Global Energy Development Share Discussion Threads

[paleje] 16/2/2014 11:56

Was reading the Essar Energy debacle in this morning's ST, any risk of similar here? There's talk on American boards of Qashar family planning to buy on the cheap HKN hence the underwhelming management style happy to see the share price drop.

I know chatter on boards can be way out especially when a share price is seen to be suffering but it makes you wonder, hopefully way off the mark.

[salpara111] 10/2/2014 11:26

As a relatively new holder, the share price is underpinned by current production/cash flow when compared to other small E&P companies so unless there is unexpected bad news on the production front the 70p ish area should hold.
The $64,000 question is can the management deliver on their own long stated objective of delivering a bigger strategic partner as that is the only thing that can produce a major change in the fortunes of the business.
At their last results they said they would announce a deal "in the near term future" but we are almost 5 months on from that date with nothing hence the share price drift.
Management for once has put themselves on the hook by publicly stating that they are going to deliver a farmout so it will be interesting to hear what they have to say at the next set of results if they have not done so.

[pugugly] 09/2/2014 10:37

paleje:_ Agreed re small holders bailing out. However market is so thin that larger holders would probably not be able to sell in the market and would have to sell via a market put-through with another institution.

While there was consistent buying at about the 80p level it is worrying that this seems to have dried up. If there was real (as opposed to potential) long term value here I would have expected to have seen sustained buying at this level.

OK some indicaton of buying interest on Friday with the intraday bounce but not possible to determine if this was an institution picking up stock or a few PI's seeling that it had fallen too much.

Will watch next week's share price action with interest as possibly suffering colateral damage from the emerging market meltdown.

[paleje] 08/2/2014 17:05

Isn't the share price drop linked to the fact that less than 15% of shares are with small holders and pi's always bail out at the wrong time? I mean I am one and I'm not bailing but can see how relatively small volume sells can send us downwards. People are fed up waiting but it's happening in other resources co's too, I'd be concerned if we saw larger holders quitting but no evidence of that so far.

[pugugly] 08/2/2014 16:05

Chartwise we could be approaching the 1 year low of 65p as intraday bounce on Friday off sells at 69 & 7o with a buys at 71.7 & 71.75 (if ADVFN software is correct)

If downward trend continues next week and 65p breaks then in potential free fall if any of ST's followers still holding - especially if on margin and get stopped lossed out - buying at this stage (imo) is probably a high risk gamble say 25%-30% downside -v- potentially say up to 100% upside.

The oil seems to be there but not sure if this management have the skills - or knowledge as whom to hire - to extract it at a low enough cost to make an investment viable

Please feel free to cooment or criticise if you feel I may be reading the signs wrongly)

[hyperboreus] 07/2/2014 14:47

I wouldn't argue with you there fuiseog, mainly due to the fact that they have managed GED in such a cautious manner, however the whole point of an E&P outfit surely has to be to derive the maximum sum from the assets at their disposal and thus far they have spectacularly failed to do so in my opinion.

[fuiseog] 07/2/2014 14:33

They have managed the money side well.

[hyperboreus] 07/2/2014 12:23

Message for squintyflinty. the GED Directors are unable to deal whether they wish to or not as Final Results are due back end of March.

I know it is annoying, frustrating and maybe even gut-wrenching to some to watch the share price slide but that is the nature of this beast with the name of GED.

What do you seriously expect when there has been no RNS production update since last July? To compound the situation no word on farm-out development or plan since last September when Stephen C. Voss, Global's Managing Director, indicated "Following the completion of our updated Bolivar Development Plan, we have resumed the partnering process focusing on independent and mid-size companies with higher flexibility for deal terms. The timeframe of these efforts has been lengthened from original expectations, but we remain optimistic of the successful conclusion of our strategic partnering efforts in the near-term future."

How do any of us know what he actually meant by that statement? Investing in GED is highly speculative and you just have to accept that the board couldn't care less about UK investors, whatever will be will be, any sensible, experienced and knowledeable investor would either leave GED alone or just have a flutter within a balanced portfolio.

I have been scathing at times as far as the board of GED is concerned, I think they are totally out of their depth to be honest but I am definitely hanging on, it may seem like 'dead money' for the time being when there are plenty of 'safe' great companies to invest in, but I am ever hopeful that the tide will turn, but I have always been a glass half-full bloke:-)

[james1231] 07/2/2014 10:53

The update is for STs bargain share portfolio which GED was not part of. The last article on GED was 19th November (when the price was 90p) carried the summary:"In the circumstances, I am comfortable reiterating my previous buy recommendation on Global Energy's shares and I still believe that a target price of 140p is not only feasible, but could prove very conservative if the right farm-out deal is struck."

