Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[jimmywilson612] 08/5/2024 10:47

Metoffice in April report;

Every part of UK experiencing high wind speeds above norm.

UKW surely must have made a Significant amount of free-cash flow in April!!!

[marksp2011] 06/5/2024 20:10

The buying will start when people think rates are going to drop so should be in advance or may the selling stops

[yump] 03/5/2024 23:06

The interest rate drops and the buying will not coincide.

[nickrl] 03/5/2024 19:47

@Adam be surprised if we get IR cut in June more like September and maybe a 2nd one before the year is out as i reckon MPC will want to see a firm trend to CPI staying low. Anyhow certainly agree that these and the REITs have broken free of the higher for longer mantra over last few weeks.

[adamb1978] 03/5/2024 07:21

I think this whole class of hard asset, REIT-like high divi payers (so not just renewables but things like TrIG, SHED etc) seems to have picked up more of a bid in recent weeks. Prices look a little firmer. Always felt like interest rate cuts would be a necessary condition for this, and given that we're expected to get the first BoE cut in June, prices looking more solid seems rationale.

[tuftymatt] 03/5/2024 07:10

I consider my renewable holdings to be a high yield long term bond. We get paid well to wait for the inevitable turnaround in this sector is how I see it.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[gbh2] 03/5/2024 07:08

SP going nowhere fast!

[marktime1231] 02/5/2024 20:25

Promising late strength in the sp, whether in response to yesterday's CM event or the approaching ex-div.

I have glanced through the CM presentation, which is historic known material, the recording of the event has not yet been posted but might contain something new if there was a q&a.



A review of the presentation was useful however in that it showed £580M of project debt being amortised within current cash flow at a rate of £50M pa. Beyond which despite a declining power price backdrop UKW are projecting surplus cash flow of about £200M pa above what is required to cover dividends, and those are funds which might be destined for debt reduction or reinvestment.

Term debt is show by year repayable, eg £100M in 2024, £150M in 2025 etc. The implication is gearing will fall from the current 39% until attractive new investment and borrowing on superior terms becomes available, and a hint cash may be available for more small buyback programmes if the discount persists. A period of derisking consolidation was the tone of things anyway rather than further meteoric expansion, and sort of suggesting UKW wasn't particularly vulnerable to higher interest rates.

This certainly didn't strike me as the precursor to a fund raising stock issue.

And a whole bunch of stuff about deriving longer life from assets which I didn't understand but was pointing to the value upside that will bring.

Whichever path UKW pursues there was plenty to attract investors looking for pretty safe income and for those looking for value growth. Let's hope we see that reflected in a share price recovery.

[nickrl] 29/4/2024 12:56

As there not operator of Hornsea their hands maybe tied as to what they can report being a minority owner.

[gemlotte55] 29/4/2024 11:51

April seems to have been quite windy, so perhaps up on past trends.

[marktime1231] 29/4/2024 11:46

How interesting and useful thank you. And who are we to disagree with the Met Office. They do indeed say that onshore wind conditions have been below long term average depending on location, but typically only of the order of 1-3%.

A 15% generation shortfall across the portfolio in Q1 must be due to outage or asset downtime as nickrl has suggested, and not necessarily just down to an unexpected grid problem with Hornsea. I have looked at REMIT reports, hard to be sure what they mean, but there is a possibility that a short period of "planned" non-availability of part of Hornsea first reported in January has stretched on through April. There may be other assets which have been unavailable too.

As has been commented this is signficant to the fortunes of UKW and should have been described transparently in the trading report, maybe even worthy of an rns.

[jimmywilson612] 29/4/2024 11:24

I can't see reports for offshore UK Wind, but the met office produce monthly reports for onshore weather patterns.

JAN -

FEB -

MARCH -

Most geographical locations showing mainly a below historical wind speeds for the 3 month reporting period.

[nickrl] 28/4/2024 13:06

@marktime re Hornsea its reported on REMIT as a export cable fault which may restrict output. Hornsea 1 is one of three trading units of Hornsea ONE and they are interconnected offshore although the capacity of the remaining two cables doesn't allow full output from the windfarm but in suboptimal wind conditions it has allowed them to capture output from Hornsea 1. I know they aren't the operator of Hornsea but they will clearly have the info to hand to have included it in the RNS/factsheet. Initially i thought perhaps the bulk of the reduced output ws as a result of this but am not so convinced. This isn't a real issue as we know weather is weather but again a bit more of an explanation would be helpful and i say they have all the information to hand.

