Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[westofengland] 11/2/2019 15:22

Its a good solid business as markdallara outlined last month.

I sense that it will continue to reward yet its the kind of stock to buy and hold rather than worry about the short term.

Lest we ever forget, we have some excellent engineering businesses in the UK and this, without question, is one of them.

Ultimately, investing in staff, taking on apprentices and keeping going while there may be uncertainties among the competition brings rewards. The new dividend policy outlined with the 2017/18 results will suddenly bring a new group of investors aboard. Like markdallara, buy and it will reward when you least expect it and there's a steady, growing dividend stream coming through.

[jaf111] 04/2/2019 08:10

....and starts the day very strongly too......

[deadly] 01/2/2019 21:36

strong 5% rise today; news somewhere?

[markdallara] 05/1/2019 17:39

You could also look at Richard Beddard's recent write up on triple eye. However he does profess to select on a long term basis without worrying about the initial price too much so it might not help. I bought some recently at £28 expecting an uptick after the last 6 monthly. Hasn't happened yet. As an engineer I have a soft spot for this sort of business, possibly an emotion inconsistent with share investment! They do appear however to invest in staff and invest for the future which is refreshing in an age dominated by short term behaviours. Hope it pans out. A look at the last 15 years chart indicates steady growth if you ignore the peaks and troughs.

[shanklin] 04/1/2019 11:24

blondeamon

It would help if there were broker forecasts or even if some of the very enthusiastic posters here would have a go at conservatively estimating profits over the next year or two.

Then it might be possible to have a rational conversation as to what share price GDWN should be trading at.

[coolen] 19/12/2018 21:54

When was the £42 high ?

[norbert colon] 18/12/2018 16:51

A great set of results that clearly show the business moving back up the curve.Assuming only modest revenue growth for FY2019 of say 8% and maintaining 30% GM there is no reason why a move back to historical (2013-2015) margins of low/mid double digits can't be obtained. We would then back back on a PE of 10 and generating free cash of £6m with a divi up around 140p yielding 5% at current prices. This business historically has generating a ROE/ROCE of 25% and I'm sure the Goodwins are working hard to secure those big contracts eluded which will pave the way to re-rating of the share price.The only thing I don't really like is the fairly high level of CAPEX but this is going to drop to circa 55% of PTP on a rolling 3yr basis in line with historical norms but still high whichever way you look at it. This business isn't going bust that's very sure and I can see this being a very long term holding for me now.

[sspurt] 18/12/2018 15:57

Yup, a lot to like. Would be helpful if Stockdale produced forecasts for the company.

[kneecaps2] 18/12/2018 12:10

Super results today and excellent good quality order books. Still a buy and I expect the share price to beat the previous all time high of about £42 within the next couple of years.

[martywidget] 15/11/2018 04:26

11 shares for the future
by Richard Beddard from interactive investor | 9th November 2018 15:47

Having visited the foundry, companies analyst Richard Beddard puts the stock ranked number one by his Decision Engine in the spotlight.

Before I report on a visit to Goodwin, I have made a minor change to the presentation of the Decision Engine's output...

...My confidence in Goodwin, now the top ranked share, received a boost on Wednesday when I visited a number of the company's factories with three other shareholders...

Article:

[nimbo1] 05/10/2018 08:47

just bought some - fingers crossed for my late entry

[shanklin] 04/10/2018 07:01

I see there are no broker forecasts for GDWN (on Stockopedia at least).

What do shareholders here expect going forward please?

[westofengland] 07/9/2018 17:37

Have bought a few more- interesting that Goodwin have gone ex dividend and the price is very steady to firm. Feels like this may surprise on the upside.Kneecaps2 -is there anything else you like the look of?

[wilmdav] 26/7/2018 13:25

Excellent post, bench2.

I have corrected a couple of errors in my hurriedly prepared spreadsheet. Eps charts now show the correct dividend for 2018 alongside reported eps, which illustrates the proportional jump. I agree, this shows confidence about earnings in 2019 and beyond. They have spent heavily on capex during the last 6 years. My guess is that they feel this can be reduced during the years ahead.
Historic yield in now 3.7% at a share price of 2280p

Same link:

[bench2] 26/7/2018 11:12

Many thanks David W , great spreadsheets . I used to own this many moons ago alongside : Fw Thorpe , Dewhurst and VP , all family controlled and hence at 7x PER . I parted with Goodwin at 4000p as the multiple and narrow focus on Oil and Mining capex worried me . They have obviously made great strides in the past few years to diversify both the customer and product base into many geographies , so I feel it is a more balanced company albiet still tied to cyclical capex demand , but with some extra tech . I have now read the CS and CEO statements twice , and I would urge everyone to do so . It is rare for both Goodwin and any company to give such a useful historical review of the past , and the amount of profit paid out to license holders . My problem is the decision to almost double the annual dividend . In the last but one para re Change in Div Policy : The dividend was 20% of Post Tax Profits + Depn and Amortisation and the new policy will be 38% of the same . For 2018 the post tax profit was 9435k add 5243k Depn + 1138k Amort gives 15,816k ... 38% would be 6010k which is fine , but 1558k of profit was a one off sale of industrial land in India !! My conclusion is that the board ( 9 Directors of which 6 are Goodwin's ) must be very confident about 2019 and future years to commit to such a high level of payout ( 70% of 2018 earnings ) . Great for HMRC as divs outside of an ISA are taxed quite heavily . I am tempted to buy back in .

[westofengland] 26/7/2018 11:07

Dear Kneecaps2 and other commentators,

Thank you for your observations; how marvellous to be a shareholder in a business that thinks carefully about the future and has solid plans to accomplish good profits for shareholders. All the comments in the statement are about how best to achieve for all stakeholders rather than complaining about challenges of which I am sure there have been many.

A reminder that good businesses eventually get the market recognition they deserve and I sense Goodwin has a long way to go as other sensible investors buy into a clear growth story.

[redartbmud] 26/7/2018 10:03

Absolutely.

I did pick some up at £15.99 a while ago, bringing down my average price.
My first purchase was at just over £34!!
In the money and a 'safe' dividend to boot!

Yes maybe buy the dip!!


red

[tudes100] 26/7/2018 09:42

Can't win them all Red. I was too slow to spot the RNS & by the time I'd got a quote up it was north of £22, have to hope for a retrace over the coming weeks.

[redartbmud] 26/7/2018 09:35

Tudes

Agreed.
I saw the RNS as it was issued, but I was focusing on Rsw results, where I have a big stake. The trigger was the dividend increase. I should have bought as soon as I saw the number.

Hey ho....

[tudes100] 26/7/2018 09:30

I think what seems to shine through really strongly is that the Co have prepared for tougher markets & as a result have a much leaner, more efficient business than they did a few yrs ago. If this is coupled with favourable sentiment in their end markets then there is no reason why they can't, over time, move back towards delivering 200-250p EPS which should see the share price well north of £30 imo. If only I could have got a little more stock this morning at £20, well done to those who managed it !

[amrishbhim] 26/7/2018 09:07

Should reach 3000/4000 with that RNS

[alexisk] 26/7/2018 09:04

Woe, great results, this company is really back on track.

[top tips] 26/7/2018 08:57

Nice set of results.