Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[george stobart] 10/9/2024 16:30

Sir Kier Starmer will bring massive green investments to the UK BESS.

Rumour says Sir Kier is scooping up GRID cheap shares as we speak through his offshore Isle of Man account.

Gains in this stock are not promised; they are guaranteed

[topvest] 10/9/2024 16:00

What a dog this has been. The fact that they were using highly optimistic forward curves about sums this up. Ben Guest should be fired in my view. I'm not sure you can believe anything he says.

[cc2014] 10/9/2024 13:14

I've with you on that. I'm thinking the price will be very keen too, lower than this years.

[nickrl] 10/9/2024 12:43

@CC2014 only assets without an existing CM contract can prequalify though although im not sure many BESS if any got a T-4 for delivery year 25/6 so could be a lot of batts in play. Also they eased back on derating factors so won't need as many. My guess is pricing will be keen.

[cc2014] 10/9/2024 11:14

The ESO has set capacity for next year’s T-1 auction at 6.5 GW, 1.2 GW below the previous auction. The target capacity for the T-4 auction is 44 GW, the same as the final target capacity for the previous auction

[cc2014] 10/9/2024 09:21

I am finding it very hard to read anything any longer. GRID has lost around 30% of it's share value in just less than 2 months and from what I can see over the trade flow it's still under considerable pressure.

I really didn't think I would get the chance to buy this back in the low 40s but now I'm beginning to wonder.

It's plainly obvious the market thinks the NAV is a complete piece of fiction, which I agree with.


However, I've begun to realise that whilst I do not approve of the crazy way the NAV is being put together it's enabling me to make decent money on this and other stocks. What a bizarre world we live in.

[nickrl] 09/9/2024 16:06

@SteMis totally agree GRID is a labyrinth of companies and by the time they subsidiaries post their a/c's there at least 12mths out of date. How can they be allowed to come up with hard financial data for the trust without having the subsidiary a/c's validated and thus why don't they post them on companies house earlier.

[stemis] 09/9/2024 15:23

The more I look at these small 'environmental' plays (GRID, GSF, SEIT, etc), the more convinced I am that their only purpose is to enrich the pockets of their 'asset managers' by (albeit, perfectly legally) clouding their real performance.

What GRID fail to point out is that their business is loss making and probably heavily so. 'Operational ebitda for H1 may well be £10.4m but that's before holding company costs of ~£5m (of which the 'asset manager' receives ~£4m) and depreciation on the assets. I don't know what that later number is but on >£800m of investment in subsidaries, I'm pretty sure it's a lot more than £5.4m a half year.

At least they are further down the line than some of the others and are no longer pretending there is any basis for paying a dividend because they've managed to strip some capital from loss making subsidiaries, claiming its covered 'on a holding company basis'.

How these businesses are allowed not to produce consolidated accounts (which would reveal the true position) and instead produce a highly judgemental NAV/share (which in GRIDs case has basically fallen apart - down from 155.5p to 109.2p in just 18 months) is a scandal.

[marktime1231] 09/9/2024 13:30

Another 20p lopped off NAV as lower income prospect sinks in, or indeed as the team face up to the new reality with a bit more honesty dripping through. As I recall we were all expecting a much deeper NAV reset than was declared before, no surprise if another 20p gets lopped off in due course.

Quoting NAV with spurious precision to two decimal places, and bluffing a modest unaudited untested improvement in between times, is trying to snow us.

Reported revenues and ebitda are utterly dreadful, no comfort even if they have recently recovered by 25%. A valuation on income means NAV of 109p is ridiculous, overstated based on rosy assumptions that things simply have to get better.

My instinct is unmoved that even with best endeavours to recover the situation real NAV at best is only around 55-60p. And why should we trust management to achieve that recovery? The risk-reward adjusted share price we sank to of about 40p was probably right, and until we return there I will be firmly stood outside the tent.

[nickrl] 09/9/2024 13:28

I'd say there being rather bold on what the EBITDA might look like next year to curry favour that divis will be reinstated. Yes Q2 income/MW was improved but as we progress back into the colder darker days the opportunities fall away so i suspect revenue will drop back.
When i hear that Guest and Leggette are taking some pain on fees I might feel I can believe them.

[newbold120] 09/9/2024 11:23

And the spread of their valuations. So basically the NAV (and management fee) is based off an average of assumptions made by two consultants, one of the previous consultants being too optimistic?

[adamb1978] 09/9/2024 08:12

A c.3p drop in the share price suggests to me that this is around a floor. Braver ivnestor that me though who picks up something which has been plummeting!

[cc2014] 09/9/2024 08:03

NAV down 15.4% to 109.16p and the share price reacting unsurprisingly to the downside.

