Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 09/12/2024 19:27

Any obvious particular reason for the drop today Not holding but have some GSF - alas

[nickrl] 09/12/2024 18:02

This fund is run for the benefit of Gresham House not the shareholders. The expensive BoDs clearly aren't independent as they should have never have sanctioned the 3 yr expansion strategy unless they wanted the gravy train to roll on.

[stargazerspark] 09/12/2024 14:00

At least the falling knife hurts less on the 10th 5% drop.

Time for the board to take action. Find some replacement shareholders or a new investor to buy the book.

[george stobart] 09/12/2024 13:39

What's the most you've ever lost in a coin toss?

[cc2014] 09/12/2024 13:24

I really do not know what to make of this share if I'm honest.

The market is saying they don't believe the long term revenue stream, don't believe the NAV and they don't like the 3 year business plan.

I agree but I am wondering if there is a price I'm happy to buy at. Somewhat lower but that's mostly based on the price action not the fundamentals. The fundamentals tell me to keep out too but I do kind of have that feeling that the downward pressure cannot exert itself forever.

I shall leave this be for the moment for no other reason that at the moment Gresham House have lost all credibility.

[cruelladeville] 09/12/2024 11:26

Quite, but Octopus being a private company with big backing are probably better placed than most. Probably one of the UK's best run companies.

[craigso] 09/12/2024 10:43

Capital isn't infinite for Octopus or anybody else. Entering into a tolling agreement gives Octopus all of the advantages of having BESS in its portfolio, without having to find the money to build or buy it themselves. It also pushes any operational risk onto a third party.

Given the distressed situation GRID found themselves in, Octopus probably got a pretty good deal. And Octopus may indeed have kept their powder dry for a go at HEIT.

[cruelladeville] 09/12/2024 10:10

I agree with you. I'm not sure why Octopus would want to have a third party operating BESS for them when I'm sure they are perfectly capable of doing so themselves. Octopus might even be a bidder for HEIT assets.

[cc2014] 09/12/2024 09:34

I am doubtful it will get this massive expansion away. It's reliant on asset level finance and this won't happen unless there's a long term reasonably guaranteed revenue stream.

It's implied from the most recent presentation Octopus are ready to sign up for this but I'm sceptical. Why would they? Especially when they are getting their own built

[cruelladeville] 09/12/2024 09:32

I imagine to some degree, it's going to depend on how the sale of HEIT goes? If they sell for near to NAV, there'll be significant pressure on other deeply discounted businesses to do the same.

[cellular3] 09/12/2024 09:09

Don’t know if many of these renewable trusts and funds will survive much longer

[nickrl] 08/12/2024 18:28

Should it reinstate divis even at the lower end of the forecast would be a 9% yield but would that be sustainable?

[george stobart] 06/12/2024 16:29

Welcome to the valley of death

[pj84] 04/12/2024 18:44

Summary from the above note

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund — Improving prospects suggest discount is overdone
At the recent capital markets day, Gresham House Energy Storage Fund (GRID) detailed positive developments in H224, including growing capacity and rising revenues. It also revealed a three-year plan to achieve further growth and triple earnings, from an estimated £45–55m in 2025, to £150m in 2027. Funding is expected to come from a new project finance style arrangement based on contracted revenues. Subject to the successful conclusion of related refinancing, expected in Q125, the company plans to reinstate fully covered dividend payments from Q325. GRID is also negotiating an equity investment in one of its sites. This deal would potentially serve to confirm GRID’s valuation methodology, giving investors confidence that the current NAV is a realistic estimate of its true worth. GRID’s share price is currently at a significant, historically wide discount to NAV, but this deal, combined with other positive recent developments and GRID’s plans for further improvements in capacity and revenues, suggests the discount is excessive and likely to narrow significantly as the company’s plans are rolled out.

[2wild] 03/12/2024 11:00

Guess the market likes it with shares up over 4% in 1 month and 37% above 1Y low. Most Renewables investment trusts are down a fair bit during the last month.

[craigso] 03/12/2024 09:35

@erstwhile

No connection to ENCC or anything BESS-related. Simply I used to work for a major power company in the UK, so I'm reasonably aware of the issues and still have friends / former colleagues scattered around the industry.

[cruelladeville] 02/12/2024 15:38

Yes, understood. Which really just amplifies the policy failure. Install huge capacity of intermittent generation with - Neither the means to transmit the power to where the demand is nor build enough short and longer term energy storage to flatten the variations of supply and demand. However you look at it you just come back to total lack of planning of how to decarbonise the energy supply of the country. Building wind turbines and solar arrays is the easy bit. Total failure on everything else.

[craigso] 02/12/2024 15:02

CdV,

Building BESS near the demand centres (i.e. the South) doesn't actually solve the problem of wind curtailment. Either you can get the electrons to the south through the existing cables or you're constrained off. It doesn't really matter if the demand is recharging a battery or running a factory.

So you'd have to build the BESS closer to the wind farms. But that doesn't really solve the problem either because you can't dispatch BESS (to cover southern demand) when it's windy either. (perhaps when a nuclear plant and an interconnector go offline at the same time)

The UK does definitively need much more power transmission capacity and there's only so much that can be done to work around insufficent grid capacity.

[cruelladeville] 02/12/2024 13:09

From the Telegraph today - "British bill payers have spent an "absurd" £1bn to temporarily switch off wind turbines so far this year as the grid struggles to cope with their power. The amount of wind power "curtailed" in the first 11 months of 2024 stood at about 6.6 gigawatt hours (GWh), according to official figures, up from 3.8 GWh in the whole of last year." Absolutely pathetic situation. Urgently need massive investment in long term energy storage.

[nickrl] 02/12/2024 10:16

They'd be better getting everything to a 2hr duration first as they can exploit this twice a day during the peaks and generally there is enough of a price delta to cover the round trip losses. There will be days when mega bucks can be made and days when it can't. Need to get an answer out of them why they are keeping units out of the BM although the figures they quote are above what MODO quote as the average so things have certainly improved.

I was beginning to see this as a possibility until they launched into a 3yr expansion plan again so the inv mgr can continue to milk it.

[cellular3] 29/11/2024 18:25

Think these guys are looking to turn £1 into 1p at this rate

[cruelladeville] 29/11/2024 14:42

If HEIT get anything near NAV for their portfolio that is up for sale, there's going to be pressure in GRID to do the same?

[marktime1231] 29/11/2024 12:23

Interesting to see how close debt is to the gearing mandate of 50%, if you look at it that way. Even before expanding debt GRID would hit the limit if NAV drops to 88p.

As you say no-one believes NAV is 110p.