Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[cellular3] 11/11/2024 16:02

Ukw looking bit off as well. Think bbc2 Industry were on to something when Pierpoint nearly collapsed with all their esg bets.

[pretax2] 11/11/2024 15:33

I think I read somewhere that the US won't be able to significantly up their O&G production despite 'drill baby drill'. Meanwhile states such as California are so deeply into energy transition (in terms of policy and infrastructure) that jamming the breaks on will be impossible IMV. May I add, this would be totally counter productive, expensive and stupid.

I also think the extreme sentiment anchoring the electioneering rhetoric of Trump will be watered down: with the exception of immigration policy.

[george stobbart] 11/11/2024 13:42

JD Vance just said he hates GSF’s guts and massive tariffs are coming from JD, your new Daddy in the UK

[waterloo01] 11/11/2024 12:46

craigso, and I'd suggest more than reflected in the 48% discount to NAV

[craigso] 11/11/2024 12:43

I don't think a "value dividend investor" should be anywhere near these BESS funds.

The market does seem to want "able to sleep at night" dividends - both low risk and environmentally-friendly. But BESS funds are fundamentally a "merchant" power play - shifting MWhs from low-demand hours to high-demand hours. That's inherently more risky than just generating MWhs and selling them at a fixed price to somebody who consumes MWhs.

Maybe the geographical diversification and capacity contracts allow GSF to smooth variable revenue streams into a sustainable dividend - I'm bullish that it can - but that dividend stream looks a lot more risky than other "value" shares on the market.

[brucie5] 11/11/2024 10:18

pretax211 Nov '24 - 07:50 - 1998 of 1999
0 2 1
I read through the results and reviewed the IMC video again. This company has tremendous growth potential given its global scope. .....
It’s a moderately risky hold though, so perhaps not for more nervous investors.
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pretax, thanks for this, though given that I hold quite a few, now at a loss, I'm not sure whether you are just confirming my own bias! However, this exemplifies the risk in being a value dividend investor, as I have become and many like me on these bbs of a certain age, who may depend on their folios for income. When we get it right, we buy value discounted by the market, whose main outer is a high yet eventually sustainable dividend; when we get it wrong, it's because those shares turn out to be value traps, which then cut their payouts and struggle to get back anywhere near where they used to be - VOD a prime example.

[cellular3] 11/11/2024 09:19

I tried to rearrange the deckchairs on the titanic regarding gsf and grid but cancelling and potentially cancelling of divs and managers hiding and a share chart like Kamala Harris election results all tell me it’s time to drill baby drill. At least until 2059 when musk will have created his own battery source replacement and other brilliances

[pretax2] 11/11/2024 07:50

I read through the results and reviewed the IMC video again. This company has tremendous growth potential given its global scope. GSF is well below NAV so can’t issue new shares - thus trying to grow organically within a generous dividend framework. The company are on the cusp of a breakthrough in income with projects completing, so I’m optimistic. Many sustainable energy trusts have been hit for six, especially if restricted to the UK and some have cut their dividend completely. Makes 7p here look excellent and the company are right, IMO, to sync this to income flows. Growth in the battery storage sector is predicted to be substantial in coming years and GSF is a market leader with global and growing reach. With sensible leadership from the founder, the fund has longevity IMV.
The shareprice downtrend is obviously concerning investors (and probably the only reason for the negativity here), but if the company continues to expand and pay a health dividend I’m happy. If you reinvest, you double your money after about 6 years assuming the current yield holds.
It’s a moderately risky hold though, so perhaps not for more nervous investors.

[waterloo01] 11/11/2024 07:23

Interesting read across from GRID re UK revenues growing.

[craigso] 10/11/2024 07:46

re the wide range for US tax credit of $60-80m.

US tax credits are complicated. Because GSF doesn't actually pay $80m of taxes per year, it needs to "sell" the tax credit to somebody else. But it's far more complicated than "selling" $80m of tax credit for $80m of cash.

There are "tax equity" structures that squeeze large US taxpayers into the ownership of the assets attracting the tax credit. (not beneficial ownership, just enough legal ownership to qualify for the tax credit) But there are supply-and-demand issues for tax equity, as well as time-value-of-money calculations (paying cash today to receive a tax credit in the future).

