Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[confused _gerbill] 01/4/2024 19:50

Good find but after reading that article I ended up with splinters in my a$$ :)

[dudishes] 01/4/2024 19:35

Are you long Habs?

[habshan] 01/4/2024 19:06

"The Sudanese visit will focus on issues related to the Kurdistan Region, especially the oil issue."

A translation from Draw Media.

1st April - Sudanese visit to the White House: Signs and expected results.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani is scheduled to make his first visit to the White House on April 15, 2024, amid tensions in the Middle East and the smoke of the Gaza war. Visits to the United States have been a common political and diplomatic tradition for Iraqi prime ministers since 2003, but Sudani heads the "Shiite Coordination Framework" cabinet, which considers itself an opponent of the United States. This commentary takes a position on the signs, consequences and effects of the expected visit.

Composition of the delegation and the importance of the visit to Sudani.

Preparations for the visit are being made by an advisory team to the Iraqi prime minister and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein. The Sudanese accompanying delegation to the United States will include the Minister of Finance, the Governor of the Central Bank, the Minister of Commerce, the Minister of Oil, the Minister of Electricity and the Minister of Culture. Representatives from the Kurdistan Region are expected to accompany them. Although the visit is official and the main topic is relations between the two states of Iraq and the United States, but for Sudanese political figures, it is of special importance, because appearing in the White House officially, one of the ways to show as an acceptable political character to the countries involved in the Iraqi issue. According to some experts, an official appearance alongside the US president is a golden standard for gathering support inside and outside Iraq; For someone like Sudani, it could strengthen his chances in the 2025 elections. What supports this view is the weakness of the loyalties of most Shiite forces in the coordination framework in the West, especially since the current government is accused of Iranian alliance and backwardness and is often one of the targets of the Israeli lobby.

On a personal level, it is important for Sudani to appear as a statesman and compensate for some of the shortcomings of his political leadership in foreign relations, because he is a second generation of Shiite politicians who have been inside Iraq.

Along with the semi-consensus on the importance of the visit, there is a tendency on the part of Sudanese rivals among the Shiites to downplay the importance of the visit on the grounds that "all signs confirm that Biden is leaving and Trump is coming. "We saw how Trump ignored everything before him in the previous term," critics said. But others believe the Republicans also have interests in Iraq, such as Honywell, a pro-Republican energy company in the United States, Sudani has recently renewed its natural gas contracts. This could be in preparation for a possible Republican return to the White House. This company is one of the first US companies to have contracts in the field of natural gas in Iraq.
However, there is still an opinion that the whole visit is "protocol" and will not lead to major agreements other than the previous ones. There is so much that in the financial case, Sudan may make some demands for the sanctioned banks. The United States does not have to agree to everything Sudanese demands, especially in the fields of security and military; Especially as the United States is facing elections and the possibility of change in the US administration is open.

General topics of the visit.

According to official statements, the main topics of Sudan's visit to Washington include bilateral relations, the future of US forces in Iraq, electricity, natural gas and energy, encouraging US companies to invest, education and higher education assistance and support American in the fields of culture and museums; In addition, economic and trade issues will be strongly present, including banking facilities and more dollars Iraq, while trying to find a way for Iraq to transfer money for Iranian natural gas imports ($10 billion) through Canadian banks to avoid sanctions against its own banks. If these general titles are examined, each of them has different obstacles and incentives. Two of the most important are military and security issues, as well as finance and dollars:

Security and army issues:

Under pressure from Shiite armed groups and the consequences of the Gaza war, the Iraqi government announced in early 2024 that it had begun talks with the United States on three topics: the threat of ISIS, strengthening Iraqi security forces; Security relations between the two sides should be promoted to a bilateral level in accordance with the signed Iraq-US Strategic Agreement.

