Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[arcadian] 02/4/2024 12:07

Surely Sudani must know who they are. Why take them?

From 559 above

He stressed that "some officials in the government of Muhammad Shia al-Sudani and the Federal Ministry of Oil are seeking to obstruct the resumption of the export of Kurdistan Region's oil, and they have a plan to undermine the constitutional entity of the region."

[hugetakeaway] 02/4/2024 10:43

Drilling deep for oil here today... Lol

[petebreeze37] 02/4/2024 09:36

I'm not convinced that the USA needs to stay in Iraq to protect against Isis, some say that Isis were started by the CIA, which I could well believe.
Secondly, if the USA peace, and let's get back to using the pipeline talks, fails, can the Kurds start trucking to ceyhan and have their local sales as well. Would seem like a plan to me.

[hugetakeaway] 02/4/2024 09:00

Expect LTIP this week, but agree if they haven't surfaced by Friday, that is significant deviation . As was the rejig of share capital after 12 years. https://x.com/111notout1/status/1775063832114729022?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw#gkp #gkptakeoverFY results this year was 21/3, so LTIP well overdue , may still arrive ?@Gulf_Keystone can be accused of many things over the years but being tardy in inserting nostrils into the trough isn't one of them.

[hydrocarbon1] 02/4/2024 08:52

Just sitting back and enjoying retirement, ocean and delicious food.

[hydrocarbon1] 02/4/2024 08:46

LOL Fair enough!!!

[furenstaurus] 02/4/2024 08:34

https://x.com/111notout1/status/1775063832114729022?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw#gkp #gkptakeoverFY results this year was 21/3, so LTIP well overdue , may still arrive ?@Gulf_Keystone can be accused of many things over the years but being tardy in inserting nostrils into the trough isn't one of them.

[hydrocarbon1] 02/4/2024 08:25

OH your opinion again.

[furenstaurus] 02/4/2024 08:16

https://x.com/111notout1/status/1775052097563611581?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw#gkp #gkptakeover Still no 2024 LTIP awards...been awarded religiously < week/ day or two of FY results for years.Well they may still come , IMO if they don't come this week, along with the share capital tidy up,points to an agreed sale is done.

[furenstaurus] 02/4/2024 07:50

No annual LTIP awards yet..https://x.com/chicagojack5/status/1774758577338556665?s=61&t=EEAJRmerpfLiAmForyb8Dw

[0ili0] 01/4/2024 21:28

This one's funnier:


"UK journalist Tobsha Learner reckons so. And she should know - she's sleeping with a gent whose not exactly the skinny type.

"He boasts an undulating belly and resembles a somewhat overripe rugby full back," she writes in the Times Online. And he's proud of it to boot.

"Like a Paddington Bear with dangly bits, he seems to take a huge [and enviable] delight in striding around the bedroom naked, admiring himself in the mirror. You have to love him for it, and I do ..."

By her reckoning, the best thing about dating a corpulent bloke, (aside from the fact he has "heavier thighs" than her), is that he "revels in his wine, his chocolate and his cheese - and he loves his shape."

[johnbuysghost] 01/4/2024 20:54

Why does Santa have a full sack?

Because he only comes once a year.

[furenstaurus] 01/4/2024 20:47

Fill yer boots

[piyushvora] 01/4/2024 20:10

https://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/pipeline-repairs-raise-prospect-of-alternate-turkey-export-route-46408/

[johnbuysghost] 01/4/2024 19:59

Everyone on the street holds GKP for at least £110 per share.

Make of this revelation what you will.

[confused _gerbill] 01/4/2024 19:50

Good find but after reading that article I ended up with splinters in my a$$ :)

[dudishes] 01/4/2024 19:35

Are you long Habs?

[habshan] 01/4/2024 19:06

"The Sudanese visit will focus on issues related to the Kurdistan Region, especially the oil issue."

A translation from Draw Media.

