Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Goals Soccer Centres Plc LSE:GOAL London Ordinary Share GB00B0486M37 ORD 0.25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 27.20p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 01:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Travel & Leisure 33.1 8.2 9.3 2.9 20

Goals Soccer Centres Share Discussion Threads

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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
10/7/2008
08:56
reads well.
cupasoup2006
10/7/2008
08:53
Recent reaearch note from Panmure Gordon below (Dated May 2008), talk about a GREAT story!!! GOALS SOCCER CENTRES Strong growth prospects BUY PANMURE GORDON (UK) LIMITED Goals Soccer Centres has performed well since its flotation on AIM in 2004, generating strong LFL sales growth. A clear strategy and resilience during previous economic downturns should help the company continue to grow over the medium term. We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 350p. ! Strong growth. Following average LFL sales growth of 8% over the past four years, we believe our forecast of annual LFL sales growth of 5% going forward is achievable in a defensive market with only one major competitor. We believe that organic expansion should add a further 17–22% to the top line per annum over the next three years, while operational gearing should ensure margin expansion. ! Good prospects. We believe that the market for 5-a-side football should be recession resilient. This is due mainly to the low spend per head and the fact that it is a team sport. In addition, Goals has the industry’s most experienced management team and consistent business model. ! Initiating coverage with a Buy recommendation. Goals is trading at a substantial premium to its main competitor, Powerleague. However, its operating ratios and returns are far superior and we believe Goals is better placed to grasp the market opportunity. Market growth, greater customer penetration, strong EPS growth and a rising return on capital should drive further share price outperformance. Price 289p Price Target 350p Market Cap £121m INVESTMENT CASE Strong, consistent performance illustrates the substantial progress Goals Soccer Centres has made since flotation. We expect EPS growth of 120.3% over the next three years, believing the company will leverage its position as the UK’s leader in 5-a-side football centres. ! Strong market position. Goals is a clear leader in the 5-a-side football centres market. It has quality sites in a defensive market, with only one major competitor. ! Recession resilience. We believe that 5-a-side football should be relatively unaffected in a consumer downturn, because of the low spend per head and that – as a team sport – there is peer pressure to participate. These factors should support Goals and help to combat the indirect competition posed by other leisure activities (eg 11-a-side football), health clubs and gyms. ! The management team has solid experience, having been in the business since 5-a-side football progressed from being played in community sports halls. Managing director Keith Rogers co-founded Anchor International, which opened the first 5-a-side football centre in 1987. He oversaw the growth to 11 centres, before selling the company to 3i. Together with finance director Bill Gow, he completed the MBI of Goals in 2000 and its flotation in 2004. ! International opportunities. Now embedded in the UK and with a good pipeline, the company is looking at opportunities in the US and South Africa. Potential risks are minimised as South Africa would be a master franchise requiring no capital commitment from Goals. The US opportunity would be a JV (60% Goals, 40% local partner) and one trial site is likely to be developed first. ! Quality of sites. This is indicated by the income generation and profitability of the units, which we believe is largely determined by management as well as the site’s size, location and standards. Goals has a consistent and robust business model. It aims to spend £2.1m building each new site and an average of £30k on pitch maintenance per unit per annum. Goals spends £20k to update a pitch surface, while Powerleague (its main competitor) spends £15k. Finally, Goals spends an average of £20k per unit on repairs and renewals each year; Powerleague spends £14.5k. Given the superior profitability, overall Goals appears to have sites of a higher quality than Powerleague. Goals is achieving higher returns from its capital expenditure, as evidenced by its ROIC of 12.1% versus Powerleague’s 10.4%. ! Pipeline. Goals’ pipeline is a robust 40 sites, compared with the 28 sites currently in operation. It believes that there is scope for 150–200 football centres in the UK, of which it expects to take half. ! Valuation. We forecast annual LFL sales growth of 5% going forward and consistent organic growth. This leads to EPS growth of 120.3% between 2007A and 2010E. Supported by a DCF