Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 25/7/2024 15:56

I think it quite difficult to make estimates as they are in a number of distinct markets. However, they do publish predicted prices per MW/hr for all markets and we know the volumes so it's not that difficult to work out what the revenue will be and whether you like the NAV or not.

From my point of view, I find the long term power price assumptions too high and thus the NAV, but some of that is clearly in the share price and the market agrees.

We will see. I'm not in GSF right now. I took my money out on results today and chucked some of it on ORIT, JLEN and a few others which I consider less risky but still suitable returns.

[waterloo01] 25/7/2024 15:53

fair enough, so you should be able to work it out then, as they have and the nav was 103p

[stemis] 25/7/2024 15:51

Hope, mmm.

NAV - you are wrong. I'll refer you to note 17 in the Report & Accounts on Valuation Approach and Methodology - "The current portfolio consists of non-market traded investments and valuations are analysed using forecasted cash flows of the assets and used the discounted cash flow approach as the primary approach for the valuation. The Investment Manager prepares financial models utilising revenue forecasts from external parties to determine the fair value of the Company's investments..."

[waterloo01] 25/7/2024 15:22

Stemis, you seem to be asking somewhat rhetorical questions, or at least ones you think you know the answer to.

Yes I would hope that profits at a group level would cover the divi.

NAV. There is a clue in the name. It's the assets value (partly down to cost of build or license etc), not directly related to profits.

[stemis] 25/7/2024 15:09

In most normal companies, dividends are covered when group profits match or exceed the dividend cost. So, what do you think is the current group profit after tax and how much do you think it will increase by the build out completions and increased capacity?

NAV - considering the portfolio generated an ebitda last year of £28.4m (up 2% on the previous year) and was valued at £481.7m i.e. 17 x ebitda, what sort of profit group are the board projecting when they use discounted future profits to calculate the NAV they put in their accounts?

[waterloo01] 25/7/2024 13:41

Well If you believe that with the build out completions and near doubling capacity, that the revenue will increase and expenditure decrease to more than cover the divi by 1st Q 25.

Debt is very low and they have some undeveloped assets they might sell.

40% plus discount to recently reduced nav.

[stemis] 25/7/2024 09:44

From those who think this is undervalued at this level, I'd be interested on what basis they believe this to be the case

[mirandaj] 24/7/2024 22:00

Ref stagvalley 1768 post:



From approx. 36:35

[scruff1] 24/7/2024 21:48

the mark down of GSF had been overdone. Amen to that. Lets hope we have hit the bottom at long last and the bounce back is starting

[cocopah] 24/7/2024 18:19

#scruff1 Undoubtedly this will be on its knees until we see more income coming through (and of course, the way they siphon off management fees through GSC is a drag). However by early next year we should have clearer line of sight on both income and debt servicing charges … which should see a rerate from here … and possibly a better exit point. That’s what I’m hoping for anyway.🤷R05;♂️🤞🏻

[waterloo01] 24/7/2024 16:04

Not everyone is of quite so negative a view on the US as some here.

[apollocreed1] 24/7/2024 12:14

Theoakbloke wrote an in depth article about battery storage this week. Very informative. I tend to think that this is a good entry price for GSF

[daveoz1] 24/7/2024 11:08

scruff1: I'm the same. Just a gut feeling that surely this god-forsaken stock will rise significantly above 60p in the next year or two??? Although if Trump gets in, that will not be good for energy storage, renewable anything, electric cars etc....Gas and Oil will be laughing all the way to the bank...

[scruff1] 24/7/2024 08:50

I am close to joining you. Only thing stopping me is the 40% discount with other assets coming on stream (allegedly - though if its on time then that would be a first so I wouldnt bet the farm on that). There has to be an end to the drip down at some point - doesnt there ???

[lord gnome] 24/7/2024 08:36

I'm out. Had enough of the drip, drip in the share price. Lost faith in the story. Take the hit and move on. GLA.I'm usually last to sell, so this could be a bull sign. :-)

[scruff1] 24/7/2024 08:34

GSF - Guess the Size of the Final. I would put moneu on it being less than 4p.

[cousinit] 24/7/2024 08:33

I guess the conclusion I came to a month or so ago was that the GSF assets/diversification put it ahead of the other battery storage trusts, but that the revenues were largely uncontracted, so the dividend (despite what the Board had said to that point) was based on projections, not hard cash.

At the time there were a number of other (discounted) renewable trusts to switch into with yields of 8/9% where there were clear PPAs and hedging underpinning the revenues, so the 10/11% yield of GSF didn't seem worth the stretch.

I think the value will emerge here in the next couple of years, but it'll likely be bumpy (although not as much as the other storage trusts!)

[cc2014] 24/7/2024 08:31

Wiggle room is:

1 next dividend declaration end Sept
1. End Dec
1. End Mar
4. End Jun

Big Rock is planned to be energised End Dec. If two months to become revenue generating that's end Feb.
Dogfish is planned to be energised End Feb.

edit: but the question is probably not about construction delay risk, it's probably more about when will be the revenue per unit once they are built.

[spectoacc] 24/7/2024 08:14

No chance of full cancellation IMO - but they've left themselves wiggle room to pay less than 4p Final.

[nickelmer] 24/7/2024 08:12

If they cancel the 4p "special" dividend, the payout is 3p so a 5% yield on current price, with potential for dividend increase when fully built out, surely not so bad....

[scruff1] 23/7/2024 20:27

At the moment ???? Have you looked at the graph? :-(

Well sub 60 been and gone. Sub 50 next?