[gbh2] 26/4/2024 11:25

Or the results are known by some?

[marktime1231] 26/4/2024 11:22

Well I am pleased that this is bouncing back today, tipped somewhere or a big buyer?

But. I am annoyed at the lack of trading narrative or statement from the AGM, irritated by the way UKW buried what turns out to be scant detail via a link, which took ages to find on their website rather than put out a summary on rns. And the casual explanations of Hornsea outage and low wind do not sound right as discussed above.

As with other renewable trusts perhaps it is time to be more critical about what UKW say or don't say.

By the way the NAV bridge did confirm healthy cash flow, the small net decline was entirely due to downward revision of power price outlook and no accretive developments.

[marktime1231] 25/4/2024 11:15

EU and UK both reporting record renewables generation in Q1 2024. Including the observation from one analyst looking at UK stats

"Wind dominated the mix, reaching 25.2 TWh, a record high for any Q1 period"

Can't find any reference to a recent Hornsea One problem either. How strange.

[marktime1231] 24/4/2024 21:40

Thanks, I will link through to look at that fact sheet in slower time.

Very surprised they say wind has been below budget again, hard to believe in fact, I have been monitoring wind conditions closely all year and they have been above average. Wasn't previously aware there had been a problem with Hornsea.

Despite all of which, as you say, income and cash flow in comfortable surplus.

Why I wonder have they struggled to close the discount even after boosting the dividend and running a buyback. Was there discussion of exposure to the allegation that some generators have overcharged for curtailment perhaps. Curious to know what the board will do next, and how bullish they were on performance and outlook.

[nickrl] 24/4/2024 20:58

@marktime there was a factsheet released couple of key points

-Q1 generation 15% below budget reflecting lower availability (including a grid
outage at Hornsea 1) and low wind resource
-Net cash generation of £127m
-Payment of £79m dividend in respect of Q4 2023 (3.43p per share, bringing 2023
dividend to 10p)
-13.8m of share buybacks during the quarter, 20.4m shares repurchased in total at a
cost of £28m
-Additional 1.24p per share for 2023 dividend, and buybacks, have returned £57m to
shareholders since October 2023

Surprised wind generation down so much as the battery boys have been saying their improved revenue has come from higher wind so maybe most of it was from Hornsea. Anyhow cash generation still good and certainly the daily system price has been well above £50/MWh ytd.

[marktime1231] 24/4/2024 18:08

Well we got the 2.5p dividend but a 4p or so decline in NAV. Nothing about current trading or things like how much in cash we are, unless it was discussed at the AGM. I wonder what the NAV bridge looks like, is it in the linked doc? Not quite the boost to share price I was hoping for, not yet anyway.

Expressing surprise that 11% voted for winding up. It will not surprise me in fact I will be laughing if that is because some folks blindly ticked Yes to all resolutions not realising the need to say no to 17. One to remember when reviewing the performance of the secretariat and investor relations who bungled the voting format. I can't imagine significant investors genuinely seeking to wind up UKW given its performance and outlook.

[rongetsrich] 23/4/2024 18:20

Nice jump today.

[marktime1231] 23/4/2024 14:44

Hoping tomorrow's AGM statement of NAV, dividend (2.5p?) and perhaps something about how well UKW have traded recently is positive enough to sustain this welcome return to the 140's.

[tuftymatt] 23/4/2024 10:16

A nice little bounce this morning I see.

Let's hope for much more of the same as this is unloved, along with the sector right now.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[gbh2] 23/4/2024 07:44

It's to be hoped there's something in the results to put some wind in this dead share price

[nickrl] 15/4/2024 12:38

@rongetsrich im no so sure they wouldn't as they benefit hugely currently (which im not compalining about) from wholesale cost being linked to gas in most settlement periods thus the mantra of renewables are cheap isn't being realised. There still looking into changing the way the leccy market works under the REMA (Review of Electricity Market Arrangements ) and one option is zonal pricing which could be quite detrimental to UKW with high concentration of wind in Scotland. It won't impact the existing subsidy arrangements so UKW reasonable well insulated if the average price falls across the portfolio but its a cloud hanging over it. Labour will want to push into the area of lowering costs but also their desire to for faster green energy will act as a restraint so all round probably will be neutral in the long run but markets care fickle when it comes to Labour and what they might do.