Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[clive1] 04/9/2013 13:53

Tip not rip, excuse my finger trouble.

[indiestu] 03/9/2013 15:29

Obviously! Who wants to rip a boring old family run engineering firm?

[stevenlondon3] 03/9/2013 08:52

I think he had a twitchy finger.

[indiestu] 03/9/2013 07:51

Clive,Excuse my ignorance. What do you mean by ripped?

[clive1] 03/9/2013 07:47

Nice to see current rise ,I wonder why, has it been tipped somewhere.

[indiestu] 31/8/2013 16:39

No volume. The price will move quick with only a few small trades. If someone's trying to take a sizeable position we're in luck!

[ryandj2222] 30/8/2013 14:15

What happened here?! Nice jump up.

[ryandj2222] 26/7/2013 15:27

Decided to go for a few. It seems like a reliable decent company and good prospects.

[ryandj2222] 26/7/2013 15:07

Thanks David... yes a nice company and possible long termer, but I just always hesitate a bit with bigger spreads! I may still go in for some, just watching for the moment. I liked the results today though.

[davidosh] 26/7/2013 14:42

I do not think 4% is a massive spread if you can get well inside it and of course as a long term buy and hold in a quality company it will be nothing in the grand scheme of things hopefully.

I think more and more investors will choose this type of long termer for their ISAs and when AIM companies can be included next month quite a few steady dividend payers should benefit. TFW, LTHM, RBN, ESR, NICL, GDWN, JHD and BBC (Ben Bailey as was) all great family firms that have served me brilliantly over the years and should be the staple core of many ISAs in my opinion

[ryandj2222] 26/7/2013 13:57

Massive spread of 4% onthis share but otherwise looks very interesting!

[alexisk] 26/7/2013 09:06

results look tremendous, with possibility of a repeat performance in the coming year, according to the statement. share price powering ahead again to new record highs. wish I had the cash to buy some more of these.

[gengulphus] 10/7/2013 04:59

coolen,

A quick check of RNSes ( most recently ) says that the bulk of the Goodwin family holdings are held in two companies called J.M. Securities Ltd and J.M. Securities (No. 3) Ltd, that this has been the case for many years, and that there have been quite a few trades and other transfers between family members amd those companies. In addition, checking those companies out at Companies House says they're resident in Northern Ireland and England respectively.

There is the J.W. Goodwin Children's Trust and an earlier John Goodwin Grandsons Trust. I don't know where those trusts are resident, but they don't seem to have held a very high proportion of the shares. My guess would be that they are/were being used for the usual purposes of trusts in favour of one's children, of passing wealth down to them without giving them uncontrolled access to that wealth too early. Tax avoidance is also usually a factor in such arrangements - I'd have thought they would primarily be aimed at avoiding Inheritance Tax rather than CGT, but obviously people will have tried to keep CGT down when deciding the exact details...

In any case, I haven't heard of any "possibility of nil CGT on recent transactions" and cannot think of any reason why ownership of shares by a Channel Islands trust would be relevant to CGT paid by anyone other than the trust itself and possibly those who have actually traded shares with the trust.

So I'm afraid I basically don't know what you're talking about, but suspect it has got garbled at some point! In any event, I've got as far as I can with the rather limited information you've given so far...

Gengulphus

[coolen] 09/7/2013 23:02

Apologies for not researching further, but did the Goodwin family not transfer a large number of shares to Channel Island trusts several years ago ?

Hence the possibility of nil CGT on recent transactions ?

[gengulphus] 09/7/2013 11:22

Nothing major has been announced since the IMS in March, so I'm expecting something broadly in line with that: turnover up 20%ish, earnings up correspondingly. But some measures to deal with the need for additional capital mentioned there - so I'm not expecting a dividend rise and won't be surprised by a dividend cut, a rights issue or other capital-raising, or both. If there is a capital-raising, I just hope it will be one I can participate fully in rather than a placing or suchlike!

Gengulphus

[phat hair] 09/7/2013 09:42

Final results soon. What do we think?

[illtud] 18/4/2013 11:08

Could be.

illtud

[bench2] 17/4/2013 16:23

Wow 3 Goodwin family directors have sold stock plus a probable family member not on the board . So a placing of 2.5% of the company by insiders at £20 all in new tax year and only 2 weeks before the close season .... a serious CGT bill ... I hope this is not an early warning .

[wjccghcc] 17/4/2013 08:41

Yup. Gave me a chance to add a few at 2100p.

[stevenlondon3] 17/4/2013 08:23

A cross sale of 180,000 at 2000p - nice bit of business for a broker.

[linhur] 10/3/2013 22:37

I expect the debate is about how the money is raised to complete the three new projects. The concert party owns 55% and together with other long term shareholders and ex-employees I would expect that figure to reach 75-80% which would make an equity issue difficult at the present time.They have experience of reducing working capital quite sharply when they paid off the bank overdraft quickly during the financial crisis.I can certainly see dividends being capped.

[cambium] 10/3/2013 17:32

Arbuthnot are staying hush

[stevenlondon3] 10/3/2013 12:17

"This will by definition result in an increased need for capital." With stock markets and their own share price buoyant why risk delaying the capital raising. If the company was going to use debt I think the above statement would have been worded differently.

[gengulphus] 10/3/2013 11:06

As the £18.33m is required over the next three years rather than immediately, some extra debt can be taken on without increasing the debt-to-equity ratio. How much depends a great deal on the timetable on which the extra capital is required and how good the company is at increasing its equity via retained earnings, but a finger-in-the-air guess would extrapolate the £7m increase in equity in the 2012 final results to about £21m over three years, which would allow about £11m extra debt to be taken on at the current debt-to-equity ratio of just over 50%. That would substantially reduce the extra capital that would need to be raised from the £18.33m figure in the recent IMS, to around £7-8m.

And the company has definitely been thinking in terms of increasing its equity by retaining earnings - the 2012 final results said "The decision to only increase the dividend by 10% to £2.31 million will assist the Company in being able to finance three significant projects that will be started subject to approval of the grant applications that we have submitted." Now that the approval is definite, I'd expect them to take further steps along those lines, maybe limiting dividend increases to 5% for a few years. And if I were them, I'd take a look at the possibility of a scrip dividend option - a decent method of raising fairly modest amounts of extra capital over an extended period. It wouldn't bring in all the extra capital required, as total dividends for three years at the current rate are only about £7m and clearly not every shareholder would take up the scrip, but it could make a significant dent in it - maybe enough to make the required debt-to-equity ratio increase to finish the job acceptable.

The net result is that I agree with you that a placing (or other fundraising such as a rights issue) is likely at some point, though quite likely one that is considerably smaller than the £18.33m capital requirement. But there do seem to me to be possibilities of funding it [without an equity issue and]* with at most quite a modest rise in the debt-to-equity ratio.

* edited in for clarity

Gengulphus

[stevenlondon3] 09/3/2013 17:54

I think they have to provide finance to match the govt. grants. At the end of october overdrafts were £14.5m and other loans £13.7m compared to equity of £54.0m. I would have thought they would be reluctant to increase the debt to equity ratio. I think a placing looks likely (excluding preference shares). Who is their broker ie no point in letting the "city fat cats" hoover up cheap stock?