Global Energy Development Share Discussion Threads

[anangf] 17/10/2014 10:14

thanks for that.

plenty of exploration stocks trade below cash value, but not many have 2P reserves.

[paleje] 17/10/2014 09:46

There's a new Equity Devs note out, Anangf:-



I think the market is saying it has been frustrated with these guys for ages and still reluctant to give them credit but I don't think they would have swapped cashflow for cash if they couldn't see an attractive use for it.

[anangf] 17/10/2014 09:22

Interesting, but I can't find the Equity Development Coverage note from March 2014 on the GED investor relations page any more.

I am sure I recall a value 116p ascribed to Llanos.

Not sure why the report no longer available (if I am missing it, please point me in the right direction).

I also do not understand the valuation here. Ok the enterprise is a lot riskier now as the main productive asset is sold, but it looks way off where it should be based on reserve value.

The market value is basically saying it does not believe reserves to be recoverable.

[paleje] 15/10/2014 11:20

One mans's meat and all that, maybe Platino are just better managers, buy/sell situations always have 2 views, neither need be wrong.

We must see better use of the capital in other assets, we've learned from Catalina 1 which could yet 'unblock', we know now that conventional drilling can do the job which is much cheaper, free carry drills still to go, cash in bank, no debt.

Northland reissued 'buy' upped price a bit to 181 not that its very meaningful.

[dewtrader] 15/10/2014 10:43

swelling llanos to a related party?

sugests they have emptied the gold and leaves the carp for aim investors

[hyperboreus] 14/10/2014 22:51

Anticipated completion date is on or around 28 November according to Platino Energy:



Interesting quote from Tomas Villamil, President and Chief Executive Officer of Platino:

"The acquisition of CEDCO satisfies Platino's previously stated strategy of leveraging our existing cash balance and management expertise to complement our long-term Putumayo exploration portfolio with near to medium-term opportunities. The production and reserves from these assets position Platino to achieve significant shareholder value creation in Colombia."

GED made a right horlicks of their last disposal/gift to Gran Tierra, on reflection I feel there may be an element of desperation in flogging Llanos off at this stage, hopefully I am proved wrong and they have made the correct decision this time.

[hyperboreus] 14/10/2014 12:07

New article just published about GED in IC by Simon Thompson who is very bullish and no doubt also slightly relieved :-)

[salpara111] 14/10/2014 10:38

Still underwater but definitely a lot happier this morning.

[boystown] 14/10/2014 10:13

Well please excuse my gross over-simplicity here, but with cash on the way in excess of the mkt cap, and farm-out agreements in place on the remaining assets with proved reserves of 43.2 mmbbls – if we say those assets will be worth only $2.50 per barrel to GED, we’re looking at £1.87 pps.

This takes no account of the $50m at all - but pre-supposes they have sufficient cash from this to develop the two assets. But it also puts absolutely nothing in the price for the 95.4 mmbbls of 2P reserves.

I also imagine Simon Thompson in the IC will update on these soon (today?) and call them a strong buy which should give the share price a further fillip. Even so – I won’t consider selling sub 120p – and even then only half.

Just my thoughts - I understand there's some lack of trust of GED (though personally I don't think it's justified - explo is explo).

[fuiseog] 14/10/2014 09:23

Clever stuff, very glad I hung in here. They've always been good at managing the cash. Now if only they can get to grips with operations.....

[hyperboreus] 14/10/2014 09:20

I totally agree with your final paragraph Boystown, £25 million in the bank sounds great, particularly when GED's market cap is currently around £20 million, however long standing shareholders have suffered so much pain over the years therefore I would never describe investing in GED right now as a 'no-brainer' :-)

Who knows what is likely to happen going forward here, however for once the share price is heading in the right direction at last!

Amendment to share cap calcs as the price has started to motor since I commenced writing this drivel, it is currently £22.2 million!!!

[boystown] 14/10/2014 08:50

Hyperboreus - fair enough.

I get 73.4pps pre expenses and after paying down debt based on 36.11 shares in issue.

Either way - it's what they do with it thereafter that counts. DAK development costs ref Bolivar after farm-out?

[hyperboreus] 14/10/2014 08:44

$50 million consideration less $7.5 million debt less expenses associated with the deal say round it down to $40 million.

£/$US exchange rate currently around $1.6 to £1 equates to £25 million consideration.

GED Number of shares in issue say 36.2 million equals approx 69p per share according to my quick calcs.

Having said that as you point out Bolivar and Bocachico contract potential to add to that which is impossible to put a value on at this stage.

It will be interesting to see where the share price is once this news is fully digested.

[wooster4] 14/10/2014 08:42

Once board have determined what to do with proceeds, I fully expect a substantial return of capital.

[dlku] 14/10/2014 08:39

Flags a big gaping hole in its finances.

Heading towards 5p like all the other rubbish

[boystown] 14/10/2014 08:33

This deal is worth not far from 90p per share - and around 74p even after they've paid off the debt - with proven reserves of 43mmblls and the cash to get at it and the share price is 52p. This is possibly the biggest no-brainer I've ever seen - so I'm in at 57p.

[philo124] 14/10/2014 08:03

Well done to those that held out.

[paleje] 02/10/2014 16:00

Do any of them:)

Small point I've noticed WTI suffering less than Brent, not sure why that is but it's in out favour.

[fuiseog] 02/10/2014 11:26

Did they say when-:)

[paleje] 02/10/2014 11:17

Northland reissued their 177p target this morning.

[paleje] 22/9/2014 22:13

Unconventional, dlku, but I suppose it would kill 2 birds with one stone. Of course if/when the emulsion clears and we've got the next well on the go we might feel different.....about the oil at least.

[paleje] 16/9/2014 16:45

Plug and abandon what, ST or the well?

[dlku] 16/9/2014 16:07

yes ST tips doggies

best plug and abandon as soon as, to conserve monies

[rcturner2] 16/9/2014 15:14

Bad results from THAL today, another ST tip. Down 25%.