Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 10:12

Einstein defined insanity as, doing the same thing over and over without changing anything and expecting a different outcome....

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 10:11

@lifeson

what has changed to make it any different than last time around?

deal with facts not hope.

[lifeson] 16/10/2016 10:09

Good morning fellow investors and strangely ever-present non-holders. It would seem from the BB activity post restructure that we will still have the delightful company of the same boys and girls that are not aligned with the hopes of us genuine GKP shareholders.

Let's hope that good news (or indeed any news!) will now start flowing regarding payments, back-costs, reserves updates, political improvements, increased production / improved infrastructure, improvements to GKP personnel, etc.

This has been a sobering experience for all LTH's but based on my full OO 0.83p entitlement along with the shares I purchased at 2.1p and 1.4p I personally remain very optimistic on a very good return here albeit not the one I had once hoped for.

Whether we like it or not our fates are now tied to those of the majority, the Note Holders. I now trust that they will want maximum return on IMO, a massively valuable asset and that the City will accommodate this just as they did all the way down from £4 plus to 1.2p.

I wish the very best of good fortune to all fellow sufferers / investors, I think we are due some.

lifeson

[bouka1] 16/10/2016 10:01

GKP NEED TO GET RID OF ALL MANAGEMENT TEAM

[bouka1] 16/10/2016 10:01

HSBC IS A BAD SHARE DEALING ACCOUNT

[slider27] 16/10/2016 09:58

JF and the rest of the troughing muppets on the BOD agreed with the KRG 6 mths ago to forefit the BIR's ca 100mil $ for and extra 3,5% of SH taking GKP to 58% of SH

6 months later the same JF and cohorts give away 49,3 % to the BH's for 500 mil $

How they hell anyone could now trust these criminals with thier hard earned is a mystery to me

[joseki] 16/10/2016 09:57

wow, so much to say and rant about with "stronger position", a casual introductory opinion from someone that was newly leading the business.

Complete silence on the Muppets Munch, except Wildrider's admission that their gang were indeed sat in front of Stafford, otherwise how would I have know? (being Stafford, close to Stafford, indirectly leaked through Stafford) And here Bob Waterhouse produced his fantastic story of concealment about Shaikan and Stafford laughed in their faces.

They now want John Stafford fired. wonder why.

it has only just dawned on me that they used Joanna Southcott's box as reference because only of the same JS initials. how utterly pointless, verbose and unwitty.

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 09:55

a bit like Langbar, people couldn't believe the valuation considering it had $350m in a bank in Brazil, confirmed by some Swiss outfit......

it seemed too good to be true....

[nicebut] 16/10/2016 09:55

...it isn`t `soon to be 55K either`....that will be ages and another money raise.

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 09:53

the numbers just do not compute, thus all you're left with, is, that it's not pukka

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 09:51

yeah, but they're African not Arabs.

[fairenough11] 16/10/2016 09:49

OI,

Just guide me to where I can buy 360mbls of reserves,which are producing 40kbopd-soon to be 55kbopd,where the dev hasn't even scratched the surface yet and where there is $700m to claim back via PSC terms/owings/bir cash and where the lifting costs are around $4 a barrel,
for £270m?
Thanks in advance.
===================================================================================
When oil was just over $30 a barrel.

BPCL eyes 10% in Kenya oil block
Piyush Pandey | TNN | Sep 26, 2015, 04.10 AM IST
MUMBAI: Encouraged by depressed crude prices, state-owned oil retailer Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) is in talks with UK-based Tullow Oil to buy a 10% stake in its discovered oil block in the South Lokichar Basin in Kenya with an estimated one billion barrels of oil reserves, of which 600 million barrels may be recoverable.

At current oil prices, the resource potential is valued at $27 billion and BPCL may have to shell out about $2.7 billion, depending upon the recoverable resource potential of the block, said sources in the know.....

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 09:47

this is what happens when you're dealing with savages

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 09:45

if you could pick up a 55k bopd net cash $600m company and stick it in the North Sea, bingo £2-3bn mcap instantly.

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 09:42

if it's owed $700m does that infer that it has, in theory, a net cash position of $600m?