1st April - Sudanese visit to the White House: Signs and expected results.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani is scheduled to make his first visit to the White House on April 15, 2024, amid tensions in the Middle East and the smoke of the Gaza war. Visits to the United States have been a common political and diplomatic tradition for Iraqi prime ministers since 2003, but Sudani heads the "Shiite Coordination Framework" cabinet, which considers itself an opponent of the United States. This commentary takes a position on the signs, consequences and effects of the expected visit.

Composition of the delegation and the importance of the visit to Sudani.

Preparations for the visit are being made by an advisory team to the Iraqi prime minister and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein. The Sudanese accompanying delegation to the United States will include the Minister of Finance, the Governor of the Central Bank, the Minister of Commerce, the Minister of Oil, the Minister of Electricity and the Minister of Culture. Representatives from the Kurdistan Region are expected to accompany them. Although the visit is official and the main topic is relations between the two states of Iraq and the United States, but for Sudanese political figures, it is of special importance, because appearing in the White House officially, one of the ways to show as an acceptable political character to the countries involved in the Iraqi issue. According to some experts, an official appearance alongside the US president is a golden standard for gathering support inside and outside Iraq; For someone like Sudani, it could strengthen his chances in the 2025 elections. What supports this view is the weakness of the loyalties of most Shiite forces in the coordination framework in the West, especially since the current government is accused of Iranian alliance and backwardness and is often one of the targets of the Israeli lobby.

On a personal level, it is important for Sudani to appear as a statesman and compensate for some of the shortcomings of his political leadership in foreign relations, because he is a second generation of Shiite politicians who have been inside Iraq.

Along with the semi-consensus on the importance of the visit, there is a tendency on the part of Sudanese rivals among the Shiites to downplay the importance of the visit on the grounds that "all signs confirm that Biden is leaving and Trump is coming. "We saw how Trump ignored everything before him in the previous term," critics said. But others believe the Republicans also have interests in Iraq, such as Honywell, a pro-Republican energy company in the United States, Sudani has recently renewed its natural gas contracts. This could be in preparation for a possible Republican return to the White House. This company is one of the first US companies to have contracts in the field of natural gas in Iraq.
However, there is still an opinion that the whole visit is "protocol" and will not lead to major agreements other than the previous ones. There is so much that in the financial case, Sudan may make some demands for the sanctioned banks. The United States does not have to agree to everything Sudanese demands, especially in the fields of security and military; Especially as the United States is facing elections and the possibility of change in the US administration is open.

General topics of the visit.

According to official statements, the main topics of Sudan's visit to Washington include bilateral relations, the future of US forces in Iraq, electricity, natural gas and energy, encouraging US companies to invest, education and higher education assistance and support American in the fields of culture and museums; In addition, economic and trade issues will be strongly present, including banking facilities and more dollars Iraq, while trying to find a way for Iraq to transfer money for Iranian natural gas imports ($10 billion) through Canadian banks to avoid sanctions against its own banks. If these general titles are examined, each of them has different obstacles and incentives. Two of the most important are military and security issues, as well as finance and dollars:

Security and army issues:

Under pressure from Shiite armed groups and the consequences of the Gaza war, the Iraqi government announced in early 2024 that it had begun talks with the United States on three topics: the threat of ISIS, strengthening Iraqi security forces; Security relations between the two sides should be promoted to a bilateral level in accordance with the signed Iraq-US Strategic Agreement.

Since this development, all Iraqi official statements have emphasized the importance of reaching the end of the mission of the international coalition against ISIS to convince the Shiite groups that are currently in a state of ceasefire. Shiite groups, meanwhile, continue to pressure the United States to "end Washington's interference in the withdrawal of military bases and lift its dominance over Iraq's arms contracts America in Iraq, Elena Romanowski. The visit warned that ISIS was still a threat, and that there was no talk of ending the ISIS coalition! Meanwhile, Ian McCarthy, the US envoy to the international coalition against ISIS, has made it clear that "there are currently no plans to withdraw its forces from Iraq. This means that the Sudanese visit is unlikely to change anything in the security and military balance, then the situation is open to the resumption of activities of armed groups and their insistence on US withdrawal after 2020 and the killing of Suleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

In practice, the withdrawal of US troops is beyond the capacity of the Sudanese and Iraqi governments for several reasons:
- The Biden administration will not take such a risk in an election year, especially since the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan has not yet been resolved.
- The Gaza war, Israel's security and the security of other US allies in the region (Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and other countries prevent the sudden withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and leave it to the Iranian factions.

