Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 21/12/2015 14:15

APAD: Jimmy Jones - Sorry - do not get the reference -Unless you mean have a stop loss in place but then at what %age drop from top - I have lost more in the past by selling on a stop loss and then missing a multibagger turn round. Hindsight is perfect !!!!!!!!!!!!!.


If broker is right a lot more to fall

Goodwin broker views
Date Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes
21 Dec Beaufort Securities Hold 1,699.50 1,263.00 1,263.00 Reiterates

[apad] 21/12/2015 10:35

Also expecting a dividend cut - prudent family ownership rather than borrowing to pay a la Tesco.
This has been my Jimmy Jones lesson of 2015, Pug.
apad

[redartbmud] 21/12/2015 10:25

I expect Gdwn to survive, but the North Sea O&G industry is now toast, which is a close market. No recovery around the world, and getting worse.
There will be a very long period of intensive care, and surely they must cut the dividend, as a best case scenario.

red

[pugugly] 21/12/2015 09:15

Thanks for all the above comments. Just goes to show that TIMING is critical. Had dropped off my radar. on checking database last time I looked was in 2009
File opened 18/12/09 at 975/1000 re Watch 09. and fall from year high of 1293. but year low 708

[belgraviaboy] 18/12/2015 15:46

Very long term holder here.

Cashflow is an issue (and I would imagine down to O&G cos. stretching payment terms), but I don't see a rights issue. Additional banking funding agreed and a huge family shareholding (can't see them wanting to dilute or stump-up cash).

I think there could be tentative signs that the pre-tax is bottoming out. Need to compare these results to second half last year (£6.2m v £6.7m?). Could we see £12m pre-tax next year with no O&G rebound?

I think the forward guidance sounds downbeat because Goodwin expect to earn considerably more than the current run rate, rather than then expecting further deterioration.

The chart looks horrible, however this is an excellent company exposed to a cyclical downturn in one of its markets.

If the price decline continues I will be adding.

[meijiman] 18/12/2015 12:46

From a quick read I would not rush in here.Expect further weakness. Decent company for the long term-but too early.

[redartbmud] 18/12/2015 12:14

Pug

Yes still following.
Concerns:
1. 2 year turnaround, at best.
2. Poor cash flow. If T/o down why are debtors not reducing.
3. All foundries are suffering. Little chance of stealing business, and margins are likely to be eroded by overcapacity/will to keep customers in a buyers market.
4. Determination to hang onto Brazil when business is in a real slump.
5. Dividend at serious risk.
6. Rights issue?

Holding - buyer at £15?

Red

[pugugly] 18/12/2015 11:29

Cash flow looks very nasty also increase in trade debtors - no indication of possibe impairment BUT ..

Interesting diversification develpments but still very much in the area of should rather than will.

On balance a very honest set of accounts - warts adn all - but business very much under pressure -

One for my watch list but no action at this stage

Thoughs from anyone still following ?

[dangersimpson2] 19/11/2015 15:47

Wow, that would be a phenomenal entry point - can but hope.

[srpactive] 19/11/2015 15:18

If it breaks 2188p, this is heading to 1680p.

[quattro44] 24/7/2015 14:17

Wonderfully good honest company with proper engineering products that goes about things in all the correct ways and invests for the future. A breath of fresh air.

[apad] 24/7/2015 10:11

ps
bombproof balance sheet.

[apad] 24/7/2015 10:10

I disagree, sebass. It is a model of clarity (as usual) and they have positive areas. In Goodwin style "not as bad as feared" translates as a positive.
At the risk of looking a fool I reckon the market will like this after reflection.
apad

[sebass] 24/7/2015 09:42

So I have Q4 this year approx. revenue £19 ptp £3 versus last year £28m and ptp £5m. "possibility that the performance in this new financial year will not be as bad as feared" not exactly confidence boosting

[cockneyrebel] 23/6/2015 16:38

China also seems to be getting a bit more omph again too imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 23/6/2015 16:38

bid offer spread is often wide like that but usually trades a bit within. So probably 5% in reality and most buys modest move the bid up so it's less painful that it might look imo.

About par for small cap stocks that are rather illiquid imo, looks worse being a £26 share imo.

CR

[redartbmud] 23/6/2015 16:34

Sky

The bid/offer spread is £1.75, which is quite wide.
How does that relate to the chart, if at all?

[cockneyrebel] 23/6/2015 16:29

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[cockneyrebel] 23/6/2015 16:27

Chart starting to turn here?

Making another nice level of support to bounce from perhaps?

Results in July

[chrismcglone] 13/4/2015 17:23

That just about sums it up WokingBlade. I’ve been waiting a while for another chance to buy in here and this is probably a decent time. However, the oil industry and associated business is still going to be in a slump for a year or two yet imo.

Will that put me off picking up a few shares? Probably not.

[wokingblade] 20/3/2015 07:27

Patient family ownership and investment in the business for the long term will pay out over time. Short term, more oil pain on its way (IMHO) will weigh on the share price

WB
(Long GDWN)

[phat hair] 17/3/2015 18:55

Comments on the situation here?