” for the UK continental shelf. Shares in Hurricane have almost quadrupled so far this year.

Sound Energy

Africa remains a keen focus of London-listed explorers including Sound Energy, shares in which have risen fivefold over the past six months on the back of encouraging drilling in Morocco.

In August, the company confirmed that it had made a “material̶1; gas discovery with the potential to “transformR21; the Moroccan gas industry.

Mr Graham-Wood was among a group of analysts and investors who toured the company’s site this week and reported that a potential pipeline from the field was “as easy and as economic as it gets”.

SDX Energy

Another big riser is SDX Energy, which this week announced positive seismic data from exploration in Egypt. Any further discoveries would add to the steady oil and gas production it already has from two onshore fields in the country. Shares in the group are up 41 per cent in the past six months.

Paul Welch, chief executive, said the company’s strong balance sheet was as much a part of its appeal as its resources. “If you went into the downturn with a bunch of debt, you had to scramble to avoid a crisis,” he noted. “We didn’t have that. Our operating costs are also relatively low; we can generate cash flow with crude prices as low as $30.”

Battle-scarred shareholders in Gulf Keystone may recall that its investment case once seemed just as rosy as that of today’s favourites. But Mr Ferrier insists that, with its debts now reduced to a manageable level and Isis militants in retreat in Iraq, the company is once again an attractive proposition. Exports are flowing from its Shaikan field via a pipeline from the Turkish border and, while the company is still owed large sums by the cash-strapped Kurdish government, payments are gradually being made.

A $300m takeover offer for Gulf Keystone from DNO, the Norwegian oil explorer, made earlier this year but conditional on a successful capital restructuring, may now come back into focus.

However, Mr Ferrier said there were no active discussions under way. “We no longer need a deal,” he said. “We’re focused on delivery.”

[wildrider7] 16/10/2016 12:35

'aim the blame in the wrong direction'

if the cap fit Cutthecagain

in my case it is an observation. We ended up with the board of YOUR (Sha'gers) choosing. This is a FACT

as for the debt we all know, Asher, Denning and Dobell (the puppet masters behind the Shagers) insisted on DEBT over EQUITY

[nicebut] 16/10/2016 12:32

O_I,

No- You knew what it said at the top of the 9.3bn presentation- which is why you campaigned to have it released- for c8 months. But when it was released, it made you look very foolish indeed.
Hence why you are nicknamed, rather aptly `Typo`....for obvious reasons.

What else was concealed in `12?

Well as was shown last week- SA-1 test results were still being concealed then we have the small matter of the brewing storm- which you referred to as `a storm in a tea cup`- How wrong were you?

Sh-6 testing was concealed. So just when TK wanted max hype, with `his` XOM take-over stories- which you were also spamming the boards with- there were the 2 drills test results being concealed in `12 -SA1 and SH-6. They went ahead and upped the OIP though didn`t they. So I can see why they said no more `Kurdistan operational updates`- As they have to update on those two- Much easier to bury it by not talking about it, isn`t it?

Joanna Southcott JS- - John Stafford- I`ve only just realised too...

IMO