Since this development, all Iraqi official statements have emphasized the importance of reaching the end of the mission of the international coalition against ISIS to convince the Shiite groups that are currently in a state of ceasefire. Shiite groups, meanwhile, continue to pressure the United States to "end Washington's interference in the withdrawal of military bases and lift its dominance over Iraq's arms contracts America in Iraq, Elena Romanowski. The visit warned that ISIS was still a threat, and that there was no talk of ending the ISIS coalition! Meanwhile, Ian McCarthy, the US envoy to the international coalition against ISIS, has made it clear that "there are currently no plans to withdraw its forces from Iraq. This means that the Sudanese visit is unlikely to change anything in the security and military balance, then the situation is open to the resumption of activities of armed groups and their insistence on US withdrawal after 2020 and the killing of Suleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

In practice, the withdrawal of US troops is beyond the capacity of the Sudanese and Iraqi governments for several reasons:
- The Biden administration will not take such a risk in an election year, especially since the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan has not yet been resolved.
- The Gaza war, Israel's security and the security of other US allies in the region (Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and other countries prevent the sudden withdrawal of US troops from Iraq and leave it to the Iranian factions.

- Most of the Iraqi military systems and equipment are American and without US advisors and without US updates will face many problems and crises, and Iraq can not insist much.
- With the US withdrawal as the Shiite groups want, Iraq will be in trouble with European countries and NATO members, because none of them are ready to cooperate and stay in the war against ISIS without the US.

- The Iraqi army and the country's security system are not able to fight external threats without US support; Especially since ISIS and the possibility of a repeat of the 2014 scenario is always a threat.
- Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein openly stated in Washington that Kurds, Sunnis and some Shiites are not in favor of the withdrawal of US troops at present and have reasons for this, but the Shiites have not said this openly. This fact, which was revealed in a recent parliamentary session, in itself further complicates the issue of withdrawal and increases the justification for the Americans to stay, contrary to the wishes of the groups and playing with words in official Iraqi government statements.

- Outside the Iraqi equation, if the international coalition against ISIS disappears, the Americans can no longer legally make Iraq a base to support their small military force in Syria; The Eastern Euphrates force, although small in number (900 troops), but against the position of Russia and Iran, will ensure a position for the United States in Syria. The US withdrawal there will also provide an opportunity for ISIS to return to some troubled areas; This will undermine the gains of the US-led coalition war against ISIS. It is clear that any gap in the country, if not filled by ISIS, will be the position of Iran and Russia. This is an undesirable scenario for the United States and the current administration.

According to the available signs, the United States may change some of the size and number of its forces in Iraq, but in any case, what the Shiite groups expect and try to end US military hegemony and withdrawal of troops after the Sudanese visit The 2008 Strategic Framework Agreement has made bilateral relations long-term.

Dossier and Economy:

In the Shiite political center, Sudan's visit, in addition to "reaching an agreement to withdraw the US military and end the mission of the international coalition," another main goal is to lift sanctions on the dollar and trust the United States to ease sanctions. US responsibility for this 20-year-old issue is linked to Washington's legal hegemony over Iraqi oil revenues in dollars under Iraq's agreement with Paul Bremer (2004) is one of the concerns of Shiite forces, especially after the recent US sanctions against Shiite financial institutions on charges of aiding sanctioned Iranian financial institutions. There are constant concerns that the United States is using its legal power over Iraqi oil revenues to exert political pressure.

Hadi Amiri, one of the leaders of the Shiite framework, insists that Iraq's economic and financial sovereignty is nothing less than national sovereignty; He said they want to end the problem of the Iraqi dollar being a mortgage in US banks' But all US statements, both in Washington and in Iraq, talk about banking reform, and none of them say that Iraq is ready for the United States to release its dollars completely.

The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi currency fell to 0,147 dinars per dollar in the Iraqi market, while a few months ago it was close to 0,160 dinars. Some see the decline as a sign of hope for the Sudanese visit, while others believe it is a black market game and a temporary decline; In particular, the White House statement on the visit to Sudan clearly states that Biden and Sudan in addition to ISIS They will discuss financial reforms and Iraqi energy independence. This means staying away from Iran, preventing the auditing of dollars and transparency of dollar movements, and there is no indication that Iraq will be open to dealing with the dollar reserves it has at the Federal Reserve.

