Goals Soccer Centres Share Discussion Threads

[cupasoup2006] 13/12/2011 17:23

no real snow so far.

[pugugly] 08/12/2011 09:03

Anyone know what the snow conditions are at most of the sites ?

[pugugly] 07/11/2011 08:44

Peel Hunt house broker - usually I find best to downgrade HB recs by 1 grade (at least) so for buy I suggest hold at best. If we have a bad winter then all bets are off given level of debt (Ref show gearing at 112%(imo etc)

PS. Looks as though market agrees there could be problems - Now at a 5 year low Source Refs..

[cupasoup2006] 02/11/2011 13:44

Peel Hunt upgrades Goals Soccer Centres from hold to buy, target price raised from 125p to 135p

[gerdmuller] 24/10/2011 09:39

If the weather people are saying this then this should now be a good time to start buying.

[pugugly] 21/10/2011 15:29

Predictions are for an ultra cold winter - UK stocks of road salt at highest levels -
"Based on the natural factors that I have covered and in terms of how I calculate solar activity into my forecasts, it would be adequate to suggest prolonged periods of well below average temperatures and widespread heavy snowfall throughout this winter. This will result in the fourth bad winter in succession for the UK, and will prove to be the worst of them all. I now fully expect records to be broken, with the Highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is therefore vital to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills, and raised awareness amongst the elderly and most vulnerable people. James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

See for full detailed report.

If JM is correct then we could see prolonged closures of GOAL sites with a significant fall off in revenue - One might say that the GOAL Share price might go into "deep freeze" especially given the level of debt that "seabas" has highlighted above.

[windass] 19/9/2011 18:54

Goals is the tip of the month on Sharecrazy

[sebass] 27/7/2011 12:10

Good points Malc999. I think the US is a big mistake at the moment when there is more than sufficient potential growth in the UK and it adds alot of unnecessary overheads and too much management time. I think management must of made the decision at the height of the boom when potential UK sites were harder to find. As for the covenants they are close to them but hopefully after this year they will give themselves a bit more leeway and be reasonable with growth targets.

Since 2008 average return per centre has declined and new centres take longer to mature I think management need to recognise they need to give the business some safety margin by taking account of one offs ie snow, slow economy etc, delays in opening centres by being more cautious and not assuming they will return to a new normal of the growth they had before the credit crunch.

I like this business a lot it's got high barriers to entry, great cashflow, easy predictable business model and operates in an area that will still be popular in a 100 years time. If I owned this business I would take 5 years to pay off the debt and then I would have great free cashflow every year for the rest of my life with very little risk.

Management need to be more cautious and operate more like a private company rather than always trying to set targets for the year and appease broker/shareholders growth requirements.

[malc999] 26/7/2011 05:12

Yes windass that has been true, it appears that cash flow and debt have been used to finance both expansion and the dividends, particularly during the last couple of years with the cold weather resulting in a loss of income. However the company's expansion plans have been cut back from 6 to 4 new openings for the current financial year, presumably with the intention of paying down debt as the company appeared to have reached its debt limits at the last Y/E, and IMHO actually breached one of its debt covenants. However GOALS is a great business and cash generative so it looks like the banks were happy for the business to continue trading as long as GOALS cut their debt levels, hence the reduction in number of openings. Should this winter pass without any extreme weather conditions resulting in temporary closure of sites then IMHO we may well see some share price appreciation over the next 12 months thanks to the company meeting forecasts and a reduction in debt levels.

I still rate goals very highly long-term (10 years from now) thanks to the combination of increase in the number of sites, significant reduction in debt levels, and the US expansion, and over the next 10 years wouldnt be surprised if GOALS turned out to be a 10-bagger, however equally I wouldnt be surprised if the share price struggles to get over the 2 pound mark for the next couple of years as the company needs to win back some confidence from investors.

[windass] 25/7/2011 18:29

I have a question. If they are financing all their capex from operating cash flow doesn't that mean they are effectively using debt to pay the dividend?

