Global Energy Development Share Discussion Threads

[salpara111] 11/11/2014 16:03

It is rather odd to see the large drops given that the transaction has effectively been rubber stamped and the current market cap is well below the cash to be received. I guess the main issue is that Bolivar has failed to deliver and as such they could run through a large portion of the cash on more failed drills.
I would like to see them do a capital return of at least 50% of the proceeds but I seriously doubt that they will do that!

[paleje] 11/11/2014 15:23

GM is 17th Nov but completion hasn't been dated yet, think they might need TSX approval first.

[on target] 11/11/2014 14:48

Guaranteed to be voted through as well unless these 60.87% holders change their minds.
Do we know when the transaction will take place if approved?

"As stated above, Shareholders owning an aggregate of 21,980,404 Shares, representing 60.87 per cent. of the total Shares in issue, have undertaken
to retain their Shares until the General Meeting and to vote or procure the voting of their Shares in favour of the Resolution."

[paleje] 11/11/2014 14:33

Why the drop, we've got $50m cash due in a few weeks.

A major could buy us with pocket money, current m/cap about £17m, get their money back in a few weeks from the sale with cash on top, and have Bolivar and Boccachico in for free.

[paleje] 27/10/2014 10:35

Cheers I'll find it, was curious.

[liarspoker] 27/10/2014 10:01

paleje, the webinar is where I show people what cheap shares are, how to find them etc. Roughly 45 minutes long with Q&A at the end.

I don't think that I can post the link here but look at Market - Swings dot com and you will find the link.

dewtrader - that is a possibility but I hope that everest starts other wells first.

[dewtrader] 27/10/2014 09:14

lets hope they dont plug and abandon due to emulsion being unworkable

[paleje] 27/10/2014 09:01

What's your Cheap Shares webinar, Liarspoker?

[liarspoker] 26/10/2014 19:28

Well I hope that there's no announcement of any sort until after Sunday, 16th November as I have decided to include GED in my Cheap Shares webinar on that day.

Fingers crossed. :-)

[paleje] 24/10/2014 12:14

When Catalina1 vomits all that nasty emulsion and follows it with black stuff:)

Think it'll be ad hoc when things happen, could be any of -

Completion of sale transaction/cash usage plan.
Catalina1 as above....they said in July give it a few months for nature to work.
Detailed plans for next drill/s.
Further sales Bolivar / Boccachico / both.
Unknown unknowns.

The incoming cash should enable them to accelerate progress overall, I think we should be able to look forward to newsflow in the coming weeks and months.

[anangf] 24/10/2014 11:37

When is the next update expected from the company?

[fuiseog] 24/10/2014 09:45

I think they should return the cash to us and sell the company. They're better exploring on Wall Street.

[paleje] 24/10/2014 09:19

Anangf, agreed the market is usually right but only until it is proved wrong:)

I'm sure all of us can quote circumstances that illustrate that, I can name a few from personal involvement which have doubled or so in past week, on news or near news, STGR, AFCR, GWMO, there must be loads more that languish for whatever reason usually based on past disappointments and frustration then suddenly....

Not saying it'll happen here just that if or when the right news emerges the potential value is very high and free float low so share price could move smartly.

[anangf] 24/10/2014 01:28

Thanks this is all helpful, just remains a mystery why the share price is where it is. My personal experience in these type of situations is that the market is usually right.

[wooster4] 23/10/2014 21:10

Am certain that a large proportion of the proceeds will be returned to shareholders!!!

[paleje] 23/10/2014 20:19

Thanks for those nos, LSP, I've no intention of trying to guess extraction costs and profit but I've dug out some numbers for Amerisur who are also drilling in Colombia and have much smaller (1p) and (2p) reserves than us:-

Amerisur's chief asset is its 100 per cent working interest in the 11,341 hectare Platanillo block in Colombia. Almost uniquely, Amerisur has hardly a blemish on its drill-work since 2012, with 15 successful strikes in the current campaign on the block. Both reserves and production rates have ratcheted up as a consequence. At the end of last year, an independent reserves report published by Petrotech Engineering increased Amerisur's proven (1P) reserves by around two-thirds to 19.8m barrels, while proven and probable (2P) reserves were up 10 per cent to 32.8m barrels - that represents a net present value of $1.25bn pre-tax (£776m) at a 10 per cent discount rate - plenty of 'blue-sky' potential.

[liarspoker] 23/10/2014 18:35

I am not sure how much cash they'll burn as Everest will be funding the entry plus drilling & development of next few wells in Bolivar & Bocachico (re-entries and new wells)..

Let's do a quick back of the envelope calculation which I will leave others to finish:

Cash received from Llanos = $50m
Less $7m for debt repayment
Less costs say $2m

This leaves $41m so let's say $40m to be conservative.

Previous cash on the balance sheet was about $10m of which around $4m is probably eaten up by Catalina & other operating costs.

So $46m net cash is equal to around 79p per share.

This cash will be well preserved imo with the partners funding well entry over the next two years.

Given that $6m was paid for the farm-out agreements plus agreements to pay costs for the well development (say $3m per well times 6 = $18m) then those agreements must be worth around $36m (as the partners would want to double their money at least - not including on-going production etc).

So $36m = 60p per share.

so fair value = 79p + 60p = 139p per share

Now I will leave it up to someone else to factor the extraction costs and profits of the reserves.

Like I said the above it a very quick calculation made up as I typed so feel free to expand on it.

[anangf] 23/10/2014 00:12

So the market thinks they will bleed most of this cash I'm unsuccessful attempts to extract the 2P reserves. This company is now just a punt on viability of those reserves. I do not know enough about this to take a view, but it looks a potentially asymmetric payoff. Any informed geologists on here that can comment on the reserves report (900 pages on GED's web page)?

[paleje] 22/10/2014 21:15

I don't know why the link isn't working, might be because it's tied to an ID, this is on their website -

[liarspoker] 22/10/2014 16:31

A target of 557p is a bit far fetched imo and the link to the report doesn't work.

120p or thereabouts is a much more realistic fair valuation at this stage of the game imo.