All of that is to say that GSF probably knows that its tax credit entitlement is a bit north of $80m - assuming everything goes online when it's supposed to - but it doesn't know how much somebody will pay for that tax credit.

[cocopah] 08/11/2024 16:45

#probablynotphil taking everything in the round the way that the presentation was set out, looked like an explainer for their under-par performance (for example, here’s what has happened in the last six years … followed by GSF’s response). Furthermore, the last bullet point which said that “GSF continues to explore the optimal dividend strategy to meet the merchant nature of the asset class” … which means at best the future dividend strategy is up-in-the--air and at worst we can expect a lower profile of dividends. Finally, the lack of clarity of exactly what they are going to do about pre-construction assets … lots of ‘possibilities’, but nothing concrete. They have grown the size/geography of the business, but they have also exponentially grown staff costs.

I repeat, I also still do not like the amount that #GSC take from the pot.

#GSF generates income by the hour and monitor it keenly, so the continued lack of clarity on income is frustrating. At the end of the day if it ends up being as bad as I think it might, we will see a further drop in the share price before any recovery. We might as well face that now rather than in December.

[probablynotphil] 08/11/2024 13:37

@cocopah what did you not like about it specifically? I've scanned through and it all seems ok to me. Not much new information in a good/bad way.

[cocopah] 08/11/2024 11:21

Well here it is … a brief read suggests quite desperation. I’d prepare yourselves for a bad income result and a dividend cut in future periods … make of it what you will but I continue to be disillusioned with #GSC greedy fingers and the lack of clarity on performance on an ongoing basis. I pray the tax credit will arrive and I can get out with singed fingers rather than a burnt arm! ⬇️

hxxps://www.gsenergystoragefund.com/docs/librariesprovider22/archive/presentations/gsf-capital-market-day-presentation_2024.pdf

[cocopah] 07/11/2024 18:32

#waterloo01 GSF said, on the capital markets notification, that the materials would be on the company website after the event. I have yet to see them anywhere. I know GSF said that there would be no new information however it would still be interesting to see what information they were feeding to the analysts and institutional investors and more importantly what questions those analysts and investors asked and how they were answered. 🤷‍a94;️🤔

[waterloo01] 07/11/2024 18:13

Cocopah, we'll see indeed, although the batteries will be put into more use due to low wind etc. It's surely about recycling. ie loading up when prices are low and discharging when high. Rinse and repeat.

Very unhappy with share price and the ATL, esp post markets day.

[cocopah] 07/11/2024 18:08

Looking for good news … only to see that Germany is currently windless and using more gas, as we continue to import it … I think we will all find out that we underestimated how bad the short-term is in the December update. 🙄🫣

[stemis] 07/11/2024 17:45

SpectoAcc 28 Oct '24 - 15:54 - 1963 of 1988

As long as it keeps ticking up, @StEmIS should stay away ;)

Never said a word...

[scruff1] 07/11/2024 17:39

Is this another ATL :-(

[waterloo01] 07/11/2024 14:10

Not the impact hoped for from markets day. Might need to see what Trump does and doesn't do to find out any effect on US market going forward.

[cc2014] 07/11/2024 11:34

I have a different question. How can GSF not know whether they are getting $60m or $80m back. That's a wide variation.

I've looked at the rules on this and they should know at least to the nearest couple of million.

[spectoacc] 07/11/2024 10:45

Interesting take. Were GSF planning to expand in US tho?

[alan pt] 07/11/2024 10:44

Interesting view (via Citywire):

JPMorgan Cazenove analyst Christopher Brown flagged Gore Street Energy Storage (GSF), which fell 3.5% on Wednesday, as a beneficiary given its battery assets in California and Texas.

Brown said that while the trust was due $60m-$80m of Inflation Reduction Act credits early next year, they were not at ‘big risk’ and ‘more generally if there is less build out of Bess [battery energy storage systems] in the US that would be good for existing assets as there would be less risk of saturation, while potentially lower corporate taxes would also be helpful’.

[george stobart] 07/11/2024 09:53

rumour says Trump and JD Vance will send out the army to rip off Gore Street batteries

[craigso] 07/11/2024 09:33

I suspect there may have been many last minute cancellations / no-shows yesterday. We all assumed that it would take a few days to know the election results for sure. Instead we received a quick result and investors / traders will have needed to be at their desks during trading hours yesterday...