valuation of 364p, we initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and a 350p target price. CATALYSTS ! Continued robust sales performance. ! Overseas expansion in the medium term. ! Potential for upgrades after September’s interim results. Recession resilience Experienced management team Quality of sites Goals Soccer Centres • Investment Case • Catalysts • Risks 5 June 2008 3 RISKS Goals Soccer Centres faces minimal regulatory risk. This, as well as strong demand, should enable the company to grow even in a consumer downturn in our opinion. We believe there is limited supply risk, as this is a niche industry with two dominant operators. CONSUMER DOWNTURN There is a risk of a further consumer downturn. If this occurs, UK households could be prone to trading down and reducing discretionary expenditure. This may be expected to have a negative impact on Goals, but we doubt the company would be as affected as the rest of the consumer sector. Management confirmed that the industry was not adversely impacted during the last recession, but this is only anecdotal evidence, and Goals claims that the low spend per head (£5.50) and the fact that it is a team sport and an habitual activity make it resilient. COMPETITION Goals competes with other 5-a-side football centres and leagues such as Powerleague (with 43 centres compared to Goals’ 28), the privately owned Sports and Leisure Group (seven centres), as well as leagues in non 5-a-side football centres (eg sports halls). However, we believe Goals’ superior product should allow it to remain a winner. Goals competes with other sports and leisure activities (eg 11-a-side football), leisure centres and gyms. However, 5-a-side is the fastest growing form of football according to the FA (source Goals/BRMB on behalf of the FA) and people can visit gyms and play 5-a-side football also. In fact, participating in one sport/fitness activity could even encourage people to participate in several. PIPELINE It is not always straightforward to maintain a robust site pipeline due to the physical nature of the sites. Gaining planning permission can be a lengthy process, and the sites take five months to build. Goals has a specific business model and the types of sites it is looking for may be less easy to find. The centres need to pay back within four years and achieve average annual EBITDA of £500k (the initial capital outlay averages £2.1m), which requires 225 games to be played a week. To generate this level of activity, the centres must: 1) have at least ten pitches; and 2) be within a 12–15-minute drive of a town/city with a population of 150,000+. The sites require space for car parking, although school sites often benefit from the fact that parking exists already. Goals has 40 sites in its pipeline at various stages, so, if six sites were opened each year, it would have 6–7 years of openings. Therefore, although its criteria may be difficult to meet, it appears as though it can deliver on the organic growth promised. Goals believes that there are 150–200 sites available for development in the UK, of which it hopes to eventually have 50%. WEATHER As all sites are outdoors, there is a risk that business could be badly affected by poor weather. Teams could switch to centres with indoor pitches or not play at all. However, teams tend to be locked in to a league or a block booking. According to management, history shows that players are rarely deterred by bad weather. Also, indoor sites often become uncomfortably hot in the summer unless they have air conditioning. 5-a-side is the fastest growing form of football according to the FA Robust business model Bad weather is not a deterrent to play Goals Soccer Centres • Investment Case • Catalysts • Risks 5 June 2008 4 OUR CENTRAL CASE Goals Soccer Centres is a profitable business that we believe should continue to generate strong returns and growth over the long term. Expansion should provide a robust platform to extend its competitive advantage and market share. PORTFOLIO Goals has 28 high-quality units, with an average of 11 pitches – ranging from eight to 18 – using the latest pitch surfaces. They are used mainly for 5-a-side football, but there are 7-a-side football pitches too. The sites are located around the country from Glasgow to Plymouth, Bristol to Dartford. The company has been listed on AIM since 2004, and management has solid industry experience. The company’s strategy is clear, focusing on the ‘Next Generation’ concept, which includes the following: ! Unrivalled locations; ! Unmatched quality and facilities; ! Exceptional service; ! All sites to be FA accredited; ! Using the latest technology; and ! Being a strong, exciting brand to reflect the passion of football. Achieving these objectives should ensure customer satisfaction and its becoming the operator of choice. ECONOMIC RATIONALE On average, Goals’ leasehold sites pay back within 4–5 years. There is only one freehold site, and it is highly unlikely that any