Regional issues on the agenda of the visit.

According to former US Ambassador to Iraq, Robert Ford, the Kurdistan Regional Government's oil issue will be one of the topics of discussion between US institutions and the Iraqi delegation led by Sudani. In preparation for the visit, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with Iraqi Secretary of State Fuad Hussein to discuss the issues between Erbil and Baghdad and encouraged Baghdad to resolve the issues "because it will have economic benefits for all Iraqis. Meanwhile, more than two weeks before the visit, Republican Senator Tom Cotton and seven of his colleagues in Congress sent a special letter to Biden about Sudani, which is concerned about some issues in Kurdistan, telling Biden: "The Iraqi government is actively with "Tehran working against our Kurdish allies, including cutting off government financial assistance and closing the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline, on which much of Kurdistan's economy depends."

In the letter, the members of the US House of Representatives and Senate called for the immediate opening of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline so that the Kurdistan Region can resume oil exports. Another issue emphasized in the joint letter is the remittance of the KRG's financial entitlements by the Iraqi government: “You must ask the Iraqi government to resume sending the KRG's financial entitlements”. However, since the letter was written mainly by Republican senators Biden's rivals, It could be one of the biggest drivers of domestic political competition in the United States. According to previous experiences, there have been examples of such letters to US presidents, but they have not produced much results, especially since the number of congressmen is small. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also stressed that they "want to see Sudani and Biden meet" because in their view "Iraq is an important US partner in establishing regional security.

Because the Sudanese visit to the United States comes a few days after the visit of Kurdistan Regional Government Prime Minister Masrour Barzani, there is an opinion among some Iraqi political observers that the demands and insistences of the region will overshadow the meetings. Other foreign observers said that in addition to the oil issue, Biden will also discuss the federal court decisions with Sudan, especially as some leaks indicate that the US national security adviser previously told Sudani, "The visit should be in a good atmosphere. This US insistence stems from the fact that the US believes that improving relations between Baghdad and Erbil is in the interests of stability in Iraq and that tensions between the two are incompatible with its interests; The Iraqi Foreign Minister, on the eve of Sudan's visit to the United States, did not hide that the Kurds are in favor of the US military staying in Iraq, while the Sunnis and some Shiites agree with this.

According to some available information, before the previous visit of Sudani to New York last year, to facilitate the visit, he had decided to pay a three-month loan to the Kurdistan Region; Such facilitation could be repeated for this visit and Sudani and his team do not want to face criticism in Washington for the prolongation of the outstanding issues between Erbil and Baghdad.

Sudani's visit to Washington and meeting with Biden is an opportunity to demonstrate US support for Iraq under the Shiite framework government led by Mohammed Shia Sudani, but is not expected to cause major changes in relations between the two sides, the United States is subject to many other complex influences.

The visit is a good opportunity for the character of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani to demonstrate his ability and acceptance outside Iraq and could become a tool in the project of building his political leadership; But it is also open to dire consequences if Shiite armed groups are desperate to achieve their goals through Sudan, which is to restrict US hegemony in Iraq's security and military spheres.

The Sudanese visit will focus on issues related to the Kurdistan Region, especially the oil issue, and the Iraqi delegation may hear more encouragement to resolve outstanding issues, especially as the Sudanese visit follows the visit of the Kurdistan Regional Government prime minister to Washington. But the implementation of this US wish is subject to the complexities of the balance within the Shiite coordination framework, which is now in early preparations for the next elections and see the current cabinet as a bridge, not an umbrella for long-term solutions.

[hugetakeaway] 01/4/2024 16:46

50 quid plus very likely."Its possible to use a variety of methodologies to value GKP.Net entitlement reserves are huge and have an NPV justifying a sale price well in excess of $ 4bn - around £14 /share+Currently the company is debt free - by now pushing $ 85m at bank and generating annualised FCF/profits of approx $ 50m even on local sales pricing.When Baghdad capitulate as we are seeing is in progress exports resume , we are looking at$ 400-450 EBITDA for 2025On a multiple of 12 - looking at $5bn valuation - $ 17/share.Given the prospectivity remaining in Shaikan and the incredibly low lift costs plus existing infra-stucture , the competition amongst majors to buy this interest in such a prized asset will be extremely high.Hence IMO takeover will be minimum £ 25 /share."

