Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[cocopah] 10/9/2024 13:02

#waterloo01 I think it’s a dangerous game to guess what the low might be. The share price has been on a constant drip downwards for quite a while now. We haven’t even had notification of a ‘good day’ on the income front recently. The CEO is nowhere near as visible as he was when the share price was flying high. Another monthly update will be issued soon, but will probably just contain the platitudes of previous updates. All we can do is hope that the American assets will arrive on time and that the December update is positive. Still far too much opacity around the financials, especially the amount GSC are taking out of the pot.

[waterloo01] 10/9/2024 12:52

Indeed, but at a 45% + discount, there's a lot of room for error, and more than in the market cap IMO

[kernelthread] 10/9/2024 12:51

How do they work out the NAV though? A lot of these things seem to be little more than a guess which can later be revised sharply downwards.

[waterloo01] 10/9/2024 12:48

Even if one assumes a full divi closer to 5p than 7p (3 x 1p 1 x 2p final), and given the significant increase in capacity in the US coming on stream by year end, a 5p divi should be pretty much covered, giving a fairly conservative 9% yield at the current share price (13% if they keep to 7p) If the year goes well, the divi might be higher which would be further upside.

At a 45% discount to NAV with lots coming online, surely 58p is close to a bottom? (57.4p 12 month low)

[cc2014] 10/9/2024 07:36

Modo say ERCOT battery storage revenues 20% lower for first half of 2024 than for first half of 2023.

Paying $88,000Mw/yr compared with $70,000Mw/yr

[scruff1] 09/9/2024 21:11

george 823
Even more so - what was the point of that post? How was it relevant to GSF? Just rude - as usual

[stemis] 09/9/2024 15:33

Where GRID goes GSF will follow...

[zingaro] 08/9/2024 21:35

Stobbart. They would be increasing the suppliers to national grid for backup power, and point the way to gsf becoming minnows in a market dominated by energy suppliers

[george stobbart] 08/9/2024 21:05

Why the f should we care and how is this relevant to GSF’s portfolio?

[scruff1] 08/9/2024 20:40

The bucolic Buckinghamshire village of Granborough, while picturesque, is not much of a landmark. Mentioned in the Domesday Book, it briefly became a point of interest for James Bond fans when the abandoned rail station was referenced in the 2012 film Skyfall.

But the farmland around the village has been scoped out as the potential site for not one, but two giant battery installations and a solar farm.

The energy companies Statera and Statkraft have applied for permission to build two 500-megawatt sites near a new electricity substation, arguing it can support the move to a decarbonised electricity grid

[george stobart] 05/9/2024 15:14

Not a core market for GSF but massive jump in Battery energy storage revenues in Great Britain according to Modo data during Aug-24

Battery energy storage revenues in Great Britain jumped 42% in August - with batteries earning the second-highest revenue so far this year.

Revenues averaged £56k/MW/year in August, almost equalling the yearly high set in April, as revenues continued to closely follow wind generation.

Wholesale trading and Balancing Mechanism revenues were particularly high, reaching £33k/MW/year, the highest level since December 2022.

Wholesale price spreads averaged £73/MWh, their highest level in 2024. This was due to a 13% increase in gas prices and a 45% increase in wind generation.

The consistent high wind generation led to power prices falling negative for 49 hours across the month, bringing the total for 2024 up to 148 hours.

In the Balancing Mechanism batteries were dispatched for a record 1.4 GWh of Offers each day. This helped batteries earn their highest-ever Balancing Mechanism revenue, beating the previous record set in April 2024 by 22%.

Despite the high Balancing Mechanism and wholesale revenues, total revenues were fractionally lower than in April, due to lower Capacity Market payments and frequency response prices.