new sites will be freehold. MARKET SUPPLY We believe that supply in the 5-a-side football market is relatively undeveloped, with high barriers to entry. There are two main areas of supply: 1) purpose-built 5-a-side football centres. Goals’ main competitor is Powerleague, which has 43 centres and is also quoted on AIM. The only other larger multiple operator is Sports and Leisure Group, a private company with seven sites; and 2) leisure centres and individual events companies organising 5-a-side football leagues in non-purpose-built sites such as sports halls. Goals also faces competition from non 5-a-side football competitors. In a tough economic environment, consumers could choose to participate in other activities, including 11-a-side football, or attend gyms/health clubs. MARKET DEMAND 5-a-side has strong competitive advantage over other fitness activities 5-a-side is the fastest growing type of football (source Goals/BRMB on behalf of the FA) and is outperforming 11-a-side. There is demand from people who want to play regularly for fun, without the commitment or skill required for the full version of the game. Also, 5-a-side can be organised more easily than 11-aside, for which players generally need to belong to a club. Furthermore, 11-a-side is played more often at the weekends and requires greater time commitment than 5-a-side (90 versus 40 minutes), which can be played more easily during the week – especially when family commitments might take priority at the weekend. Clear, focused strategy Superior returns Undeveloped market Goals Soccer Centres • Our Central Case 5 June 2008 6 Visiting gyms and health clubs can be a more solitary, less sociable activity. 5-aside football attracts people who want to play more from a social point of view with friends/colleagues/team-mates as well as those who want to keep fit. There are some people who are averse to joining gyms/health clubs and so may prefer this type of activity. Gyms and health clubs normally require fixed-term contracts, upfront membership fees and monthly subscriptions. However, in 5-a-side football, players in a league or block-booked session are generally committed to a maximum of three months. They can also play on a casual basis. This may encourage people to choose this form of exercise over the gym, especially if they are concerned about the economic climate and tightening household budgets. With 5-a-side football centre games, players pay for a session only if they attend. A gym monthly subscription of £50 is more expensive than playing 5-a-side football once a week. It may be cheaper per session if someone goes several times a week, but in total on a monthly basis it can be more expensive. Playing 5- a-side football may be viewed as better value. Finally, as the business models for 11-a-side football or health clubs are very different from that for 5-a-side football, they may not be competing for the same business. Participating in other sports/fitness activities could encourage people to play 5-a-side football as well. Purpose-built versus non-purpose-built 5-a-side facilities Purpose-built football centres are much more suitable for playing 5-a-side and clearly superior to playing on non-purpose-built pitches in leisure centres. For instance, there are separate pitches as opposed to sections of sports halls, so it is easier to play. All of Goals’ football centres are affiliated to the FA. This is not always the case with non-purpose-built centres, so Goals is more likely to be the operator of choice in our view. As purpose-built football centres become more widespread, it is likely to become more of the norm to use them as opposed to non-purpose-built pitches. Goals’ 5-a-side versus other purpose-built 5-a-side football centres People who play in Goals’ football centres are predominantly: 1) males aged 17– 40; and 2) the under 16s during the school holidays and at children’s parties. This is likely to be the same as at Powerleague. 5-a-side football – an alternative to other sports and fitness activities Goals has well-maintained units and the policy is to refurbish them every seven years, whereas Powerleague refurbishes every ten years. Goals’ centres are built to create a suitable environment for customers, including children and women. There are lounges with plasma screens and most have children’s party rooms. Goals and Powerleague have different business models. Goals has a set criteria for sites and plans to open sites within a 12–15-minute drive of towns/cities with a population of at least 150,000. Powerleague appears to be more flexible on location; however, given its inferior returns, we do not regard this as a positive. Goals tends to invest more in the initial build and general upkeep. It spends on average £2.1m on new sites, £20k per pitch when they are replaced every seven years, and £20k on repairs and maintenance per annum. Powerleague’s figures are £1.6m, £15k and £14.5k, respectively. Goals’ level of investment is likely to