[hugetakeaway] 01/4/2024 16:46

https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1774816576132305196?t=M9Za8VVbErT4_hLFWaGIUA&s=19

[hugetakeaway] 01/4/2024 16:04

HTTPS://x.com/ChicagoJack5/status/1774758577338556665?s=20

[hugetakeaway] 01/4/2024 16:04

50 quid plus very likely."Its possible to use a variety of methodologies to value GKP.Net entitlement reserves are huge and have an NPV justifying a sale price well in excess of $ 4bn - around £14 /share+Currently the company is debt free - by now pushing $ 85m at bank and generating annualised FCF/profits of approx $ 50m even on local sales pricing.When Baghdad capitulate as we are seeing is in progress exports resume , we are looking at$ 400-450 EBITDA for 2025On a multiple of 12 - looking at $5bn valuation - $ 17/share.Given the prospectivity remaining in Shaikan and the incredibly low lift costs plus existing infra-stucture , the competition amongst majors to buy this interest in such a prized asset will be extremely high.Hence IMO takeover will be minimum £ 25 /share."

[bigdog5] 01/4/2024 15:14

£100, why not?

Obviously the poster has ingested far too much amber nectar and iffy baccy.

Companies only buy what's proved up and not what may be, might be, could be but there's no proof. Also, no one buys a company or its assets for the ludicrous multiples being posted up by you desperate morons. Especially when the asset was desperately put up for sale prior to the 2016 wipeout and that a figure of £1ps was rumoured would have sealed the deal. But no one was interested. Then came DNO's two offers, one of cash and paper and then finally one of around 70p cash. Then they walked away.

Has any extra Reserves been discovered since that time, no. Are they being depleted, looks that way. Are the company now having to put a great deal more emphasis on the "Resources" and the use of the word "potential" yes.

I do find it extraordinary that there are still morons amongst you desperate fantasists that believe the company are lying about what they publish in all their CPR's!!! Were they do do that they would likely suffer the same outcome as TK. So look at the Nett 1P number and then compare their sludge to the top quality high API oil as sold by Total awhile back and understand Total only received around $1.70pb!! So sludge will be valued at far less.

Always happy to assist you gullible fantasists and ridicule your expectations:-)

[furenstaurus] 01/4/2024 14:51

HTTPS://x.com/ChicagoJack5/status/1774758577338556665?s=20

[furenstaurus] 01/4/2024 14:51

50 quid plus very likely."Its possible to use a variety of methodologies to value GKP.Net entitlement reserves are huge and have an NPV justifying a sale price well in excess of $ 4bn - around £14 /share+Currently the company is debt free - by now pushing $ 85m at bank and generating annualised FCF/profits of approx $ 50m even on local sales pricing.When Baghdad capitulate as we are seeing is in progress exports resume , we are looking at$ 400-450 EBITDA for 2025On a multiple of 12 - looking at $5bn valuation - $ 17/share.Given the prospectivity remaining in Shaikan and the incredibly low lift costs plus existing infra-stucture , the competition amongst majors to buy this interest in such a prized asset will be extremely high.Hence IMO takeover will be minimum £ 25 /share."

[dudishes] 01/4/2024 13:28

WD johnbuys, gushes to flushes, I reckon £4 for starters, maybe 5.

£100, why not?

The gates await you.

What's the street on the word? Hanami, hot cross, bacon for those that cheat?

I hear that fashion not so good in Chelsea these days?

Enjoy your power lunch.

[highlander7] 01/4/2024 10:58

Which means Erdogan needs USA aid more than ever to get Turkeys 68% inflation down.

