Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[coolen] 29/3/2016 20:52

I've been in Goodwin in a smallish way alongside Mr Ridley since it was trading in shillings and pence.

The attraction at the time was assets not revalued since Queen Victoria's reign.

Mr Ridley, who I assume is a private investor, seems to have spotted this one well before Jim Slater.

He deserves congratulations not only for his perseverance here but also at his other great success, Dewhurst plc (DWH), also up from pennies to pounds per share.

Anyone know the guy or what else is in his portfolio ?

[srpactive] 29/3/2016 14:59

jh ridley?

[mw8156] 21/3/2016 10:50

would be an ideal investment were it on AIM and eligible for IHT relief and the only other concern is the possibility of competition from additive manufacturing for their powder castings business; according to the Finns, they have taken over NRPL for their EASAT subsidiary.

[meijiman] 18/3/2016 15:22

Thanks. Well done on that -its always good to hear of a big success story.

[meijiman] 18/3/2016 11:49

Thanks kneecaps. Did you build up by buying in the market or inherit? It's a very big position to hold. Every £1 rise will plenty to your fortune.

[kneecaps2] 18/3/2016 11:30

Yes Meijiman I really think they should be over 25 pounds and yes I have been buying today and Trigger I have never been offered a seat either but I am sure they can manage very well without me and I hope you will be in profit soon!

[trigger blade] 17/3/2016 12:36

I have 100 shares, I'm not expecting to be offered a seat on the board anytime soon. My first aim is to get back to breakeven :-)

[meijiman] 17/3/2016 11:42

Wow that's a big holding indeed. Do you think it worth buying -I assume you do!

[kneecaps2] 17/3/2016 11:20

Good news from Goodwin today with results not as bad as the doom and gloom predicted on here by a couple of muppets.The orders are up and next year forecast to be better so surely the dividend is safe and my purchases the last 3 months will soon look very good indeed and i am proud to own 7% of this very well run company.

[srpactive] 16/2/2016 12:15

Pug

Your last comment regarding extended family just
goes to prove the point to much family involvement
here, okay for a small business but not this size.

It will not help further down the line.

dyor

regards

active

[pugugly] 12/2/2016 12:18

tanners - agreed especially as family controlled and VERY illiquid - Times is very tough and - subject to who is talking - O&G unlikely to bounce - Some (FT today) are even talking the new nomal as between $10 and $30 bbl.


Unless family buy to hold the price then you might well (imo) see your target or below - Although still potentially good dividend cover if half 2 is worse than half 1 then it might be prudent to cut the dividend - unless the extended family need dividend income (imo)

Back on the side.

[srpactive] 12/2/2016 08:49

If they break 1415, they will be soon down to 1000p.

[tanners] 08/2/2016 20:24

ALS.....I've also been watching these for a while as I think it is a quality Company and in time will bounce back.

However I'm not convinced c. £15 is a cheap enough imo as they warned that this years revenue is at much lower margins therefore EPS could drop further and the P/E could be much higher than your guesstimate of 11.

Personally I'm holding off; if they hit £12 I'll be interested, if not and I miss the boat then so be it but I prefer a decent margin of safety in these markets.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 08/2/2016 19:11

Are these now starting to look too cheap? As far as I can see if the second half is roughly the same as the first then they are on a p/e of about 11. That doesn't seem bad to me at a time when their markets are depressed. Net debt is a bit high but the balance sheet is pretty good overall.

Think i'll take a closer look at these.

[dangersimpson2] 22/12/2015 13:49

yes, although gradually adding on down days when I have the cash since it is pretty illiquid.

Given their O&G exposure the current year's results were never going to be great but so little of a company's value is down to the performance in 1 year. If you look at their corporate presentations they go back to 1992 and have consistently earnt high ROIIC due to unique capabilities and patent protection across several industries and energy cycles. I expect them to do the same over the energy cycles of the next 24 years.

[srpactive] 22/12/2015 12:15

ds2

My post 1046 19 November was right then, are you going to
use it as an entry point?

dyor

regards

actice

[apad] 21/12/2015 15:55

you tube jimmy jones timing, Pug.
apad

[pugugly] 21/12/2015 14:15

APAD: Jimmy Jones - Sorry - do not get the reference -Unless you mean have a stop loss in place but then at what %age drop from top - I have lost more in the past by selling on a stop loss and then missing a multibagger turn round. Hindsight is perfect !!!!!!!!!!!!!.


If broker is right a lot more to fall

Goodwin broker views
Date Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes
21 Dec Beaufort Securities Hold 1,699.50 1,263.00 1,263.00 Reiterates

[apad] 21/12/2015 10:35

Also expecting a dividend cut - prudent family ownership rather than borrowing to pay a la Tesco.
This has been my Jimmy Jones lesson of 2015, Pug.
apad

[redartbmud] 21/12/2015 10:25

I expect Gdwn to survive, but the North Sea O&G industry is now toast, which is a close market. No recovery around the world, and getting worse.
There will be a very long period of intensive care, and surely they must cut the dividend, as a best case scenario.

red

[pugugly] 21/12/2015 09:15

Thanks for all the above comments. Just goes to show that TIMING is critical. Had dropped off my radar. on checking database last time I looked was in 2009
File opened 18/12/09 at 975/1000 re Watch 09. and fall from year high of 1293. but year low 708

[belgraviaboy] 18/12/2015 15:46

Very long term holder here.

Cashflow is an issue (and I would imagine down to O&G cos. stretching payment terms), but I don't see a rights issue. Additional banking funding agreed and a huge family shareholding (can't see them wanting to dilute or stump-up cash).

I think there could be tentative signs that the pre-tax is bottoming out. Need to compare these results to second half last year (£6.2m v £6.7m?). Could we see £12m pre-tax next year with no O&G rebound?

I think the forward guidance sounds downbeat because Goodwin expect to earn considerably more than the current run rate, rather than then expecting further deterioration.

The chart looks horrible, however this is an excellent company exposed to a cyclical downturn in one of its markets.

If the price decline continues I will be adding.

[meijiman] 18/12/2015 12:46

From a quick read I would not rush in here.Expect further weakness. Decent company for the long term-but too early.