be a major factor behind its superior profits. RESILIENCE TO DOWNTURN We believe that Goals should prove to be resilient in a downturn/recession. We forecast LFL sales growth of 5% per annum: volume 1.5–2%-points and price 3–3.5%-points. We do not expect a weakening of booking levels, for the following reasons: ! The average spend per head per game (pitch only) is a low £5.50, and this is usually a weekly spend. We believe this is unlikely to impact household disposable income hugely compared to health club subscriptions, for example. Participation is therefore likely to be considered affordable, making cash flow relatively predictable. ! There is peer pressure to play football, as in all team sports. Players are committed because they do not want to let their team-mates down by dropping out, as the rest of the team might not be able to play if they do not find replacements. ! Playing 5-a-side football in a downturn could be a cheaper social event than visiting the pub – playing 5-a-side football and having a drink afterwards in the centre could be cheaper than a whole night out drinking in a pub with friends. SUPPLY Pipeline Goals’ football centres are typically good-quality sites on land owned by schools or local authorities, and they are sometimes on restricted sites such as Greenbelt or Metro land. The points to consider here are: ! Local authority or school sites are normally cheaper than commercial sites. For instance, the five JJB Soccer Dome sites acquired by Powerleague cost £17.4m, or an average of £3.48m. The average build cost is lower for both Goals (£2.1m) and Powerleague (£1.6m), and the majority are likely to be non-commercial sites. Note that outdoor sites are normally cheaper than indoor sites. ! Goals’ average rent and rates are £50k and £20k per unit per annum, respectively. Compare this to Powerleague’s £30k and £20k before the Soccerdome acquisition and £66k and £38k after it. ! Of Goals’ sites, going forward, the company believes that 50% are likely to be in schools, 25% on local authority land, and 25% private. Although schools and local authority locations can be less expensive than commercial land, acquiring them can take longer. It can take up to two years to receive planning permission and then there is the approximate 5-month build time. Goals, however, has a strong site pipeline (40 units), and so is well placed for strong organic growth over the next three years in our view. Well-maintained units Relative immunity to downturn Goals Soccer Centres • Our Central Case 5 June 2008 8 PRICING According to management, prices have increased just ahead of inflation over the past few years. Overall, in 2007A football represented 75% of a football centre’s income, the bar 18% and other 7%. All areas saw YOY growth. Goals’ average spend per head per game is £5.50, while Powerleague’s is £5.00. However, the higher price does not appear to deter customers. REGULATION There is low regulatory risk. However, these points are worth considering: Local authorities and schools support activities promoting fitness and combating obesity. Therefore, businesses linked to such areas should be looked upon more favourably. We believe Goals is the highest-quality operator in terms of sites, management and reputation. Schools, for example, do not make their decisions for commercial reasons, but because they want a sports centre – with a solid reputation – on their land. The smoking ban has had a limited impact on Goals, while Powerleague states the opposite. Powerleague saw LFL non-pitch sales decline by 8% in H1 (July– December 2007) and said that much of this was a result of the smoking ban. Goals does not split out non-pitch sales, but its full-year LFL sales uplift for 2007 was 7% compared to Powerleague’s H1 2008 figure of 2%. IMPROVING QUALITY AND PACE OF EARNINGS Goals plans to open six sites in each of 2008 and 2009, and seven in 2010. This is supported by its pipeline and compares with five openings in 2006 and four in 2007. Achieving this target should enhance sales and earnings substantially given the 4–5-year payback and high operational gearing. Goals continues to launch initiatives to fill spare capacity during less busy times, including coaching sessions, attracting shift workers who do not work during the day, and using the pitches for other activities such as rugby. Goals is continually developing its information systems. This helps it to manage enquiries, reservations, member details and the plasma screens showing, for example, league game scores. ACCOUNTABILITY Strong management Chief executive Keith Rogers was there at the birth of the industry. In 1987 he jointly established Anchor International, which operated 5-a-side football centres. He sold it to private equity group 3i 12 years later. 