Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 08/12/2020 10:04

ep

I do try not to feed the trolls. My filter list is quite extensive. Such an effective tool in the armoury.

[epo001] 08/12/2020 09:46

@richred, Don't feed the trolls. Look at this character's posting history.

[richred_uk] 08/12/2020 09:23

"A 60p dividend from a £100 share - not exactly high yield, is it."

1 - It is if you bought in sometime ago

and more importantly

2 - GAW doesn't have a set dividend schedule - this isn't a case of interim & final dividends, they just throw off money whenever they have a surplus. In (Calendar Years) 2017 they paid out 4 divi's totaling £1.10, 2018, 4 for £1.30, 2019, 5 for £1.55, in 2020, they have paid out 4 times totaling £1.60, plus they returned the Furlough money to the government and built up a cash buffer of 3 months' working capital.

I would expect that if life returns to normal, you would see something more like £2 - £2.50 divi's paid in CY 2021 which at roughly 2.5% yield isn't high yield, but given the growth rate y-o-y is decent, and if you bought in earlier this year, you could be looking at a 5%-ish yield. (Personally I am on an average of £8.03 and laughing)

[redartbmud] 08/12/2020 08:17

Games Workshop is accelerating, says Jefferies

Jefferies is predicting a further acceleration of trends at Games Workshop (GAW) in the second half of the year.

Analyst Andrew Wade retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £124 on the shares, which rose 1.1%, or 115p, to £99.90 after the fantasy hobby shop chain reported that first-half profit before tax would not be less than £90m.

‘It is obviously encouraging to have seen Games Worksop’s strong trading continue through to December, particularly with the accelerating trend through the first half,’ he said.

‘And given Covid-19-disrupted second half comparatives, we see scope for a further step-up in the second half.’

Wade added that the profit upgrade demonstrated ‘the core attractions of Games Workshop – growth, momentum, and a very high profit drop-through’.

[red5] 07/12/2020 17:56

yes one not far from schools are essential . break time they are always busy.

[shanklin] 07/12/2020 15:36

The only part of the AJB write-up I potntially disagree with is the suggestion that shops are not important to GAW. I suspect they are fairly important, especially for recruitment of new customers, especially in schools, and that GAW have achieved this excellent H1 with one hand tied behind their back.

[mysteronz] 07/12/2020 13:41

I sense most people arent here for the dividend - just look at the chart :)

Also just one dividend - plenty more of them through the year

[stepone68] 07/12/2020 13:37

A 60p dividend from a £100 share - not exactly high yield, is it.

[robinnicolson] 07/12/2020 12:27

AJ Bell:

The miniature figures seller continues to surprise the retail world with very strong trading. Guidance for pre-tax profit to be at least £90 million in its first-half period equates to a 13% upgrade since 6 November guidance for profit to be no less than £80 million.

Once considered to be nothing more than a fad spurred by the popularity of the Lord of Rings films, the fantasy worlds created by Games Workshop’s plethora of figures and landscapes have become big business in many parts of the world.

Cynics will say the sustainability of its current trading strength is questionable, given how it is likely to have seen a boost from people stuck indoors, looking for something to do during lockdown. They might say that as society reopens, hopefully from 2021, then painting trolls and orcs could be side-lined in favour of meeting friends in the pub, going to the theatre, concerts and cinema, and other activities which were generally unavailable during the pandemic.

However, it is important to consider that Games Workshop’s success pre-dates the pandemic by a long way. It has enjoyed very strong trading for many years, as evident by plans having already been made to further monetise its intellectual property by developing a TV series which it wouldn’t have done without successful products.

This company has clear earnings momentum and products which are clearly resonating with a growing and hopefully loyal fan base. It’s also impressive that the business has been growing even while many of its shops have been closed.

There was a feeling among many people that its shops were crucial to its success because they were a place to visit, play games and interact with staff who were equally enthusiastic about the fantasy worlds. This year’s sales figures have shown that the physical stores aren’t as crucial to the business as one might have expected.

[cockerhoop] 07/12/2020 12:07

1smw,

Broadly agree, knowing royalties would help immensely and also we only know pbt is 'not less than 90m' so could increase a little in January.

They said 'not less than £85m' in June after the YE and eventually reported £89.4m pbt for FY20.

[1smw] 07/12/2020 11:14

Whilst there is not enough information to forecast with absolute certainty, in particular we don't know how much of PBT is royalty, I am certain my forecast from end July this year of sales £366m, PBT £146.6m, EPS 357.4p is conservative. I am struck by the fact that in Q2 sales growth accelerated to 30% yoy whereas in Q1 it was "only" 20%. Conversely in Q1 PBT margins (I usually look at PBIT, but cannot on this data) were higher at 53.3% than Q2 at 44.2%. With limited data available I am increasing my forecast to sales of £376m, but the big step up is in PBT due to what are clearly higher and sustainable margins. I have this pencilled in at £176m with EPS of 430p.

[epo001] 07/12/2020 10:31

So, a 25% increase on YoY revenue and a 50% increase in corresponding profit, that's not very common. And during a pandemic too.

[red5] 07/12/2020 10:00

yes great upbeat and importantly covid beating trading statement this one is a winner all the way too cheap.

[shanklin] 07/12/2020 09:10

What a completely clueless update

[robinnicolson] 07/12/2020 09:00

Edison (FWIW):

[1rcl] 07/12/2020 08:44

Or may have just been closing the gap from Friday (which has now occurred). On fundamentals, this is a bargain this morning (IMO).

[tiswas] 07/12/2020 08:36

Wow! There is a serious seller out there selling in to strength and taking advantage of any liquidity.

[nimbo1] 07/12/2020 08:36

Not many - share price reaction suggests Brexit fears and or market thinks its a covid bump which can't be repeated.

[nod] 07/12/2020 08:06

H1 PBT up 50%
How many companies are achieving this level of growth?

[dime] 07/12/2020 08:04

L2 suggesting 105

[djphaif] 07/12/2020 07:57

Any predictions on opening today?

[cockerhoop] 07/12/2020 07:45

Looks like KAL a forced seller again :-)