[paleje] 07/2/2014 09:46

There's a ST summary update but it only covers about a dozen shares from 2013, GED isn't amongst them.

[salpara111] 07/2/2014 09:39

Glad I only took a relatively small stake.
If they dont announce the farmout at the next results then I will take my loss and leave as they are clearly incapable of delivering on their own publicly stated objectives.
The share price has gone nowhere for several years and as such is a true reflection of the lack of delivery.
I bought after the last results as they said that they would deliver the farmout in "the near term future" which I think most pundits assumed would be before the end of 2013 but here we are in February and nothing.
Live and learn!

[pugugly] 07/2/2014 08:43

Supposed to be a ST (IC) update about now - Anyone seen anything ?

EDITED:- Suggestion that stop losses are being triggered and little buying interest.

With no farm out news could see this slipping significantly further. (imo)

[hyperboreus] 03/2/2014 09:08

Interesting RNS announcement regarding Non-Executive Director this morning



Nice to see some independent UK 'young blood' being appointed to the board with some relevant expertise in deal making. This appointment would explain why the Phillips Coverage Note myseriously appeared on the website last November.



Also interesting that he already owns a few shares in GED

[hyperboreus] 30/1/2014 10:42

The updated report show a fairly significant increase in that Proved Reserves (1P) +16.1%, Proved + Probable (2P) + 13.4% and Proved + Probable + Possible (3P) + 20.5%

The farm out is NOT going to be announced anytime soon Salpara111 as GED and any future partner will want to know the outcome of the re-entry of Catalina 1 as Voss states:

'We look forward in 2014 to the re-entry of the Catalina 1 well to frac test the Simiti formation once the contracts with service providers have been finalized. Demonstrating oil production from this significant oil asset, our Bolivar Contract area, will be an important step in the path towards maximising value for shareholders and finalising strategic partnering efforts.'

GED NEVER do anything in a hurry, Catalina 1 was first drilled in Feb 1998 for instance but they simply have to get on with it as the Bolivar & Bocachico contracts expire in 2024 & 2022 respectively.

It is interesting to note that Northland Capital have maintained, not increased their target price of 186p despite the positive increase in reserves.

They like the rest of the market will fail to be convinced that GED can pull it off until the results of the Catalina 1 frac test are out there.

As always it seems with GED the waiting game continues..... but I don't think it is worth giving your shares away at these levels, if and it is a big IF GED get lucky for once this bulletin board may well yet be awash with ecstatic posters!

Incidentally Ralph E Davis Associates Inc must love clients such as GED that p*ss fart about :)

[salpara111] 30/1/2014 09:15

Was all excited for about 10 seconds as I thought it was the farmout news but as yet nothing.

[fuiseog] 30/1/2014 09:06

We have a new, and slightly improved, reserves report this morning.



With news of drilling 'in 2014' followed by "finalising strategic partnering efforts".

And a little lift in the share price this morning has followed.

[pugugly] 28/1/2014 17:40

Hyperboreus:> Not sure if irrelevant (IMO) We are dependent on the quality of managment and you may be right that it sends a message.

[hashertu] 28/1/2014 11:09

Salpara. I agree about the RNS/material news.
However, the news about renewed Farc activity can still affect sentiment and expectations about future attacks (or not), country security etc.
FYI BOIL did not issue an RNS when the attack took place, for reasons I do not know. It is possible that the Columbian government "requested" that they did not do so.

[hyperboreus] 28/1/2014 11:02

Irrelevant I know now:



And to think that GED sold their 100% interest for just $5.4 million, Global's 'experienced management team' well and truly stuffed by Gran Tierra Energy Inc

[salpara111] 28/1/2014 09:45

If there was an issue that affected the business and it was of a material nature then they would have been obliged to release an RNS to that effect.
Personally I think the drift is more to do with the complete lack of progress on the farmout given the length of time that they have been trying to achieve it.
If they cannot get a farmout in place then I really do think that they should offer the whole company for sale given that a mid cap oiler could pick them up without breaking a sweat.

[hashertu] 27/1/2014 11:23

Baron Oil reported, today, a Farc attack on their facilities in Putumayo that occurred at the end 2013.
This might have added to the gloom around elsewhere to cause some sells.

[salpara111] 27/1/2014 11:13

I guess people who have been in for a long time are tired of waiting for any positive news.
As a relatively new holder having bought at 84 I am not thrilled to see it go down but still reckon that management will have to come up with the goods by the next set of results so I will hold for a few months but can fully understand those who have been in for potentially years giving up now.