3i also acquired a rival operation, Powerplay; the two were merged to form Powerleague, which is now Goals’ main competitor. Mr Rogers left to lead a management buy-in at a much smaller business. With financial backing, he acquired the company that would form Goals, repeated his success and floated it on AIM in December 2004. That was six months before Powerleague was floated. We believe Goals’ management is robust, highly experienced, and has the drive, skill and knowledge to take the business forward to become a global brand and the operator of choice. KPIs The KPIs are: 1) the number of games played; 2) secondary sales; and 3) the quality of the facilities and service. As part of this, the number of games each site needs to have each week to achieve a 4–5-year payback is analysed. Goals’ target is 225, but it does not announce how it is doing on this metric. Solid site pipeline Promoting health and fitness Limited impact of the smoking ban Opportunities to create value Goals Soccer Centres • Analysis of Forecasts 5 June 2008 9 ANALYSIS OF FORECASTS Goals has a strong organic growth programme and has consistently grown LFL sales and margins. LFL sales growth ranged from 7% to 9% between 2004 and 2007; we forecast 5% per annum for the next three years. KEY REVENUE DRIVERS ! Pitch occupancy. Pitch sales make up 75% of revenues. Management understands that it is important to drive high levels of pitch occupancy during peak times and is considering methods to drive off-peak occupancy too, eg children’s coaching, targeting shift workers during the day, and other activities. ! LFL sales. We forecast annual LFL sales growth of 5% for the next three years. Growth ranged from 7% to 9% between 2004 and 2007. Our 5% forecast might prove conservative, but we feel that it is prudent to assume a lower figure given the current economic climate. Of the 5%, we expect 3–3.5%-points to relate to price and 1.5–2%-points to volume. ! Pricing. Increases occur after the summer holidays (coinciding with the new football season) and management is confident that any price increases should not impact volume as they are built in to customers’ expectations. Management believes that it has strong brand loyalty, particularly in areas where it is well established, such as Birmingham. We believe this strong brand loyalty and LFL sales growth is underpinned by management’s focus on investment in its facilities, service and location. Source Company, Panmure Gordon ! Organic growth. We forecast six new units in each of 2008 and 2009, and seven in 2010. ! Overseas expansion. Goals is looking to expand in the US and South Africa. This is not included in our forecasts. REVENUES AND YEAR-END UNITS MARGINS Due to the operational gearing effect of organic growth on a relatively fixed cost base, we expect margins to improve from 42% in 2007A to 44% in 2008E, 44.7% in 2009E and 46.0% in 2010E. Wages. Management operates very high controls over these costs, with each department in each branch having a weekly budget that can be exceeded only with authorisation. All pay rates are controlled by head office. Rent. The majority of sites are leasehold and the terms of the leases are reviewed in line with RPI every five years. Central costs. These are c£1.5m per annum and we forecast them to increase by 5% each year. There are also additional costs of £100k that are likely to be required for new sites each year. This should cover the costs for additional regional managers and administration. PROFITABILITY AND DIVIDEND We forecast EPS to rise from 11.2p in 2007A to 14.9p in 2008E, growing overall by 120.3% from 2007A to 2010E. The policy is to grow dividends in line with EPS. We believe that the dividend cover of 7.8x in 2007A is likely to be maintained. CASH FLOW Strong organic growth can be self-financed with robust profits combined with focused capital expenditure. This means that we expect net debt to rise from £33.8m in 2008E to £38.3m in 2010E. Capital expenditure is approximately £2.1m per new site, which we forecast to rise by 2% annually. An average of £30k per unit is spent on maintenance each year, which we also expect to rise by 5% annually. We have also allowed £200k per annum for systems development. BALANCE SHEET The company has a revolving credit facility of £40m, which should enable it to continue its current planned expansion. With Goals being almost self-financing, we believe it has sufficient financial headroom to support planned expansion. VALUATION Goals operates in a defensive market that should prove robust in a consumer downturn. Its operating ratios are superior to Powerleague’s because of better quality sites; this leads us to believe that Goals has a strong competitive position that justifies its premium rating. Our Buy recommendation assumes that this rating at least holds over the medium term. P/E Our 350p target price equates to a 2008E P/E of 20.1x and EV/EBITDA of 12.2x. We believe the premium to Powerleague is justified for the following reasons: ! Forecast earnings growth of 120.3% over the next three years; ! A defensive market and only one major competitor; ! Superior product generating higher margins and returns; ! Defensive