Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[mortal1ty] 16/4/2024 14:10

Team17 nearly flat now.

That business has a market-cap of £368m, with £43m cash. So an enterprise value of £325m. It has revenue of £160m, giving it an EV/Sales valuation of 2x. This itself is a pretty cheap valuation, and probably why the initial sell-off is being bought today.

Frontier has £79m market-cap and £23m cash, which gives it a £53m market-cap. It has sales of c. £85m, giving it an EV/Sales valuation of 0.65x. So a 70% discount to Team17.

Team17 is currently more profitable... but Frontier Dev has the higher potential for margins over time given its focus on own IP.

Target for FDEV has to be that sort of rating.

[prince7652] 12/4/2024 08:50

Need to continue to add

[parob] 12/4/2024 08:38

Lovely bowl forming on the chart too :)

[mortal1ty] 12/4/2024 08:28

Yep that's why everything indicates 5 pound is a realistic near term target. That would be 10x pe. Still cheap but not crazily so anymore.

[koypetition81] 12/4/2024 07:29

In 2021,2020,2019 50p EPS was base case. If we return to this with cost cuts and Planet Coaster 2 this is trading below 5x Earnings... hxxps://www.frontier.co.uk/investors/financial-information

[mortal1ty] 11/4/2024 15:38

No way was it ever justified as a 1.25 valuation. I would have like to have read the note where Stifel justified that.

[mortal1ty] 11/4/2024 15:38

Brokers are a bunch of idiots only concerned about their job.

I used to be a fund manager, and used to meet these guys daily.

All banging on the table at 20 quid.... When the shares are at 1.10 quid ... and the market cap is 30m with 20m cash, with 85m in sales, they are no where to be seen.

[cirlbunting1] 11/4/2024 14:52

Will be holding too. Want at least 150m MC before even considering selling

[bigbigdave] 11/4/2024 14:15

Stifel raises FDEV target price to 180p from 125p

[prince7652] 11/4/2024 14:07

Been adding last few days but not expecting this?

[mortal1ty] 11/4/2024 13:28

My view is £2.50 it hovers at. Moves up to £5-£6 when news of their new game comes, out and a 'story' builds again. Maybe it eventually recovers to £10 but that is a way off.

Not really crossed my mind to take profits yet.

[smithie6] 11/4/2024 12:55

Buy trades at 228-229p

[smithie6] 11/4/2024 12:51

...mortal1ty

..maybe even 2 beers !? ;-)
je je !

-----
I took profits at around 205p as it dipped
....luckily bought most of those back at ~208p today, phewww, almost missed getting back on the bus !!

[parob] 11/4/2024 12:41

Could be an exceptional multi-bagging long term hold of they execute well.

[bigbigdave] 11/4/2024 12:40

In and out of auction, going way higher imo.

[allstar4eva] 11/4/2024 12:39

Quiet here considering the movement

[mortal1ty] 11/4/2024 11:45

I suspect Planet Coaster 2 will push sales £100m+.

£100m sales. 2.5x multiple (same as team17) = £250m market-cap.

That would be £6.50. The chart looks like it wants to head back up there anyways. Just needs confidence / execution.

[koypetition81] 11/4/2024 11:37

600 is base case when Planet Coaster 2 launches this November. Nobody even knows about it yet

[mortal1ty] 11/4/2024 10:59

amt owes me a beer.

[mortal1ty] 11/4/2024 10:42

I remember on the way down how easy it was for small sells to crush the price.

Same happens on the way up.

..and people want in... all the signs are good... huge cash pile, stabilized revenue, better games execution (it seems)... and valuation still less 1x sales.

Only takes a few buys to lift it 5%.

[parob] 11/4/2024 10:36

Maybe that's it for the dip.

[bigbigdave] 11/4/2024 08:35

TM17 results next Tuesday, might provide a lift here.

[7rademark] 10/4/2024 15:44

250p to 600p in quick order.

[7rademark] 10/4/2024 15:43

Agree. As we were talking about resistance over at zoo the same applies here to what I mentioned. Oct 23 the share price bounced around 200p for a few weeks. This creates support and resistance. Taking a negative stance we could return to 160p which is weak support or 150p stronger support. Next resistance is 250p. But once through that look at the chart. The share price will move up rapidly if it breaks 250p.