Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 19/11/2024 17:41

atlantic, it's possible but would require more than a few quarters of clear divi cover. .The current discount to NAV more than reflects the current situation. I added a few at 51p.

[atlantic57] 19/11/2024 17:27

Waterloo Generally when shares trade at such a significant discount to net assets it implies the market does not believe the net asset value.However the recent bank funding is positive .

Do you see the shares returning to the pound level
cheers

[cocopah] 19/11/2024 12:07

Dear Lord another factsheet has landed with the good news that Irish income is falling from October 1st (changes to the DS3 scalers) albeit couched in their usual legerdemain way.

Presumably our first mover advantage, investing in the wrong battery technology, is the reason they put the other policy change front and centre (I expect our U.K. batteries to be swapped out for six hour generation ones in due course).

As usual GSF don’t reveal the true state of affairs on income, that will be our Xmas bonus!

One day perhaps we will see the sunny uplands. Today feels like the weather cold and foreboding. 🫣

[waterloo01] 19/11/2024 10:14

Last results generated £41.4 million. The portfolio generated an operational EBITDA of £28.4 million. The Company achieved an operational dividend cover of 0.78x and a fund-level dividend cover of 0.56x.

Since then other assets have come on-stream, and they recently announced fixed-price contract, worth over $14m per yr (and leaves a lot more revenue still to be earnt) from Big Rock coming on stream summer. Add in the other developments that will come on steam similar timeframe. Revenues fluctuating, but stabilising UK

So if they get the full US tax credit, they could meet the full divi this yr, and from next FY with all the above online, I'd say they should meet full divi cover. Meanwhile they remain very lowly geared.

[stemis] 19/11/2024 09:49

What numbers are you using?

[waterloo01] 19/11/2024 09:15

Well even on existing numbers, it's very close to being covered at that level. Add in the new US revenues and I'd suggest it's covered

[stemis] 19/11/2024 09:11

Is it 'almost certainly fully covered' at this level? I'd be interested to see your calculation...

[scruff1] 19/11/2024 08:58

Seeing as the share price has lost 60% of its value and still falling daily its a good job we have a yield of 14% (or even 8%) a discount of over 50% and goodies in the pipeline. No wonder the shares are being mopped up in a frenzy - all 90,000 today obviously indicated falsely as sells.

[waterloo01] 19/11/2024 08:15

As pointed out elsewhere, even if they only keep to 4p divi (and I think they will deliver closer to 7p) at 50pish this will still deliver a divi of around 8% and almost certainly fully covered at that level.

[craigso] 17/11/2024 10:38

300-350bps over SONIA is about right. In no way does that pricing reflect a distressed debtor or excess leverage.

[george stobbart] 17/11/2024 07:31

Stop sending hateful notifications on my phone Sunday morning.

Trump won, the world is healing and the Starmer government is collapsing with a new scandal every day.

Let’s all go to church. It’s Sunday

[route1] 17/11/2024 01:43

IMV it does not really matter how many bpsover or under Sonia this facility has been agreed; what really matters is that the RCFtogether with other funding/loan facilities are now in place allowing the company to move forward and operate efficiently and successfully, I am confident that the facilities will be drawn down prudently as and when required.

[waterloo01] 15/11/2024 16:30

Added some at 51. Recent news re contract and the banking facilities gives some reassurance. They might even earn their fees (or not).

[cc2014] 15/11/2024 11:15

The question is whether 300-350bp over SONIA is cheap or expensive.

[craigso] 15/11/2024 10:06

Having worked in project finance in the power industry, I have zero doubt that banks willing to lend more money is highly positive. It means that GSF has shown them actual fixed revenue contracts, and not just guess-timates of future power prices.

Most times I would talk to project finance bankers about "merchant revenues" I would be told to go find a PPA...

[riskvsreward] 15/11/2024 09:53

The only positive that can be taken is that banks are still happy to lend to them, so some due diligence on their part to be satisfied perhaps the nav does mean something.

[george stobart] 15/11/2024 09:52

we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of capitalism.

[stargazerspark] 15/11/2024 09:50

I'm taking a more positive view.
Assuming GSF isn't going to run off then this means more available cash therefore higher probability of a dividend.
The divi needs to come from income, which doesn't require positive cash in a growing business as they have liabilities to build out and hence further increase revenues.

However, given the share price can't exceed NAV for the forseeable there the Investment Manager has a significant conflict in how it runs the business (raising debt/ paying dividends etc).

[pretax2] 15/11/2024 09:48

Scruff, GSF is like a junior company; a growth stock with an unusually high distributive yield. It’s best to hold on to these stocks/fund because they can become very valuable over time. You may not have the risk tolerance. But with risk comes the reward. Good luck.