qualities; and ! A strong organic pipeline. FREE CASH FLOW We forecast that the free cash flow yield after maintenance capital increases from 4.8% in 2007A to 11.3% in 2010E. This is driven mainly by our expectation of strong sales growth and continual profitability. DCF Our 350p price target is supported by our DCF valuation of 364p, which is based on a WACC of 7.4% and terminal growth of 1.0%. Sensitivity analysis Terminal growth 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 7.0% 342 397 473 WACC 7.4% 316 364 430 8.0% 278 315 366 8.5% 252 284 325 Source Panmure Gordon PEER GROUP VALUATION We are Buyers of Goals and prefer it to Powerleague. Goals has clear strategy, and good quality sites, including location, size and investment. The key points are: ! We forecast 2008E average sales per unit of £0.9m for Goals and £0.7m for Powerleague. We forecast EBITDA per unit of £0.47m and £0.25m, respectively. ! Goals’ average sales per pitch are superior to Powerleague’s; for 2008E we forecast £81k and £63k, respectively. Premium valuation High growth Goals Soccer Centres • Valuation 5 June 2008 13 ! Goals’ LFL performance has overtaken that of Powerleague, and we expect this to continue. ! Goals’ P/E of 20.1x (for 2008E) is forecast to reduce to 12.1x (for 2010E), while Powerleague’s moves from 16.5x to 11.2x in the same period. In our opinion, this illustrates Goals’ longer-term value. The same trend is seen with EV/EBITDA. This, combined with the points discussed earlier, makes Goals Soccer Centres a more attractive investment in our opinion. CONCLUSION Taking a long-term view, we initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and a 350p target price. Due to Goals’ long-term growth prospects and potential for forecast upgrades, we expect the shares to at least hold their rating over the medium term, during which time the company should generate significant growth. Valuations and returns compared 2008E 2009E 2010E EBITDA (m) Goals 13.0 16.4 20.6 Powerleague 9.6 12.1 13.2 EPS (p) Goals 14.9 19.3 24.8 Powerleague 4.1 5.3 6.1 EV/ EBITDA (x) Goals 12.2 9.8 8.0 Powerleague 9.7 7.4 6.7 EV/ EBITDAR (x) Goals 12.5 10.3 8.6 Powerleague 10.4 8.6 8.0 P/E (x) Goals 20.1 15.5 12.1 Powerleague 16.5 12.9 11.2 Dividend yield (%) Goals (%) 0.7 0.9 1.1 Powerleague (%) 1.8 2.0 2.2 Sales per unit (£000) Goals 909 932 955 Powerleague 707 757 764 EBITDA per unit (£000) Goals 465 483 508 Powerleague 250 276 281 EBITDA margin (%) Goals (%) 51.2 51.9 53.1 Powerleague (%) 35.4 36.4 36.8 EBIT margin (%) Goals (%) 44.0 44.7 46.0 Powerleague (%) 25.4 26.4 26.8 ROIC (%) Goals (%) 13.0 13.6 14.5 Powerleague (%) 9.0 9.6 10.2 Gearing (%) Goals (%) 111.6 91.7 77.7 Powerleague (%) 170.2 135.5 115.8 Fixed charge cover (cash) (x) Goals 5 5 5 Powerleague 3 3 3 Source Panmure Gordon Goals Soccer Centres • The Numbers 5 June 2008 15
digitalinvestor
10/7/2008
08:23
Weather is not a factor here. So long as centres are open the lads will play rain or shine. This is all the year round outdoor sport, much of it in competitive leagues.
free willy 2
10/7/2008
01:09
The weather can't be helping them - pitches are outdoors, aren't they ?
lobby ludd
09/7/2008
21:55
On 13 March Powerleague Chairman & CEO owned 35.5% of Powerleague. On 14 March they sold 29% to Patron Capital at 97.5p per share raising about £18m for the two individuals concerned and leaving them with 6.5%. That price was never offerred to other Powerleague shareholders. Since then, for whatever reason, their share price has almost halved to 50p. The Chairman & CEO have acquired just over one million shares in the last few days at a cost of under £600,000, either because they think the shares are cheap, or out of embarrassment. Whilst I agree that top management expending cash on their own company's shares is a generally a good thing, I think a more in depth analysis is required on some occasions. I believe Powerleague and Goals are in the same market space but the companies are very different.
free willy 2
09/7/2008
17:56
If you look at powerleague and their share price it has fallen. Their top man bought shares the other day to give onfidence to investors. Always a good sign
shazzybabes1
09/7/2008
17:46
As you know a friend of mine works for a goals center and he was informed that as per statement that trading was going well . The only issue he feels is the roll out of new centres as they said there would be 6 but 3 of them this year were pro 5 takeovers so maybe thats why its been negative. My mate says that the guys who run these are top blokes and have their hand on the pulse constantly so hopefully they are wondering why the price is down. He said his center is still very busy and has seen no evidence of a slowdown . There is always a reason for a price drop but imho these will go back up in the next few months as the results get nearer. Dont have news on the bank facility as that would be a private matter for the company but it strikes me that cash flow is not a problem.