[zingaro] 03/9/2024 13:56

Kernel: Batteries are only one part of the cost. Generally, as long a you can load when the price is low or negative, you can sell it off at a profit, and, since electricity prices are not going down the installed batteries can still cover their costs/depreciation. Scale might be an issue for older installations, with"buyers" only seeking a minimum amount. But, GSF could group all its resources into one virtual battery and sell for example to one buyer such as Octopus. And, Octopus and its time based tariffs shows that this is a growing market. In addition it probably takes 2 years to get a system live into the grid given the grid's poor execution - an upgrade to an existing installation could potentially be much quicker.

[scruff1] 03/9/2024 08:13

So who has nicked our lunch? - meagre though it was

[kernelthread] 02/9/2024 18:52

For one reason, as technology and/or manufacturing processes improve the batteries reduce in price or get better in performance (or both). Those who are first to market run the risk of their lunch being eaten by a competitor who gets in afterwards and takes advantage of the better technology.

[nickelmer] 02/9/2024 15:34

is it just me, what I find so annoying is that I keep reading clickbait articles where reports state just how vital battery energy storage systems are going to be, and many are going to need to be built to cope with the energy transition, blah blah blah, so why then do they all the listed funds share prices perform so badly, does anyone smell fish?

[stemis] 30/8/2024 07:58

Interesting article and only goes to reinforce my view that many quoting the discount to NAV hav no real idea on what 'basis' the NAV is calculated. It would be interesting to see how much 'profit' GSF is actually making on a consolidated basis, but like pretty much all in this area, they'll almost certainly never reveal that information...

[cc2014] 30/8/2024 07:34

The Modo article is interesting.

"Daily battery storage revenue hits £90/MW/yr for the second time in 2024 on August 21st. (due to power prices going negative) which is about £101/MW/yr if you add CM contracts.

The only problem is if you look at GRID's accounts on page 26 in their DCF model which forecasts the NAV they are using an average of about £82/MW/yr for every day of the year in 2025, £98 in 2026 and then roughly £105-110 for future periods

Which basically explains the gap to NAV on GRID. I don't have the figures to hand for GSF but interesting nonetheless.

[noiseboy] 29/8/2024 21:05

https://modoenergy.com/research/august-2024-negative-prices-how-did-batteries-respond

[yump] 29/8/2024 08:15

We’ve always been good at pen-pushing though :-(

Consultants are probably being paid a fat fee for producing an ESG report.

[scruff1] 29/8/2024 08:07

Yep me too. Exactly the same. Interestingly yesterday (I think) I read the most positive employment figures in the US were in the sustainable energy sector the best being in wind and solar. Doesnt affect us directly but a positive light in the GSF darkness. May also influence Trumo in the event of his election win

[nickelmer] 29/8/2024 07:25

haha my thoughts exactly, no one cares about ESG, it should be about productivity and profitability, sleep well everyone

[cocopah] 29/8/2024 07:22

That moment when you receive notification of an RNS and have high hopes of exciting news about an income contract or a disposal or faster than expected progress … only to read it’s about their sustainability guff! Oh well sleep until December (and pray obviously).🫣🫣😂😂😂

[bountyhunter] 21/8/2024 19:26

Some so, some don't. Oak bloke's links seem ok - I'm used to posting them as I follow re DEC.
As you say he seems pretty optimistic on GSF :-)

[dodger777] 21/8/2024 19:23

Yeah sorry, I should of posted a link but they never work when I try it 😆
Cheers 👍🏻

[bountyhunter] 21/8/2024 19:20

Here it is



"Conclusion
I think the market has misunderstood GSF and ponders risks like Trump will somehow magically kill off the $60-$80m IRA tax allowance the day after he arrives into office - and the dividend shall be cut is seen as an inevitability. I’m not so sure. There’s a lot of IF and BUTS to these assumptions and risks, whereas the numbers appear to show a different and more certain story with significant margins of safety.

In any case even if both of those possibilities - however unlikely - do happen you are still looking at a discount of 44% to assets, which will re-rate upwards as they become operational and as inflation and discount rates revert down. Also operational assets that grow 78% through completion and energisation and cash generation also even if future Mwh revenues somehow remain modest..."