Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[nickjoseph] 05/12/2020 19:47

Thanks for the info

[1rcl] 05/12/2020 18:17

Nick - the December factsheet should be published here soon: hxxps://www.sanford-deland.com/6/the-funds/the-buffettology-fund/fund-performance.

On that same link, you can register for free to receive the monthly fact sheets by email. That's what I did and the email recipients seem to get them a bit before they are published on the website.

[nickjoseph] 05/12/2020 16:50

1rcl do you have a link to the dec fact sheet ?

[1rcl] 05/12/2020 10:51

"It’s an amazing time for Warhammer right now – more people are getting involved in the hobby we love than ever before – this means our online store is busier than ever too, so we need to let you know about the last chance you’ll have to order the Warhammer you need for Christmas. Because of how busy things are, these dates are earlier than in previous years."

hxxps://www.warhammer-community.com/2020/12/04/important-news-about-christmas-deliveries/.

GAW's online store results in the highest margins for the company (although all their channels are very high compared to 'normal' companies).

[1rcl] 04/12/2020 16:49

The Buffettology Fund December update is now out.

In it KAL confirms that, after being a forced seller of GAW due to exceeding 10% of fund NAV, the GAW price pullback meant that he could (and did) buy back some of the GAW shares that he had been forced to sell.

[nimbo1] 04/12/2020 08:15

It doesn't take too much scuttlebutt to see how much expensive stuff has sold out on their website : )

[1rcl] 03/12/2020 19:29

One reason for a new TS would be if the company now knew that the H1 (just completed) results guidance should be materially higher than the figure given in the previous TS.

[tictac] 03/12/2020 19:25

I don't see a trading statement as likely. There is some small chance of a dividend declaration.

GAW generally hasn't issued statements of any kind during periods of decline in the share price.

I think (very wisely) that they'd never wish to be seen to be trying to prop the price up.

[redartbmud] 03/12/2020 19:12

UT at 1020p, slap bang in the middle of the spread.

[redartbmud] 03/12/2020 19:09

No indeed.
If you use the london Stock Exchange website, it has the flag next to each trade, to tell you what type the trade is.
Scanning the transactions throughout the day there is ax extremely high number designated 'algo'.

[janeann] 03/12/2020 17:09

a 22000 trade at close - not sure that's the algos red!

[redartbmud] 03/12/2020 16:24

The algos appear to ne in charge here, walking the price up and down.

[janeann] 03/12/2020 16:13

its less than a month since the last one tho - so personally I would be surprised - but time will tell!

[cockerhoop] 03/12/2020 15:58

If there's a Trading Statement before the Interims this year tomorrow morning looks favourite!

[janeann] 03/12/2020 15:31

Looks like someone wants these today;

[davidosh] 03/12/2020 11:12

Keith Ashworth Lord is our special guest speaker at the Mello Christmas show on Monday 14th December so I suspect Games Workshop will be one of the companies highlighted.

There will also be a company presentation from Sumo.

There are 12 sessions altogether across two days so well worth checking out.

[red5] 02/12/2020 21:43

why the drift down?

[1rcl] 30/11/2020 11:42

Nod - I found GAW in 2017 using an ATH screen, when the bulls were also strongly present. The longer I owned it, the more I learned about the operational and customer sides of the business.

As long as the operational and customer sides keeps delivering, the FCF will keep flowing and growing - that's why I try to keep close tabs on both those aspects.

I can't forecast macro changes or the world's response to them. I'm aware they can hurt financially, but GAW's realistic earnings and FCF yields still look great value to me at today's price given the alternatives, particularly when there is also the potential for very significant further growth in a global niche dominated by GAW.

Yes, all things come to an end, or experience a down cycle. And if people believe they see signs, then they should act on them. The signs I am seeing for GAW are still very strong IMO.

[nimbo1] 30/11/2020 11:28

money printing, low interest rates and currency devaluation outweigh the risks of recession for me...means you need to be invested in something until that cycle changes imo - just depends what one thinks is best.

GAW is a fine asset by any standards - they pay increasing dividends to shareholders. Discount rate market willing to apply unknown in face of hard economic times I agree. But GAW is selling to the entire world... not just little UK.

[nod] 30/11/2020 10:51

Investopedia:
Warren Buffett once said that it is wise for investors to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
This statement is somewhat of a contrarian view on stock markets and relates directly to the price of an asset: when others are greedy, prices typically boil over, and one should be cautious lest they overpay for an asset that subsequently leads to anaemic returns.
When others are fearful, it may present a good value buying opportunity."

[nod] 30/11/2020 10:47

Thank you for your replies to my broad question about how recession-proof GAW will be in the next recession - which is not far away. I didn't see many acknowledge that a recession is on the horizon.

As I've mentioned on here over the past 12 years (since Sept 2008), I had been in and out of GAW a few times since the mid-90s. Obviously, we are a much bigger and better company than we were 25 years ago.

I purchased my modest current GAW holding at the start of 2009 at just below 200p after the GFC was having an impact on economies and stock markets around the globe. The GFC began in 2007 but it took time for reality to ripple down.

If the Thumbs Up posts on this board are a guide, then the bulls are undoubtedly here. Buffett has words of caution for bulls and advice for investors.

[shanklin] 30/11/2020 08:33

GAW even has a better quality of overstated problems :-)

[cockerhoop] 30/11/2020 08:16

Agree 1rcl, the retrospective made to order solution as with Indomitus sorted the scalping out straight away. Mooted for Blood Bowl but unlikely to be extensive as stock still available.
MTO for best selling Battleforce set perhaps could be considered for January.

But as I said i'm not seeing ebay full of scalped sets so think it's an imaginary problem.

[shanklin] 30/11/2020 08:16

Fair point. I guess it depends how much other production would be lost, or additional cost incurred, in producing more of a previous production run.

If the threat of doing so was there, it might have an impact. Its obviously a different situation to scalping concert tickets where there is quite probably no possibility of increasing supply.