shazzybabes1
09/7/2008
10:54
Hi guys, been off the board for a while but have been watching these. I cannot believe that they are where they are, but such is life. One question springs to mind reading the above articles: 1- The five year committed bank facility, what else do we know about this? When is repayment, at what cost of borrowing etc. A point to note about the pension funds buying in, I am sure that they have a lot of other bargains out there that they are trying to pick up, i.e. FTSE 100 shares. So any info on this bank facility would be wonderful. Sam
sclothier
08/7/2008
22:38
This stock has been seriously oversold. Management statement last week was very straight forward confirming demand for the product is unchanged and continued earnings growth with finance in place to open at least six new centres each year from 2008 onwards. I can only surmise that the current stock market for AIM shares is so negative and illiquid that even the brightest prospects are finding it hard to shine.
free willy 2
08/7/2008
08:08
The Directors put out a statement last week - it looks as though they may be in a 'closed' period and not allowed to buy/sell any shares till results are out. However, statement is very bullish and puts paid to negative comments by analyst Statement: across the UK, announces that trading for the half year ended 30 June 2008 ended in line with management's expectations. The directors are pleased with the progress that the Company is making and are confident of delivering another excellent result in the current year. We have not seen any indication of softening demand for our "next generation" offering, and we believe that our low admission price and the high loyalty associated with team sports indicates our business is resilient to any wider consumer spending downturn. Our rollout programme continues to plan with three centres added in the half year ended 30 June 2008 and a further three under construction and on schedule to open during the second half of 2008. Our pipeline of sites continues to strengthen and the Board remains confident that a minimum of six centres will be added during 2009. The Company has a five year committed bank facility in place the majority of which is fixed though our hedging policy. Together with internally generated cash, this facility will fully fund the rollout of at least six centres each year. We will be announcing our interim results for the six month period ended 30 June 2008 on 1 September 2008.
cupasoup2006
07/7/2008
17:35
Their will be 6 sites opening this year which includes the 1s they took over and see no reason why they will not gain the same next year . IMHO these are well oversold
shazzybabes1
07/7/2008
17:33
I am absolutely amazed at the drop and amazed the directors have not been buying to give investors a lift. How far can it drop as t seems although consolidating this year the price keeps falling . The sell note from the brokers wont help but i know that my local centre it is difficult to get a 7 a side pitch some nights. Think the directors need to be making a statement on the drop and their reasons.
shazzybabes1
07/7/2008
16:05
Scrutineer: Taking eyes off the ball? Hamish Rutherford 755 words 4 July 2008 The Scotsman 34 English (c) 2008 COULD Scotland's much-vaunted five-a-side football sector be losing its shine? Largely coincidentally, the country is home to the two largest quoted players in the sector, Goals Soccer Centres and Powerleague. The companies have virtually cornered the British market with more than 500 all-weather pitches between them. Last year analysts were praising the companies for their defensive characteristics - especially in the case of Goals Soccer Centres - claiming little or nothing would stop British men from living out modest glory with their pals, with low cost and pressure from peers amounting to grounds for revenue growing even in a downturn. No less a figure than Standard Life Investment's star stock picker Harry Nimmo, who heads its UK Smaller Companies fund, has praised Goals and taken large positions. Somewhere the belief has changed, with Goals Soccer Centres' latest update prompting a seemingly terse note from Altium Securities, which reiterated its "sell" stance and called into question Goals' claim that it could open six sites a year within its current banking facilities. Analysts added that even in the first half the company opened three sites only because it bought them, and would probably have failed to open its target of six sites this year if it had not. It is only fair to note that the same statement prompted a "buy" recommendation from KBC Peel Hunt, which described Goals' current valuation as "absurd". Powerleague, too, has fallen out of vogue. Less flashy in its facilities, in terms of actual estate the Paisley-based group is bigger than Goals. Its size was boosted by 69 pitches this year when it added facilities previously owned by JJB Sports in a GBP 17.6 million deal. But since then it appears to have fallen foul of the market. The company struck what appeared at first glance to be a fantastic deal in March, selling almost 24 million shares - more than a quarter of the company - to US investor Patron Capital Partners, at an eye watering 20.4 per cent premium to the share price at the time. However, the deal seems to have done little to endear the company's chairman, Claude Littner, and chief executive, Sean Tracey, to investors, because only they were able to sell shares under the deal. In the context of the current market, the declines of both Goals and Powerleague (down 6.5p to 54p yesterday) are by no means extraordinary, but the scale of the opportunity open to these companies is so huge they would do well to keep the City on their side. Both have begun tentative plans to expand beyond the the UK, and the potential elsewhere - Europe and the United States in particular - appears huge. But substantial expansions will require substantial cash, and this will only come to the companies if they have the support of shareholders and analysts. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Has a snippit of that quote you saw cup
simonhollingsworth
07/7/2008
15:34
Historically Goals have delivered fantastic growth. As for the future, the recent statement says it all "trading remains strong and resilient" - I cannot see why Altium are being so negative. Google Alerts brought up an article in The Scotsman newspaper where a note from analysts KBC was covered which stated: "...We confirm our forecast representing 30% earnings growth both this year and next. In view of this outstanding growth prospect, the current PER rating of 16.8x 2008E and 13.0x 2009E is absurd We reitireate our share price target of 470p..." says it all!!!!
