Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[robertspc1] 19/12/2024 20:00

GRID is cheap ... but so is everything else. Management have been really smug and failed big time. But hopefully Octopus running the numbers to take it out

[cruelladeville] 19/12/2024 14:11

Really? That's public knowledge. Or guessing?

[george stobart] 19/12/2024 14:03

EDF, Centrica, SSE all got to the final round so it's likely one of them

[craigso] 19/12/2024 13:40

Once we have a price for HEIT, then GRID and to a lesser extent GSF should re-rate. Once we know the identity of the winning bidder, we can start to speculate about whether any losing bidders will take a look at buying GRID.

However, it will still take a brave investor to recycle most of their HEIT proceeds into GRID, since management is clearly worse here.

[george stobart] 19/12/2024 12:08

no it's just because investors in GRID are sissies and gays whilst investing in HEIT involves having a pair

[erstwhile2] 19/12/2024 11:43

At today's 66p, the market cap of HEIT is £150m, and they have £130m debt or thereabouts. So that values the 394MW of 2h duration batteries at £710k/MW

GRIDs portfolio (when built in a couple of months) will be 1076MW at 1.6h duration and they have said they will have less than £160m debt. So the 47p GRID share price values their batteries at around £400k/MW.

That is a striking discount even given the duration differential. Is it because no one trusts the management team, the strategic plan, the Octopus hedge, and the fee structure, and just everyone hates the stock right now?

Or is HEIT just fully valued because it it conducting a sensible sale process? If they get it done GRID shareholders ought to press for same. Mind the gap.

[robertspc1] 19/12/2024 08:49

A HEIT sale close to NAV would be a real world validation of sector valuation methodology. Let's hope that happens otherwise it will just confirm values are somewhat pie in the sky

[cruelladeville] 19/12/2024 08:41

Given the fairly positive noises from Harmony Energy this morning regarding a portfolio sale, the pressure is going to be on GRID if a good sale price is agreed?

[cruelladeville] 16/12/2024 20:40

Exactly. There's been a major policy disconnect between the the build out of renewable generation without corresponding build out of transmission networks and storage facilities. Doing the former is far easier for the politicians who know nothing about the engineering to do. Here today gone tomorrow energy secretaries.

[nickrl] 16/12/2024 18:13

@CDV we didn't have excess wind last week we have a transmission system thats not kept up with the buildout of renewables especially windfarms in N.Scotland

[cruelladeville] 12/12/2024 14:10

I agree about the storage, but that's no use without massive investment in national transmission infrastructure.

[96jde] 12/12/2024 12:38

It is the Telegraph, though, so part of their daily Net Zero poison drip. Wind-solar-battery-hydro. We just need a ton more storage, it's part of the transition.

[cruelladeville] 12/12/2024 09:45

And there's a fair bit of what's called "other" generation which I presume is powered by peak lopping dirty diesel generator parks. Funny old way to net zero. Pay record amount to wind turbine generators to shutdown due to excess wind and a few days later finding we have no wind generation to speak of. And the current government targets 3x current off shore and 4x on shore wind generation by 2030? Nutty.

[sleveen] 12/12/2024 09:27

71% gas as I type.

[cruelladeville] 12/12/2024 09:22

A statistic this morning in the media demonstrating how UK's build out of renewable energy and not investing in grid infrastructure and energy storage is a disaster for the country. From The Telegraph - "Britain is more reliant on gas power than ever before today in a blow to Ed Miliband's drive for a net zero economy. Power from Britain's gas-fired plants surged to a record-high after a slump in wind speeds hit generation from renewables. Gas-fired generation covered 70pc of Britain's power demand, according to data from the National Energy System Operator (Neso)." Short term opportunities for BESS operators?

[sleveen] 12/12/2024 08:07

GSF have an uninspiring interim report today,

BESS trading is poor, might be some read across with GRID

[cellular3] 11/12/2024 13:37

So windfarm turbines are turned off at wind speeds of 90mph and if not, they can break or fall over. Wow what a great way to energy independence.

[llef] 11/12/2024 11:01

Nickrl, yes, there is a lot of BESS under construction, (and a lot of it is in very large sites, many hundreds of MWHs).
I guess that means that a lot of investors still think there is good money to be made from BESS.
I suppose the question for GRID investors, is how much of the pie is being swallowed by Gresham management.

Tomorrow's peak to trough is £90 to £496!

[nickrl] 10/12/2024 20:21

Remember though for days like tomorrow with good peak to trough delta there are many more where things are more marginal. However, it certainly seems more opportunity days like tomorrow will appear as wind penetration increases and dispatchable generation reduces. Mind you there is also plenty of BESS under construction and that has the potential to erode that peak to trough delta. Gresham know all this and I guess they weren't totally convinced of the arguments they've pedalled for years hence agreeing to place some assets into the tolling agreement.

[llef] 10/12/2024 13:00

yep CC2014, would not be surprised to see the "demand reduction" offers to be triggered this week.
There is a big flabby high pressure over north western europe for the rest of this week.
In fact looking at the pressure map, THursday and Friday look ever worse for Wind generation for UK, DK, NL, DK etc etc.

I'd imagine that National grid wont be "skipping" any offers of generation from BESS this week..the reverse in fact! Happy days for Grid et al...

[cc2014] 10/12/2024 12:35

I checked out your post llef as I was a little shocked by the numbers. There's very little wind in the UK tomorrow and I assume it must be the same for Europe coupled with low temperatures.

GRID will of course benefit considerably as only part of the fleet has been handed over to Octopus so it will be interesting to see what they make from it.

Looking at the figures I'm surprised Octopus haven't offered me as a consumer some money to turn my heat pump off for a couple of hours...

[llef] 10/12/2024 11:56

(assuming GRID can benefit from this), UK electricity prices tomorrow dip to under £100 overnight, and peak at £350 between 4 and 6pm...

hxxps://data.nordpoolgroup.com/auction/n2ex/prices?deliveryDate=2024-12-11&currency=GBP&aggregation=DeliveryPeriod&deliveryAreas=UK

[cc2014] 10/12/2024 08:45

Reason for the fall

My guess is that someone bought a large quantity in the run up to the capital markets day event. The volume was significant. Another institution pulled in by some bullish remarks by Ben Guest before the event. Possibly bought on T20's or whatever.

Now selling out their position and finding there isn't a market to sell into because the market is not convinced by the expansion strategy.

[cellular3] 10/12/2024 08:14

Was it link fund management that wound up Woodford’s funds-can’t remember

[george stobbart] 09/12/2024 19:41

Nothing obvious. Business as usual until it falls non stop straight line to 20p where it belongs