[gerdmuller] 11/3/2011 15:52

These were tipped the other day by Small Cap Shares.


With the market now pencilling in earnings of circa 14.8p for 2011 the shares now trade on a multiple of just 9 times. This falls to 7.9 times in 2012 on consensus forecasts for 16.7p of earnings. Considering that the company is clearly a growth stock these multiples look very cheap indeed. Other attractions of the shares include the potential for further overseas expansion and that the company intends to recommend annual dividends which grow at least in line with earnings. BUY.

[aquadave99] 11/3/2011 07:56

Is the current downtrend just moving with the markets or do we think people have lost confidence?

[gerdmuller] 08/3/2011 10:29

This one seems a little stronger this week. Is it not possible for one of you tech bods to put a chart on the page for this one?

[boonkoh] 02/3/2011 10:18

MAK999: Thanks for that quote. Rogers does have a point. Professionally, football (or soccer, to keep to the American theme) doesn't have much of anything in the US. But the fact is that in many middle and high schools across the country, soccer is quite widely played. Many schools have soccer teams - and the term "soccer mom" came about because of that.

The thing is though we have all these Americans who actually know how to play soccer. Recreationally. Which is the market GOALs is targeting right? Recreational soccer, with a bit of a local competitive twist. In nice facilities with well kept pitches.

If there's one country that doesn't have the money to upkeep public facilities such as soccer fields, its the US - states have crumbling finance, and so I see the potential for GOAL. Just waiting to see if their business model works with their pilot centre in the US.

[aquadave99] 01/3/2011 20:05

Yes there are a lot of positives for this stock especially the potential market in the states.
I would feel better if debt was lower say no more than 5 X profit, currently 10% is not much breathing room tbh.
What if there was some more seriuos weather this year and they are shut for a month again? I hope the directors know what they are doing!

[gerdmuller] 01/3/2011 09:09

Free Willy 2, you make some very good points. As long as debt providers see this as the very good cash generator that it is then the debt level should not be a big problem.

[malc999] 01/3/2011 09:02

Here's an encouraging write-up from the Scotsman:



And here's my favourite bit from that article:

"We see the opportunity in America as being so good and so large it's not something we want to give away with a franchise," Rogers added.

Analysts recommended buying shares in the Aim-quoted company, with both Numis and Peel Hunt saying it was significantly undervalued.

Peel Hunt analyst Paul Hickman said: "Goals has come through the most challenging economic and weather conditions in good shape."

[aquadave99] 28/2/2011 16:30

Personally from reading the reports I am happy that there has been little change in price. IMO it shows confidence as the results are by no means good but it is probably the weathers fault anyway (as usual!). The thing that worries me is debt! it has increased massively since 2009 I think to around £51m from £39m? From report I think debt facilities only reach £55m. = worried!

[killieboy] 28/2/2011 12:58

Investors totally unimpressed!

[gerdmuller] 28/2/2011 09:11

Results seem as expected to me. Outlook seems to look ok also. I think broker comments should be fairly good from here.

[paulypilot] 20/2/2011 05:11

Super share. Fab cashflows, barriers to entry. Roll out. DYOR.

[aquadave99] 15/2/2011 14:05

I think we are having the usual rise up to results day. There will be a bit of a sell off when results are released but hopefully not too much. Judging by the price rise over the last month or so I would say good results are expected - despite snow etc that will already be factored in after trading update in early Jan.

[malc999] 14/2/2011 10:37

Announced via the RNS today:

14 February 2011

Goals Soccer Centres plc

Notice of Results

Goals Soccer Centres plc will be announcing their preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2010 on Monday, 28 February 2011.

[gerdmuller] 09/2/2011 11:02

Well I make it that these are on PE ratios at 135p of 11, 9 and 8 for the next couple of years with eps forecast to grow by about 38 per cent.

So perhaps finally people coming into the market are beginning to see some value.