cupasoup2006
07/7/2008
15:20
Trying to get my hands on note to read it in full, but wonder if it takes into account any upside from overseas expansion. Bar revenue decreased from 21% of total to 19% in 05 and 06, though from quick glance through accounts they don't seem to split it out as bar revenue for 07 so hard to know how much of revenue it was for last year. Also question their concern over site openings, if they had been delayed mgt would have had to disclose it, they said 'Our rollout programme continues to plan with three centres added in the half year ended 30 June 2008 and a further three under construction and on schedule to open during the second half of 2008. Our pipeline of sites continues to strengthen and the Board remains confident that a minimum of six centres will be added during 2009.' So where do they get the impression that the sites are delayed? Smacks of another broker screwing over a good stock. Long term still seems excellent, and price is pretty good. It should be trading at a premium to leisure sector given its proven resilience to downturn and upside of US/SA expansion.
simonhollingsworth
07/7/2008
15:05
I reckon this has caused it... Questions over goals for football group Goals, Britain's biggest five-a-side pitch operator by market capitalisation, said trading was "in line with expectations" in the six months to the end of June. It dismissed any impact from a consumer slowdown yesterday, saying it was confident of "excellent" results for the year. It said: "We have not seen any indication of softening demand for our 'next generation' offering, and we believe that our low admission price and the high loyalty associated with team sports indicates our business is resilient to any wider consumer spending downturn." Goals opened three sites in the first half of the year with three due to open in the second half. The board is confident of opening another six sites in 2009, its annual target. Wayne Brown at Altium Securities had a critical take on an update he said contained "no new information". In a note he pointed out that the three sites opened in the first half of the year came from the acquisition of Pro5 in February and "the current year's development programme would most likely have been beyond reach if this was not done". Brown predicted that, based on net debt forecasts, "the facility will need to be extended," if the company was to open six sites a year. Shares in Goals dipped 1.5p to 247.5p. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Goals Soccer Centres suffers another foul day after broker's sell note SCOTS STOCKS GOALS Soccer Centres was a darling of AIM in 2007, but its shares have dived recently, despite its apparently highly- defensive characteristics. Britain's largest five-a-side football centre operator by market capitalisation fell another 2 per cent to 249p yesterday, as Altium Securities issued a "sell" note as part of a downgrade of the leisure sector. Analysts predicted a hit from utility costs, falling bar revenues and warned that site openings seemed to have been delayed.
simonhollingsworth
07/7/2008
13:42
Now I am stumped! Doesn't make any sense!
cupasoup2006
03/7/2008
13:22
like I said - they just keep delivering!
cupasoup2006
03/7/2008
12:06
TRADING STATMENT TODAY.... 'no sign of softening in demand'.....'trading in line with expectations'.....'confident of another excellent year'. Let's hope this is picked up by the press tomorrow.
lobby ludd
03/7/2008
09:48
and i said they would release an update! i'm buying in...gonna enjoy watching these short sellers squirm
simonhollingsworth
03/7/2008
07:54
i would start buying now. I said results would be decent
shazzybabes1
02/7/2008
21:28
I can say that the lad who works there says nobody is worried and all these sellers are leaving imo rather early. Directors could do with comin out with a statement about price drop or maybe look to buy shares to maybe give confidence to investors. Very Dissapointing that the price has drifted so low on no negativity. Remember they make moneyfrom selling fresh air and that dosent cost much.
shazzybabes1
02/7/2008
18:10
just looked back over their past results - very impressive annual growth - as you said, always delivered!
cupasoup2006
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