"At its upcoming Capital Markets Day (details to follow), the Company intends to announce a three-year plan seeking to maximise portfolio capacity, revenues and cashflow from 2025 to 2027 whilst reducing the volatility of earnings. The Manager believes that GRID, in achieving scale over the last 5 years, has a significant opportunity to maximise value for shareholders as the industry moves past the recent low point in revenues. The key areas of focus include further augmentations, new pipeline opportunities, efficient capital management, and alternative revenue sources."

Sorry, where is GRID getting the cash from to do new buildout and new augmentation unless the dividend is to remain at a very low level? I suspect it's just words.

It would be helpful if GRID had told us what the new forecasts from Aurora and Modo are

[george stobart] 05/9/2024 14:37

Massive jump in Battery energy storage revenues in Great Britain according to Modo data

Battery energy storage revenues in Great Britain jumped 42% in August - with batteries earning the second-highest revenue so far this year.

Revenues averaged £56k/MW/year in August, almost equalling the yearly high set in April, as revenues continued to closely follow wind generation.

Wholesale trading and Balancing Mechanism revenues were particularly high, reaching £33k/MW/year, the highest level since December 2022.

Wholesale price spreads averaged £73/MWh, their highest level in 2024. This was due to a 13% increase in gas prices and a 45% increase in wind generation.

The consistent high wind generation led to power prices falling negative for 49 hours across the month, bringing the total for 2024 up to 148 hours.

In the Balancing Mechanism batteries were dispatched for a record 1.4 GWh of Offers each day. This helped batteries earn their highest-ever Balancing Mechanism revenue, beating the previous record set in April 2024 by 22%.

Despite the high Balancing Mechanism and wholesale revenues, total revenues were fractionally lower than in April, due to lower Capacity Market payments and frequency response prices.

[cc2014] 22/8/2024 14:33

From my friends at Octopus

Thanks for switching on for our first Free Electricity session on Thursday 15th August. Together, you stopped 180 wind turbine's worth of clean, green power from going to waste. Pretty cool ey? And here's how you did:

You used 1310% more than usual: 29p worth of Free Electricity ⚡️



or together you stopped 180 wind turbine's worth of power being sucked up by batteries at the cheapest possible time of day.

[cc2014] 19/8/2024 09:50

Octopus have now done their second free electricity hour in the last 10 days.

Well not quite free. The first one was free, but the second one was only for free for extra electricity used.

Which is another reason why I've gone off this sector as it's much easier to shift consumer behaviour by price incentives than it is to build a whole bunch of batteries

[cc2014] 16/8/2024 14:59

When FTSE rises 400pts and GRID's share price struggles to go up by more than a couple of pence it's telling me the market is not impressed with GRID.

I think I'll wait for something beginning with a 4

[george stobart] 07/8/2024 07:42

RBC Capital Markets - GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC (GRID)
7 August 2024

7-year GB BESS tolling agreement signed by Penso Power

BW ESS and Penso Power have signed a 7-year fixed price tolling agreement with Shell Energy for its Bramley Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) currently under construction in Hampshire, UK. The 100MW/313MWh asset is due to become operational in Q4 24. (Company Announcement)

So what? This is the 2nd major tolling agreement announced in the UK following GRID’s similar landmark agreement announced earlier this year. The revenue volatility of battery storage assets remains the key differentiating factor to core renewables and we expect the use of fixed-price tolling agreements to increase significantly as the sector matures, in turn improving stability of cash flows and hence access to project financing. Bramley will also be the longest duration battery asset in the GB market once operational (3.3 hours), further highlighting a separate market trend towards longer duration assets which are better placed for wholesale trading as opposed to ancillary service revenue.

[nickrl] 06/8/2024 20:29

@CC2014 surprised revenue dropping back that much as wind cycles between low and high days pretty repetitively and still get a few half hours of very low pricing when the sun is out. They may be doing better with the non BM assets if they are majoring on wholesale trading.

[cc2014] 06/8/2024 05:40

The revenues look dire to me.

On 6th August last year the 2 hour index suggested £70.6k annualised per Mw.
August 4th this year is £46.5k

Those are rolling 30 day figures so average for a month if you like and include the capacity market.

The drop in one hour batteries is even more severe.

[nickrl] 05/8/2024 21:45

BM revenue from batteries has gone down to levels seen early in 2024 again and thats with significant delays in getting new batteries connected to the grid. GRID at least have a floor on a number assets now being ring fenced to Octopus.

[cc2014] 05/8/2024 11:26

Lithium hits 79,500.

[cc2014] 29/7/2024 12:58

Amazing podcast here from Modo about the energy market



Two things. Prediction of 20 Gigs of interconnectors by the end of the decade

and the best quote ever "you have one job... to predict the future"