Go-ahead Share Discussion Threads

[enami] 19/5/2010 09:31

BROKER CALL: Go-Ahead downgraded by Morgan Stanley
19 May, 2010 09:13:44 AM

Broker goes to underweight from from equal-weight on the bus and rail firm and cuts its price target to 1275p from 1300p. Prefers Stagecoach (overweight) and National Express (also rated overweight) as it takes a close look at the sector. Adds: 'Cracks are starting to appear in certain segments in Bus & Rail, namely those that are less levered to passenger recovery (US School Bus, i.e. FGP) and those that involve a strict regulatory environment (London Bus - Go Ahead Group). On the other hand, businesses where operators benefit from
returning passengers (UK Rail - Stagecoach), or where there's a more benign regulatory environment (Spain - National Express), are trading more robustly and we think this is set to continue.'

[enami] 19/5/2010 08:28

No trt - I think it will be quite low. Remember part of the final dividend was paid early.

From the interim results.
"The Board has decided to make a one-off increase in the proportion of the total dividend for the year paid as an interim dividend (prior to the end of the current income tax year), with a corresponding reduction in the proportion paid as a final dividend. Accordingly, the interim payment will increase by 25.5p to 51.0p (H1'09: 25.5p), payable on 1 April 2010 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 19 March 2010.
This timing change results in a payment of around GBP11.0m approximately six
months earlier than usual, has a relatively small impact on our overall earnings and cashflows and the Board believes is in the best interests of our
shareholders. The Board has not changed its overall dividend policy and expects
to return to its traditional dividend distribution weighting of approximately
one third at the interim stage and two thirds as a final dividend in the next
financial year."

[trt] 19/5/2010 08:11

Grabbed a few more at this superb price - my next divi payout is going to be a bumper one !!

[trt] 10/5/2010 10:16

Hugely undervalued at this price - great opportunity

[trt] 07/5/2010 15:54

I really didn't think I'd get another oppportunity to top up at these levels - this is great!!!

[trt] 06/5/2010 09:51

Back up we go could move swiftly to £14+

[trt] 05/5/2010 12:09

And again fab opportunity

[trt] 30/4/2010 09:36

Topping up this morning

[trt] 29/4/2010 11:17

Solid statement - good news

[trt] 27/4/2010 16:10

Trading statement due on Thursday - should be very good reading.
Topped up today to take advantage.

[trt] 26/4/2010 17:12

Well yes I am certainly in for the long term, the yield is fantastic you cant get close on the high street.
However a takeover can never be ruled out.

[phil140158] 26/4/2010 16:35

Steve - none of the regular posters on here are in GOG for the prospects of a takeover bid. They are mainly long term holders looking for income from the dividend. The thought of a takeover, with GOG as prey or predator, helps to liven up our otherwise dull lives!

[bunnji] 26/4/2010 13:35

Suspect it will be GOG doing acquisitions rather than the opposite, they are in no rush to be bought, and plenty of opportunities out there to enhance the coffers.

[steve517757] 26/4/2010 10:52

Again I will re-iterate what I have said before ... there maybe an odd merger in the sector, but I do not see major consolidation here.

DB wanted Arriva for their ability to expand in Europe. DBs ability to win passenger contracts outside Germany was abysmal. They operate 85 Danish buses, start 1 Swedish train contract in December, and have small Polish and Czech operation just over the border from them. In UK they have already acquired Chiltern Railways, and had a little success in winning contracts, 50% London Overground and start Tyne and Wear Metro service soon. By contrast, Arriva operated in 12 countries, were 3rd largest rail operator in Germany, and had major presences in many of the others ... and all countries that complimented DB's small operations. Additionally Arriva have made the final 2 shortlist with Transdev, to operate all bus services in Malta.

DB are buying a company with a proven record of expanding in the market they wish to dominate ... none of the other UK companies have this.

None of the European groups have made any rumblings about wanting to conquer the US market, and think any acquisitions are likely to be bolt-ons without any unwanted baggage. With it they are not good value for money.

Personally I can only see NEX being possibly taken out from a European company, and the Asian companies have been very quiet, although the press did link Comfort Delgro to Arriva, they never said anything about it.

Think if any company seriously wants to be taken over by a European company, they will need to make a major play for and hopefully get the Arriva German rail business.

I think buying transport sector stock in the hope of a takeover is a risky business.

[trt] 23/4/2010 16:06

I wonder if SNCF will bid for Go Ahead, after all they failed to get Arriva and are obviously keen to expand through aquisitions.
Will they want to pounce sooner rather than later, could we see a bid come in over the weekend before the market opens on Monday - anything is possible !!!

[trt] 22/4/2010 16:10

Guardian reports - 'Arriva, the bus and train operator, is being acquired by Germany's Deutsche Bahn in a £1.585bn deal that will create a major passenger transport firm.

The deal means that Deutche Bahn has triumphed over French rival SNCF, which had hoped to merge with Arriva.

It may trigger a wave of consolidation across the UK transport sector.'

[trt] 22/4/2010 16:05

steve,

Its possible GOG could be interested,but they may well receive a bid offer themselves before having a chance to snap up any German assets.

Have topped up on the slight pullback this afternoon after we touched £15+ this morning.

Well as they say you have got to be in it to win it !!!

[steve517757] 22/4/2010 12:21

Guys, as this is the busiest of the Transport threads ... do you envisage any of the British groups being interested in Arriva's German rail operations, which Deutsche Bahn will have to dispose of?

[enami] 22/4/2010 09:32

Now that the Arriva bid is official at 775p and I expect the key dates are known (though haven't read the details) any funds will probably be redirecting their transport allocation to other stocks in the same sector, maybe buying on T+ contracts to coincide with the Arriva payout.
EDIT (Subject to the approval of Arriva Shareholders and the satisfaction or waiver of the other Conditions, it is expected that the Scheme will become effective in August 2010.) Quite a long time to wait for a payout, might as well sell ARI shares now and use the money elsewhere - HERE.

SP has reached the same level as the initial Arriva news - could be the lip of a cup with upside target circa 1598.

[trt] 22/4/2010 09:20

Do we have a bid ?

[phil140158] 22/4/2010 09:08

I've been down the farm to check the animals.............back to the office to make a couple of calls............and WOW!!! GOG is on fire. Will it last?

[steve517757] 21/4/2010 16:26

The services of the 3rd largest German rail operator are expected to be available soon - any thoughts as to who may acquire them?

[phil140158] 20/4/2010 19:31

Thanks for the posts, trt. Interesting times. We have seen decent growth in the share price over the past few days. Long may it continue! That, of course, is on top of the excellent interim divi!

[trt] 20/4/2010 18:46

Times - Arriva - The acquisition will confirm Deutsche Bahn as Europe's strongest transport operator, particularly as it has seen off competition from SNCF, the French-state owned rail group, to secure Arriva.

The deal may trigger a wave of consolidation across the sector. Shares in FirstGroup and Go-Ahead rose yesterday on that expectation. Brian Souter, the chief executive of Stagecoach, has told The Times that his company is ready to participate in sector consolidation and that it had the firepower for a big deal.