Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 30/7/2024 10:17

The price of Lithium cannot be helping which is down 6.5% this month and 67.5% year on year.

If Lithium keeps falling then incremental battery storage is built at lower cost than existing storage and will continue to push down on what prices new entrants are prepared to accept as arbitrage for trading.

The above would suggest that any business model for battery storage means you have to extract lots of revenue in the first 3 or so years after build out and not rely too much on revenue which goes 20 years out.

[cocopah] 30/7/2024 08:57

The volte-face on the dividend policy might have been wise but it signalled that management were wrong in the first place. The CEO does a fair amount of hand wringing and blaming others whilst overseeing ambiguity about revenue, fees and dividend cover. This all adds up to market insecurity which puts downward pressure on the share price. There is nothing to be done until future reporting of financial contribution results confirms/denies revenue expectations.

[scruff1] 30/7/2024 08:51

Well the drip down is continuing. There must be a point at which an investment in GSF is worth a punt to someone!!! Though not yet it seems. 50p 40p 30p ??

[stemis] 30/7/2024 08:27

The fall is only baffling if you don't believe the 'market' sees the dividend as anything other than largely a return of your own capital...

[george stobbart] 29/7/2024 18:06

The yield is 4% adjusted for the cut post the scam announcement

[scruff1] 29/7/2024 17:11

Heavy selling again. The drip and the frustration continues. Looking like a wise move Lord Gnome. Baffling with a yield of over 12.5%, a discount of over 40% to 106 and new .assets due on line soon (???). And Barmy Milliband building windmills and solar farms on every tussock to the exclusion of all else

[cc2014] 25/7/2024 14:56

I think it quite difficult to make estimates as they are in a number of distinct markets. However, they do publish predicted prices per MW/hr for all markets and we know the volumes so it's not that difficult to work out what the revenue will be and whether you like the NAV or not.

From my point of view, I find the long term power price assumptions too high and thus the NAV, but some of that is clearly in the share price and the market agrees.

We will see. I'm not in GSF right now. I took my money out on results today and chucked some of it on ORIT, JLEN and a few others which I consider less risky but still suitable returns.

[waterloo01] 25/7/2024 14:53

fair enough, so you should be able to work it out then, as they have and the nav was 103p

[stemis] 25/7/2024 14:51

Hope, mmm.

NAV - you are wrong. I'll refer you to note 17 in the Report & Accounts on Valuation Approach and Methodology - "The current portfolio consists of non-market traded investments and valuations are analysed using forecasted cash flows of the assets and used the discounted cash flow approach as the primary approach for the valuation. The Investment Manager prepares financial models utilising revenue forecasts from external parties to determine the fair value of the Company's investments..."

[waterloo01] 25/7/2024 14:22

Stemis, you seem to be asking somewhat rhetorical questions, or at least ones you think you know the answer to.

Yes I would hope that profits at a group level would cover the divi.

NAV. There is a clue in the name. It's the assets value (partly down to cost of build or license etc), not directly related to profits.

[stemis] 25/7/2024 14:09

In most normal companies, dividends are covered when group profits match or exceed the dividend cost. So, what do you think is the current group profit after tax and how much do you think it will increase by the build out completions and increased capacity?

NAV - considering the portfolio generated an ebitda last year of £28.4m (up 2% on the previous year) and was valued at £481.7m i.e. 17 x ebitda, what sort of profit group are the board projecting when they use discounted future profits to calculate the NAV they put in their accounts?

[waterloo01] 25/7/2024 12:41

Well If you believe that with the build out completions and near doubling capacity, that the revenue will increase and expenditure decrease to more than cover the divi by 1st Q 25.

Debt is very low and they have some undeveloped assets they might sell.

40% plus discount to recently reduced nav.

[stemis] 25/7/2024 08:44

From those who think this is undervalued at this level, I'd be interested on what basis they believe this to be the case

[mirandaj] 24/7/2024 21:00

Ref stagvalley 1768 post:



From approx. 36:35

[scruff1] 24/7/2024 20:48

the mark down of GSF had been overdone. Amen to that. Lets hope we have hit the bottom at long last and the bounce back is starting

[cocopah] 24/7/2024 17:19

#scruff1 Undoubtedly this will be on its knees until we see more income coming through (and of course, the way they siphon off management fees through GSC is a drag). However by early next year we should have clearer line of sight on both income and debt servicing charges … which should see a rerate from here … and possibly a better exit point. That’s what I’m hoping for anyway.🤷R05;♂️🤞🏻

[waterloo01] 24/7/2024 15:04

Not everyone is of quite so negative a view on the US as some here.

[apollocreed1] 24/7/2024 11:14

Theoakbloke wrote an in depth article about battery storage this week. Very informative. I tend to think that this is a good entry price for GSF

[daveoz1] 24/7/2024 10:08

scruff1: I'm the same. Just a gut feeling that surely this god-forsaken stock will rise significantly above 60p in the next year or two??? Although if Trump gets in, that will not be good for energy storage, renewable anything, electric cars etc....Gas and Oil will be laughing all the way to the bank...

[scruff1] 24/7/2024 07:50

I am close to joining you. Only thing stopping me is the 40% discount with other assets coming on stream (allegedly - though if its on time then that would be a first so I wouldnt bet the farm on that). There has to be an end to the drip down at some point - doesnt there ???

[lord gnome] 24/7/2024 07:36

I'm out. Had enough of the drip, drip in the share price. Lost faith in the story. Take the hit and move on. GLA.I'm usually last to sell, so this could be a bull sign. :-)