[nicebut] 16/10/2016 09:41

I think part of your `problems` is that you over analyse certain words to the detriment of other things going on around you. It`s pretty clear what Lough means but somehow you twist it around.

A case in point was your 8 month bandwagon about 9.3bn reserves/resources when they meant OIP. How much effort did you expend on that little fiasco? Southcotts box non-sense...you took your eye off the ball- The important stuff was the bond payments, being paid properly by the KRG , PoO etc etc...How many posts on those subjects from you around that time eh? Pretty much none.

It`s why I say you have zero situational awareness.

[nestoframpers] 16/10/2016 09:35

BHs committee was I guess mainly houlaham lockey? or similar

[oil_investor] 16/10/2016 09:32

HERE IS A PUZZLE

(as if we were not short of them lol)

Chairman Keith Lough said on Thursday 13 October 2016 that GKP is "now in a far stronger position than it has been for several years and we can look forward to continuing to develop Shaikan and rebuilding value for all stakeholders".

What - exactly - did he mean by that?

At the Excalibur trial in 2013, Jonathan Gaisman QC (for GKP) said to Excalibur's Rex Wempen "Words have meaning". So let us look at Keith Lough's words.

He is clearly saying that GKP was in a far weaker position than it is now for SEVERAL YEARS. What does that mean, exactly? Chambers defines "several" as "more than one, usually more than three, but not very many". How far back is he looking? I don't know, but it is certainly well beyond the share price slide which followed Jon Ferrier's appointment in June 2015. If one were to interpret it as three years, say, then it takes us back to 2013. So on that basis, Keith Lough is indicating that there has been something wrong since 2013, maybe even earlier? What exactly was it? He doesn't say. One can assume that he means the bonds, but he might not.

Now let's look at something which is perhaps more important from an investment perspective, because the above paragraph is more to do with "what has been going on at this LSE Main Listed company": his reference to REBUILDING VALUE FOR ALL STAKEHOLDERS.

Firstly, who does he mean by the "stakeholders"? He cannot mean the bond holders, because there now aren't any (except for the $100m new 10% bonds, which do not have any upside, because they are purely a loan. He potentially means the current shareholders...and the KRG. Arguably MOL as well. This makes sense, because all three have stakes in Shaikan.

Secondly, he refers to "rebuilding value". Look at the word "rebuild". It is a verb, with a prime meaning "to build something (again) after it has been damaged or destroyed" according to Miriam-Webster. They give further examples: "to make extensive repairs to", "to restore to a previous state", "He rebuilt his house after it was destroyed by a fire" and "They tried to rebuild after the earthquake".

Of course, one can say that the Chairman's words have no meaning. Well that's very helpful...what is he going to communicate with, as the alternative? Grunts?

Now I'm ready to introduce the puzzle, as follows:

If GKP is currently correctly valued by the market on its Reserves and Resources, then what the Chairman has said just three days ago cannot possibly be true.

Because there could not possibly be any upside in such a situation!

It's like having £100 in your bank account. There cannot possibly be any upside in that amount, it simply "is what it is".

So what is Keith Lough referring to? Does he mean that the Reserves and Resources which are at Shaikan are correctly valued by the market, per barrel, but that there are more of them than the market thinks?

Or does he mean that they are being underpriced by the market?

Or does he mean that there is a combination of both?

One cannot "rebuild" the value of an asset which is already correctly valued by the market. The notion is incoherent.

I note, in this context, something which the recently-departed Legal and Commercial Director said at the recent SGM: "the Reserves are huge, and they are real".

Just a post-breakfast mull.

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 09:31

IT'S TOO BIG TO SHARE.

[deanroberthunt] 16/10/2016 09:30

fairenough11
15 Oct '16 - 20:05 - 523237 of 523300 8 2
So,we are where we are.

£270m valuation for 360mbbls of reserves,where they have only scratched the surface of the resource and where we we have around $700m capex/owings to claim back and 40kbopd production soon to be 55kbopd.

Using any measure,we are anything between x5-x10 undervalued imo.

Good luck to those who still hold.You deserve to be rewarded.

Trouble is it's all a con, was last time, will be so again....shareholders, normal folk, will never see true value.....this is more corrupt than a Chinese venture in Africa.