[r9505571] 01/4/2024 10:48

President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an's ruling party has suffered a resounding defeat in Turkey's local polls, leaving the strongman facing his most severe electoral setback since his rise to power two decades ago.The opposition scored decisive mayoral victories against Erdo?an's Justice and Development party (AKP) in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa and Antalya - Turkey's five biggest cities - according to initial results from Sunday's vote published by the Anadolu state news agency.Ekrem ?mamo?lu's strong performance for the opposition Republican People's party (CHP) in Istanbul marked a particularly painful blow to Erdo?an, who had campaigned vigorously for the AKP's mayoral candidate in the hopes of vanquishing his most credible rival.

[hugetakeaway] 01/4/2024 09:46

https://twitter.com/GoodnightCharl1/status/1772928419178635344?t=czevL2l1b8as56m7oojUOQ&s=19

[bri15] 01/4/2024 09:26

Tomorrow do yourselves a favour,get out of oil,get into Pharma,Geni going to be massive, guarantee you that.

[fairenough11] 01/4/2024 09:14

Can you imagine what the booked reserves would be if they used a normal/average/correct FP figure and then proved up the other oil bearing zones.
Off the scale.
THE PRIZE!

[beernut1] 01/4/2024 08:53

Oil rises as investors bet on tighter supply, China's economy
Economy
Oil
China
Oil rises as investors bet on tighter supply, China's economy
2024-04-01 07:36


Font
Shafaq News / Oil prices rose on Monday, adding to recent gains amid expectations of tighter supply from OPEC+ cuts, attacks on Russian refineries and as upbeat Chinese manufacturing data supported outlooks for improving demand.
Brent crude rose 29 cents, or 0.3%, to $87.29 a barrel by 0331 GMT after rising 2.4% last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $83.48 a barrel, up 31 cents, or 0.4%, following a 3.2% gain last week.
Trade volumes are expected to be thin on Monday as several countries are closed for Easter holidays.
Both benchmarks finished higher for a third consecutive month in March, with Brent holding above $85 a barrel since the middle of last month, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, pledged to extend production cuts to the end of June which could tighten crude supply during summer in the Northern Hemisphere.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that its oil companies will focus on reducing output rather than exports in the second quarter in order to evenly spread production cuts with other OPEC+ member countries.
Drone attacks from Ukraine have knocked out several Russian refineries, which is expected to reduce Russia's fuel exports.
"Geopolitical risks to crude and heavy feedstock supplies add to strong Q2 24 demand fundamentals," Energy Aspects analysts said in a note.
Almost 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude processing capacity is offline from the attacks, impacting its high-sulphur fuel oil exports which are processed at Chinese and Indian refineries, the consultancy added.
In Europe, oil demand was firmer than expected, rising 100,000 bpd on year in February, Goldman Sachs analysts said, versus its forecast of a 200,000 bpd contraction in 2024.
Europe's firm demand, softness in U.S. supply growth coupled with a possible extension of OPEC+ cuts through 2024 outweigh downside risk from persistent softness in China's demand, they said in a note.
Crude oil production by the United States, the world's largest producer, dropped 6% in January from December's record high, following freezing weather, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Friday.
"We see the risks to our forecast that Brent will average $83/bbl in 2024Q4 as skewed moderately to the upside," the analysts said.
Also supportive for prices, China's manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in six months in March, an official factory survey showed on Sunday, supporting oil demand at the world's largest crude importer, even as a crisis in the property sector remains a drag on the economy.
Investors are also scouring U.S. economic data for signs of when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year which will support the global economy and oil demand.

[highlander7] 01/4/2024 05:21

Unfortunately common sense has never been a prerequisite state for politicians of any category.

GLA we are all due a break.

[0ili0] 31/3/2024 21:52

... refillable from the Permian 🤔

£110/share. 🛢️
29312;💭

[nestoframpers] 31/3/2024 21:40

And that's just the tested zones .

[nestoframpers] 31/3/2024 21:27

JG 'There's 13 Bn blls of moveable oil in Shaikan'

[luckyclicker] 31/3/2024 21:27

https://www.kurdistan24.net/ar/story/47806-%D9%86%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%88-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%B2%D9%8A:-%D9%88%D9%81%D8%AF-%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%A5%D9%82%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%85-%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86