Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[mindthestash] 12/12/2024 19:26

All very interesting but what divi do you think they can reasonably afford?

[cocopah] 12/12/2024 18:31

#yump yes … and it’s worse than that because they can also claim a performance related bonus if the NAV rises but there is no penalty if it falls … just no payment (thankfully lol).

[cocopah] 12/12/2024 18:20

Operational EBITDA of £10.9m (which is bad enough on income given more assets are now contributing since the last set of financials - we know the excuses) … but worse … costs of the company and intermediate holding companies of £4.61m.

That’s before we look at the interest costs and associated fees adding up to £1m … and these will be ballooning from here!

I cannot believe that institutional investors are not disturbed by the above.🫣

The more I look at the latest financials the more I become concerned at them ever managing to cover the dividend at 7p. I tried to ask questions about this on the Investor Meets Forum and was duly ignored.

[george stobbart] 12/12/2024 18:14

I ate an onion with an egg

[yump] 12/12/2024 18:10

Must be nice to have your income related to a subjective measure you make up yourself.

I should have tried that years ago with my boss.

"The work you can see is only a part of what I have put in. There's at least the same amount of condensed mental hours. I think I should have at least 50% more salary".

"You're fired"

[cocopah] 12/12/2024 18:02

£2,712,601 paid in investment fees for the period (based on the finger in the air NAV by the way). £1,387,354 still outstanding too!

[cocopah] 12/12/2024 17:39

Does anyone know (from the information we were given below) what the previous TSS were and therefore what is the current impact on income?

I would hazard a guess that nobody does and this is typical of the ‘smoke and mirrors’ approach that GSF senior management use … jnvestors need clarity not confiscation.

“DS3 prices are contingent on the SNSP (System Non-Synchronous Penetration), a measure of renewable penetration on the grid. The SNSP bands impact the Temporal Scarcity Scalars (TSS), and thereby affect DS3 prices. These changes were implemented on
October 1st.

The TSS has been reduced to 4.0 when SNSP > 70% and to 2.25 when SNSP > 60%.

[waterloo01] 12/12/2024 17:03

Decent size buying at the close

[waterloo01] 12/12/2024 14:55

CC2014, I think keeping the optionality on using funds to build out, upgrade or return to holders is prudent. If the portfolio delivers the revenue as they hope, the cash would be best used to expand/upgrade the capacity. Wherever the cash delivers the best long term rtn.

[waterloo01] 12/12/2024 14:53

Mindthestash, well £10mpw is hopefully a low. Also the revenue from California starts, it should deliver a higher £mpw, if the $14m deal is anything to go by.

hxxps://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/gore-street-jumps-as-california-contract-quadruples-cashflows/a2452402

$14m (£10.7m) annual contract for its Big Rock asset in California, which would quadruple cashflows to underpin almost a third of the 7p dividend.

[craigso] 12/12/2024 13:59

Totally agree, CC. And that these guys need some training in investor relations.

[cc2014] 12/12/2024 13:51

I'm sorry Craig but if they know how much they are entitled to but won't say due to commercial reasons then that's how they should answer the question.

[cellular3] 12/12/2024 13:24

New Nav is 10p judging by Reform UK potential

[craigso] 12/12/2024 13:02

Thanks for the update.

re. US tax equity. I expect that GSF knows how much it will be entitled to. But it's guessing as to how much it can be sold for. Their advisers have probably told them not to publish the entitlement amount either because whoever ends up providing the tax equity won't want their "profit" to end up in the public record.

But you'd have to be pretty ignorant of US politics to think that Trump can come in and cancel parts of tax law simply by executive order. So that money is coming and hopefully that will provide a boost to the share price.

And yeah... obviously they want to use the money to build out the portfolio. Either duration extension or the development pipeline. But giving the money back now as uncovered dividends hasn't been popular, nor did token share buybacks work at GRID or HEIT (can't remember which tried that). So it's wait and hope for them...

[cocopah] 12/12/2024 12:41

The market is simply not buying the story, share price firmly below 50p now. Increased capacity and lower income with higher percentage of costs is never a good sell either. The CEO Says that he “feels the pain on the share price”, but he doesn’t add that he receives lots of income through #GSC.

Notice it’s always external issues to blame for lower income … unseasonably high temperatures, lack of wind, increasing competition etc … It’s never their fault. Trying to get some simplicity around income generation is difficult enough without the complex jargon and mumbo-jumbo expressed in the presentation.

It smacks of desperation when the future strategy on investment will be dependent upon what shareholders think … that is what senior management are paid to do!

[mindthestash] 12/12/2024 12:40

Afternoon all

investor for a year or so but first post here

good news on build out but.....

my problem is this waterloo1 - grateful for any help here

CEO said in conversation - note not in print -If they hit average (£15per MWH) over full 750 mw, full divi would be covered.

HOWEVER SEE page 15 -

Market Revenue £(000s) £/MW/hr £/MWh/hr
Great Britain 7,230 7.66 7.98
Island of Ireland 7,740 13.55 24.26
Germany 1,590 16.50 12.52
Texas 920 6.97 3.48
Weighted Average 10.03 10.83

Across the current generating portfolio the achieved revenue was circa £10/MW/h

is £15 really possible - |UK and texas look nowhere near and thats 50% of revenues - you'll need £20+ MWh from the rest to get to close to weighted average of £15 - or am i missing something

help please...

[cc2014] 12/12/2024 12:26

I agree Waterloo that some of the downside is priced in and I'm warming to the view that GSF is fairly valued not overvalued.

However, I just can't get comfortable with Alex. I asked today why the large range of tax credit of $60-80m and the answer was that they don't know precisely because when they sell it they will get between 90-95% of it's face value. But $60-80m is not a 5% difference in any way at all. I feel like he's ducking and diving and not honestly answering the question.

Further, the question around use of cash after the next 3 assets are built out by end February was really poor. "we are going to consult major shareholders about it". wtf. Haven't they done that already. I'm sure they will have so why just not answer the question. I think the answer is actually quite simple in that they want to build out the portfolio but the major shareholders aren't currently on board with that. I suspect they have already made financial commitments and not proceeding would be costly and embarrassing.


I the end I don't have to like Alex. I just have to buy low and sell high. I am as I said warming to the idea that there is value here. However, I'm struggling to see how the 7p dividend is covered. I expect it will not be delivered and there will be some compromise amount of say 6p, which will likely knock the shareprice down on the day it happens.

All imho. In general I feel the whole renewable sector is oversold so this may be the bottom anyway. It's just that I feel more comfortable with some of the renewables with clearer revenue streams.

[sleveen] 12/12/2024 12:12

CC2014

Thanks, penny dropeth.

[cousinit] 12/12/2024 12:03

Such glum faces at the end of the presentation. Clearly tough not being able to offer anything particularly concrete in terms of returns.

[waterloo01] 12/12/2024 11:56

CC2014, surely your downside is already more than priced into the share price What's not priced is delivery, which, market dynamics outside their control, they seem pretty confident of.

[cc2014] 12/12/2024 11:52

sleveen.

if the high values are achieved that will be great for shareholders and will prove the NAV is correct.

if they are not achieved then the NAV is too high and it's all going to be a disappointment.

[joe say] 12/12/2024 11:47

He really does qualify that £15 pMwh figures doesn't he?

There's his exit when it's only £14

[waterloo01] 12/12/2024 11:46

Hint at buy backs? Mechanisms to deliver shareholder returns.

[waterloo01] 12/12/2024 11:34

If they hit average (£15per MWH) over full 750 mw, full divi would be covered.