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[nod] 30/11/2020 10:47

Thank you for your replies to my broad question about how recession-proof GAW will be in the next recession - which is not far away. I didn't see many acknowledge that a recession is on the horizon.

As I've mentioned on here over the past 12 years (since Sept 2008), I had been in and out of GAW a few times since the mid-90s. Obviously, we are a much bigger and better company than we were 25 years ago.

I purchased my modest current GAW holding at the start of 2009 at just below 200p after the GFC was having an impact on economies and stock markets around the globe. The GFC began in 2007 but it took time for reality to ripple down.

If the Thumbs Up posts on this board are a guide, then the bulls are undoubtedly here. Buffett has words of caution for bulls and advice for investors.

[shanklin] 30/11/2020 08:33

GAW even has a better quality of overstated problems :-)

[cockerhoop] 30/11/2020 08:16

Agree 1rcl, the retrospective made to order solution as with Indomitus sorted the scalping out straight away. Mooted for Blood Bowl but unlikely to be extensive as stock still available.
MTO for best selling Battleforce set perhaps could be considered for January.

But as I said i'm not seeing ebay full of scalped sets so think it's an imaginary problem.

[shanklin] 30/11/2020 08:16

Fair point. I guess it depends how much other production would be lost, or additional cost incurred, in producing more of a previous production run.

If the threat of doing so was there, it might have an impact. Its obviously a different situation to scalping concert tickets where there is quite probably no possibility of increasing supply.

[1rcl] 30/11/2020 08:08

But how would they know? As far as I am aware, the factory print run is already complete before the pre-order period starts. The pre-order period possibly just helps with logistics.

[shanklin] 30/11/2020 08:05

I should have said GAW could prevent it by increasing production runs in situation where scalping has obviously taking place

[cockerhoop] 30/11/2020 07:58

I'm not seeing Battleforce boxes being scalped on ebay (it was certainly happening with Indomitus until the MTO sorted it)

[1rcl] 30/11/2020 07:57

Some demand is genuinely surprising. GAW produced the most units ever (by some way) for Indomitus - and it sold out in minutes.

GAW also don't want to be left with excess stock if they get it wrong - reducing their margins.

[shanklin] 30/11/2020 07:36

GAW could prevent it by increasing production runs.

[1rcl] 29/11/2020 08:14

It's arguable about what is 'good business'. This problem has occurred throughout GAW's meteoric rise.

Some of the company's releases are deliberately limited print runs - but the majority are not and are part of their ongoing catalogue.

As you say, the company could limit order size, but I understand that this can be beaten by multiple identities while at the same time making it difficult for genuine customers who want to build large armies.

Also, the level of demand is genuinely surprising for some releases. The battleforces are a regular pre-Xmas release - and many of them seem to have sold out quicker this year, even at a higher price.

[gadolinium64] 29/11/2020 02:28

Some fans are complaining that the sets are being 'scalped' - i.e. bought in bulk for resale at a higher price on eBay. Apparently GAW are aware of the issue, but they could do more to combat it (e.g. limiting number of purchases per customer?). While scalping may be a defensible/inevitable practice from a laissez-faire perspective, it's not good business for GAW if the fans end up shelling out more to third parties.

[1rcl] 29/11/2020 00:45

Battleforce sales seem to be going very well in America too. 7 out of the 10 battleforces have now sold out on the GAW USA webstore.

This has two additional points of significance:

1) North America is now GAW's biggest market.
2) The boxes cost $210/$200 vs £125/£120 in the UK - a significantly higher margin due to the longstanding pricing conversion that GAW use (although presumably offset to some degree by higher logistical costs).

[woland1] 29/11/2020 00:32

6 of 10 battleforces now sold out.

[1rcl] 28/11/2020 11:40

Just a final comment to complete the postfest. All of that grey plastic will prompt the sale of a lot of very high margin paint.

:-)

[1rcl] 28/11/2020 11:28

The increased price of this year's Battleforce boxes certainly doesn't seem to have dented demand. Anecdotally, the selling rate feels quicker to last year. Element have now sold out of 9 of the 10 sets, and even GAW's webstore has sold out of 4 of the 10 in <90 minutes since pre-order opened.

I wonder if GAW will consider a made-to-order run (like Indomitus) - I suspect not as I think they would be wary of setting a precedent for a regular fixture such as Battleforces.

[1rcl] 28/11/2020 10:49

I don't know whether the (presumably quite significant) revenue from the Battleforce orders placed today will be in H1 or H2. I suspect H2, because actual deliveries of these orders won't start until 5/12, which is in GAW's H2, and GAW tend to account as conservatively as possible within the guidelines.

[1rcl] 28/11/2020 10:44

40 minutes in from Battleforce box pre-order starting, 7 of the 10 battleforces are now sold out at Element. There is currently still stock for most of these on the GAW webstore, but at a much better margin for GAW.

[1rcl] 28/11/2020 10:12

The 'Xmas release' Battleforce sets went on pre-order at 10am. By 10:08, the Necrons Eradication Legion box at £125 was already sold out on GAW's webstore and at Element Games (a sizeable independent store with a big online offering).

While I was typing the above, more of the Battleforce sets sold out at both GAW and Element.

I'm assuming the company made more than a small amount of these boxes.

[1rcl] 28/11/2020 09:35

I appreciate Black Friday 'deals' can be misleading, giving a false impression of saving or to get rid of unwanted stock. Nonetheless, many companies do 'mark stuff down on Black Friday'.

[stepone68] 28/11/2020 09:18

No one marks stuff down on Black Friday! In my experience prices are more likely to go UP!!

[1rcl] 27/11/2020 17:26

GAW's webstore doesn't mark down any of its items on Black Friday.

Pricing power = maintaining margins.

[1rcl] 27/11/2020 16:52

Nearly half of today's volume was in the closing auction at 9580.

[shanklin] 27/11/2020 11:07

Its not a major stretch to see them beating the current y/e 05/21 broker forecast by 20%, so personally I see almost all the risk as being to the upside.

[luderitz] 27/11/2020 10:32

Long term I think they are still going to prosper but short term because of the £ on the rise maybe not so good, we shall see.