Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[shill10] 22/8/2022 12:55

hi sea, good to have you back - things looking rosier than ever, even with a weak gold price in $- imagine if it went up :)

[russman] 20/8/2022 06:19

Say DRD is the 3rd party processor.
How much is Goldplat worth to them?

[kimboy2] 19/8/2022 17:28

Yes it looks like buy backs. When asked about dividends or buy backs Werner said;

"I have just told you the stock is quite cheap that should probably indicate where we are aiming to."

[sea7] 19/8/2022 17:23

thanks itsyou

[itsyou] 19/8/2022 16:14

New interview :

[sea7] 19/8/2022 14:49

thanks kb

that was my thought - they build the pipe up as far as Goldplat and begin pumping. Whilst Goldplats material is going through, they continue the work to build the rest of the pipe to 5L23.

[kimboy2] 19/8/2022 14:23

Well done sea. Some real information at last.

The third party was always going to be DRDGold. I presume the 5L23TSF is a dump they have acquired and going to process at Ergo. There seems to be a small spur to connect with the pipeline from GDP.

It is DRD's project and presumably they are in charge of the timeline. The timeline given is 2 years for construction and operations for 4 years.

It may be a phased construction which allowed GDP's material to go earlier then the 2 years.

If the processing of GDP's tailings take 4 years then that works out at about 30,000tonnes and 1700 ozs gold a month going down the pipe.

With the various assumptions that might yield about a $0.5m profit to GDP per month.

If the project was phased then GDP's material may go a lot quicker as there will be none coming from the other dump.

This may make sense as it would avoid the mixing of material which was an identified problem with GDP's material. Also presumably a better recovery rate, as well as some cashflow for DRD during construction.

I estimate the pipeline is 10 miles long, though there seems to be a spur to GDP. Presumably only this spur will be attributable to GDP's material.

The cost of an overland pipe of 500mm appears to be about £3-5m.

[lowtrawler] 19/8/2022 12:15

Yes, the timelines are longer than I had originally anticipated. We still don't know what overall net benefit is going to come from processing but it suggests any Special dividend would commence in 2025 and probably cease in 2029.

Given the extended period, I was probably over-ambitious expecting 30% of the benefits to be built into our price when the plan is published. With these timelines, 10% - 20% will be closer to the mark.

[itsyou] 19/8/2022 12:11

Good spot sea7. Also has Goldplat mentioned several time in the Doc

[sea7] 19/8/2022 12:02

thanks LT

Starts to give some clarity over the project timelines that has been in the works for years, so far.

[lowtrawler] 19/8/2022 11:48

Good find sea7.

Some interesting details -

The project will require 10 onsite employees
The end to end project is 10 years being 2 years construction; 4 years life of operation; 2 years ramp down, and; 2 years site rehabilitation.

Assuming it gets the go-ahead by the end of this year, it suggests the recovery operation will only commence in 2025 and largely complete by the end of 2028 although costs and activity will continue until 2032.

[sea7] 19/8/2022 11:31

Whilst I have not posted here for ages...

please note the above that is dated april 2022. It is for a pipeline for tailings dump 5L23 which is on the other side of the road from Goldplat - if my map reading is correct.. (modder b road)

you will note that on page 14, the proposed pipeline route has a spur that comes directly from goldplats facility.

DRD Gold will be processing 5L23 and looks like they will be processing goldplats if this is correct.

[spaceparallax] 19/8/2022 10:43

on current performance, a 12p buyout doesn't make sense. I would expect not less than 40p; therefore it's not likely to happen just yet. Happy to sit tight and see the share price rise under pressure from the results

[kimboy2] 19/8/2022 09:38

12p wouldn't do it for me nor, more importantly, I suspect for Martin Ooi.

The elephant in the room here is the TSF. The application for the pipeline was put in during October 2021 with a 1 year expected timeline.

Not long to wait. My average price here is 4p and I am expecting 20p.

[lowtrawler] 18/8/2022 17:06

Although GDP say there has been no material change to the JORC resource, we know that the TSF has grown and that metals become more recoverable over time. I believe the net proceeds are likely to surprise to the upside. Presumably, it will also give GDP an opportunity to process their new TSF every few years and so create a new regular income stream.

[lowtrawler] 18/8/2022 16:59

NTV, I don't believe they had any serious plans for the TSF until recently. They now appear to have a local processor lined up to do the work and are in the final stretch for a pipeline to their premises. All indications are they will be ready to proceed in the next 6 months.

We need to see a full planning document from GDP relating to the TSF: How long it will take to fully process; expected recover rates; costs of processing; any profit share with the processor; decommissioning costs at end etc.

We are all guessing what the bottom line impact will be but many of the variables are highly technical and impossible for investors to calculate accurately. Naturally, we will all be expecting the net proceeds to be returned by way of special dividend.

Once the planning document is published, I expect a huge spike in the share price. I expect they already have the document written and are just waiting to have all the agreements signed off. My guess is we will get a full plan this year but it may slip into Q1 2023.

[russman] 18/8/2022 16:20

Changing the reporting currency to USD may provide more clarity.

[ntv] 18/8/2022 07:04

Looking like it now Russman
I am going to wait till i see some more accounts to see how good the cash generation really is
I feel TSF is still a distant proposition that seems to affect most companies
The carrot keeps dangling just out of reach

[russman] 17/8/2022 18:59

GDP is now a cash cow.
GDP needs to be clearer on future dividend / buyback policy.
Where is the new Chairman.
TSF sucking in further investment with slipping horizon.

[dinky00] 17/8/2022 15:07

They need to get on with the MBO. 12p would do it

[lowtrawler] 17/8/2022 14:21

Today's trading volumes tell us how far of the radar we are. So far, only about £25k of shares traded today. If a buyer appears wanting even modest volume, there could be a sharp price impact.

[spaceparallax] 17/8/2022 10:22

seriously impressive figures

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 17/8/2022 09:37

Difficult to argue with that reasoning.

[lowtrawler] 17/8/2022 09:15

There are 2 valuation drivers here: Trading and TSF.

Based on trading, we look significantly undervalued with a PER of under 3 and strong growth / cash generation. If the share price adjusts to reflect our current trading performance as a norm, we will probably head to around 12p.

The TSF appears to be advancing well but remains opaque as to shareholder value. We have shared our views and consensus is at least 10p per share value will be released from processing the TSF. It could be much more. If GDP finalise all the agreements and produce a detailed plan, many of those benefits will become reflected in the price. If GDP confirm 10p as ultimate shareholder value, at least 3p will be immediately reflected. I expect this clarity to arise over the next 6 months.

IMV, it creates a realistic price target of 15p within 6 months and it could be more depending on detailed TSF plans.

[csmwssk12hu] 17/8/2022 08:56

Not in here but a good update gla