Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[michaelfenton] 16/6/2022 08:52

Crikey there are some sellers?

[michaelfenton] 16/6/2022 08:32

Picking up a bit now.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 16/6/2022 08:28

Not really, this news was expected.

[michaelfenton] 16/6/2022 08:23

Not much action this morning. Surprising?

[michaelfenton] 16/6/2022 08:08

Thanks Lowtrawler - I always listen to your calculations as you are generally better at it than me.

[lowtrawler] 16/6/2022 08:02

shill, there are bound to be a wide range of views on how much value should be in the share price for this. I tend to be quite cautious. Taking our 7p - 8p trading range from last year and adding on a value for the TSF gives me a target price. I think both elements of my target are undervalued but realistic in the current market.

[shill10] 16/6/2022 07:54

My view is more like 6-8p personally at this stage. They have numbers broadly agreed with 3rd party otherwise would not be incurring costs of licence/work hours on this. Ditto for pipe licence, the SA authorities will have their eyes on the extra taxes generated, so not a lot that can go wrong now we have reached this stage. Plus warner has been super cautious since he took over, never disappointing the market unlike GKG....he's slowly rebuilding trust and that will be reflected in the (currently dpressed0 share price.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 16/6/2022 07:37

Not sure what you mean. It was an expected positive, not an unexpected one - see recent RNSs.

[lowtrawler] 16/6/2022 07:36

The question I've been asking myself is what value I would currently place on the TSF as a shareholder.Based on recent discussions, I believe there is general consensus successful exploitation of the TSF will provide 10p or more of attributable after tax profit, it could be much higher. Whether this is delivered depends on licences being granted and commercial agreements being put in place. It seems to me that licenses are more likely than not to be granted. After all, the TSF has to be processed some how and retaining the TSF is likely to have more environmental concerns than processing it. I suspect GDP already have a *heads of agreement" in place on the commercial side or else why pursue the pipeline in the first place. With these thoughts in mind, I think exploitation is very likely to proceed in 2023. Personally, I would be happy to reflect 4p for the TSF in our current SP

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 16/6/2022 07:34

Never come across that meaning before. I can stop picturing something that looks like a Picasso!

[michaelfenton] 16/6/2022 07:18

Wow this RNS is game changing and a lot better than pleased to announce. Terrific news.

[lowtrawler] 16/6/2022 07:13

ACT, "the process of removing something, especially water from a river or other source."First step towards monetising the TSF.

[shill10] 16/6/2022 07:09

water licence in and pipe approval by the end of the year for TSF - the market should wake up soon to this, as above adds 10p+ to the share price.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 16/6/2022 07:08

Abstraction?

[lowtrawler] 15/6/2022 10:59

If you remove the shares held by Martin, institutions and long-term holders, there are probably less than 60m GDP shares open to being traded. Hence, someone picking up 3m will have removed many weak holders. With the buy-backs doing the same, there can't be many weak holders left. I think the share price will need to move onto 12p to attract any significant selling volume.

[lowtrawler] 15/6/2022 10:39

ds2, if you look at trades over recent weeks, someone is posting through regular 5k, 10k and 20k trades. IMV, it is a single buyer accumulating in small blocks. They have probably acquired over 3m shares in the last month.

[dangersimpson2] 15/6/2022 10:14

Some reasonable volume so far today (at least compared to the usual volume) and almost all on the buy side (at least on the trades currently published). If we can break 10p sometime soon then we should see even more volume buying the breakout.

[kimboy2] 14/6/2022 10:17

The only real unknowns on the TSF (apart from when) are the cost and the deal with the processor.

I have tended to assume about $800/oz cost though the figure that was put to me was about $500/oz, though this was some time ago. I know that some of these tailings companies have incredibly low costs.

As for the processor cost my view would be that GDP is in effect a supplier of material, rather than a joint venturist. GDP aim for a 20% operating profit of revenue. I would expect the processor to get less than this.

That will depend on the alternatives which GDP have, which no doubt their potential partners will be aware of, and which GDP keep emphasising they have.

[lowtrawler] 14/6/2022 10:14

I'm expecting gold to lift-off in the next few weeks as crypto / markets tumble. It should provide focus to GDP and the swarm may appear once more. As far as I can see, 15p would still be a bargain price for GDP and so it won't surprise me if we get to that level this year.

[dangersimpson2] 14/6/2022 10:11

Yes, 50% far exceeds my expectation from what we know from the original studies done a few years ago - hat tip to Kimboy who has always had more faith in recoverability than me! - If they get above 50% this makes the economics of the TSF reprocessing very much higher than I was assuming and is great news :-)

[shill10] 14/6/2022 10:00

and 50% recovery is great news, if it can be even higher then that is the cherry on top

[shill10] 14/6/2022 06:52

yes Lowtrawler, Sea, Kimboy and I have said similar for years....I would add that resource is likely c 100k oz now due to expansion of tailings since 2016, all looking promising.

[lowtrawler] 13/6/2022 16:53

It all looks promising for the TSF. With JORC resource of 82k ounces and a 50% recovery rate, we have 40k ounces at $1800 = $76m less capex, processing and partnership costs. I can't see processing being more than $500 an ounce, Capex is likely less than $1m and so there is potentially $50m gross profit to share between our processing partner, minority interests and ourselves. Not to mention the non Gold resources which will also be recovered. Even on a 50:50 basis, it's close to £15m after tax. I expect them to negotiate a better than 50:50 deal so probably 10p or more of attributable profit per share.

[dangersimpson2] 13/6/2022 12:55

I think the third-party deal needs the pipeline to be signed off first. They initially were going for a 2-3yr dewatering process to make trucking economic. Now it appears they have a potential deal with someone close enough that building a pipeline is the better option. This is great since it accelerates the payback plus makes hydraulic mining the way to go - it is a lot easier to simply spray a large hose at the resource than have to use excavators. But until they have the permit for the pipeline they won't be able to agree to terms.