- Most of the Iraqi military systems and equipment are American and without US advisors and without US updates will face many problems and crises, and Iraq can not insist much.
- With the US withdrawal as the Shiite groups want, Iraq will be in trouble with European countries and NATO members, because none of them are ready to cooperate and stay in the war against ISIS without the US.

- The Iraqi army and the country's security system are not able to fight external threats without US support; Especially since ISIS and the possibility of a repeat of the 2014 scenario is always a threat.
- Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein openly stated in Washington that Kurds, Sunnis and some Shiites are not in favor of the withdrawal of US troops at present and have reasons for this, but the Shiites have not said this openly. This fact, which was revealed in a recent parliamentary session, in itself further complicates the issue of withdrawal and increases the justification for the Americans to stay, contrary to the wishes of the groups and playing with words in official Iraqi government statements.

- Outside the Iraqi equation, if the international coalition against ISIS disappears, the Americans can no longer legally make Iraq a base to support their small military force in Syria; The Eastern Euphrates force, although small in number (900 troops), but against the position of Russia and Iran, will ensure a position for the United States in Syria. The US withdrawal there will also provide an opportunity for ISIS to return to some troubled areas; This will undermine the gains of the US-led coalition war against ISIS. It is clear that any gap in the country, if not filled by ISIS, will be the position of Iran and Russia. This is an undesirable scenario for the United States and the current administration.

According to the available signs, the United States may change some of the size and number of its forces in Iraq, but in any case, what the Shiite groups expect and try to end US military hegemony and withdrawal of troops after the Sudanese visit The 2008 Strategic Framework Agreement has made bilateral relations long-term.

Dossier and Economy:

In the Shiite political center, Sudan's visit, in addition to "reaching an agreement to withdraw the US military and end the mission of the international coalition," another main goal is to lift sanctions on the dollar and trust the United States to ease sanctions. US responsibility for this 20-year-old issue is linked to Washington's legal hegemony over Iraqi oil revenues in dollars under Iraq's agreement with Paul Bremer (2004) is one of the concerns of Shiite forces, especially after the recent US sanctions against Shiite financial institutions on charges of aiding sanctioned Iranian financial institutions. There are constant concerns that the United States is using its legal power over Iraqi oil revenues to exert political pressure.

Hadi Amiri, one of the leaders of the Shiite framework, insists that Iraq's economic and financial sovereignty is nothing less than national sovereignty; He said they want to end the problem of the Iraqi dollar being a mortgage in US banks' But all US statements, both in Washington and in Iraq, talk about banking reform, and none of them say that Iraq is ready for the United States to release its dollars completely.

The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi currency fell to 0,147 dinars per dollar in the Iraqi market, while a few months ago it was close to 0,160 dinars. Some see the decline as a sign of hope for the Sudanese visit, while others believe it is a black market game and a temporary decline; In particular, the White House statement on the visit to Sudan clearly states that Biden and Sudan in addition to ISIS They will discuss financial reforms and Iraqi energy independence. This means staying away from Iran, preventing the auditing of dollars and transparency of dollar movements, and there is no indication that Iraq will be open to dealing with the dollar reserves it has at the Federal Reserve.

Regional issues on the agenda of the visit.

According to former US Ambassador to Iraq, Robert Ford, the Kurdistan Regional Government's oil issue will be one of the topics of discussion between US institutions and the Iraqi delegation led by Sudani. In preparation for the visit, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with Iraqi Secretary of State Fuad Hussein to discuss the issues between Erbil and Baghdad and encouraged Baghdad to resolve the issues "because it will have economic benefits for all Iraqis. Meanwhile, more than two weeks before the visit, Republican Senator Tom Cotton and seven of his colleagues in Congress sent a special letter to Biden about Sudani, which is concerned about some issues in Kurdistan, telling Biden: "The Iraqi government is actively with "Tehran working against our Kurdish allies, including cutting off government financial assistance and closing the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline, on which much of Kurdistan's economy depends."

In the letter, the members of the US House of Representatives and Senate called for the immediate opening of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline so that the Kurdistan Region can resume oil exports. Another issue emphasized in the joint letter is the remittance of the KRG's financial entitlements by the Iraqi government: “You must ask the Iraqi government to resume sending the KRG's financial entitlements”. However, since the letter was written mainly by Republican senators Biden's rivals, It could be one of the biggest drivers of domestic political competition in the United States. According to previous experiences, there have been examples of such letters to US presidents, but they have not produced much results, especially since the number of congressmen is small. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also stressed that they "want to see Sudani and Biden meet" because in their view "Iraq is an important US partner in establishing regional security.

Because the Sudanese visit to the United States comes a few days after the visit of Kurdistan Regional Government Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, there is an opinion among some Iraqi political observers that the demands and insistences of the region will overshadow the meetings. Other foreign observers said that in addition to the oil issue, Biden will also discuss the federal court decisions with Sudan, especially as some leaks indicate that the US national security adviser previously told Sudani, "The visit should be in a good atmosphere. This US insistence stems from the fact that the US believes that improving relations between Baghdad and Erbil is in the interests of stability in Iraq and that tensions between the two are incompatible with its interests; The Iraqi Foreign Minister, on the eve of Sudan's visit to the United States, did not hide that the Kurds are in favor of the US military staying in Iraq, while the Sunnis and some Shiites agree with this.

According to some available information, before the previous visit of Sudani to New York last year, to facilitate the visit, he had decided to pay a three-month loan to the Kurdistan Region; Such facilitation could be repeated for this visit and Sudani and his team do not want to face criticism in Washington for the prolongation of the outstanding issues between Erbil and Baghdad.

Sudani's visit to Washington and meeting with Biden is an opportunity to demonstrate US support for Iraq under the Shiite framework government led by Mohammed Shia Sudani, but is not expected to cause major changes in relations between the two sides, the United States is subject to many other complex influences.

The visit is a good opportunity for the character of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani to demonstrate his ability and acceptance outside Iraq and could become a tool in the project of building his political leadership; But it is also open to dire consequences if Shiite armed groups are desperate to achieve their goals through Sudan, which is to restrict US hegemony in Iraq's security and military spheres.

The Sudanese visit will focus on issues related to the Kurdistan Region, especially the oil issue, and the Iraqi delegation may hear more encouragement to resolve outstanding issues, especially as the Sudanese visit follows the visit of the Kurdistan Regional Government prime minister to Washington. But the implementation of this US wish is subject to the complexities of the balance within the Shiite coordination framework, which is now in early preparations for the next elections and see the current cabinet as a bridge, not an umbrella for long-term solutions.

[hugetakeaway] 01/4/2024 16:46

50 quid plus very likely."Its possible to use a variety of methodologies to value GKP.Net entitlement reserves are huge and have an NPV justifying a sale price well in excess of $ 4bn - around £14 /share+Currently the company is debt free - by now pushing $ 85m at bank and generating annualised FCF/profits of approx $ 50m even on local sales pricing.When Baghdad capitulate as we are seeing is in progress exports resume , we are looking at$ 400-450 EBITDA for 2025On a multiple of 12 - looking at $5bn valuation - $ 17/share.Given the prospectivity remaining in Shaikan and the incredibly low lift costs plus existing infra-stucture , the competition amongst majors to buy this interest in such a prized asset will be extremely high.Hence IMO takeover will be minimum £ 25 /share."

[hugetakeaway] 01/4/2024 16:46

https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1774816576132305196?t=M9Za8VVbErT4_hLFWaGIUA&s=19

[hugetakeaway] 01/4/2024 16:04

HTTPS://x.com/ChicagoJack5/status/1774758577338556665?s=20