Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[yankhanson] 17/12/2023 15:47

Last month Frontier said Realms of Ruin "with post-release content, including PDLC ('paid-downloadable content'), we expect sales to build over time."

Let's see how it is doing. On Steam, Frontier's main web retailer:

PDLC #1 "Deluxe Upgrade pack". Number of user reviews: 1
PDLC #2 "Yndrasta pack". Number of user reviews: 4
PDLC #3 "Gobsprakk pack". Number of user reviews: 3

No, those numbers are not typos. On Frontier's other two main stores, Xbox and Playstation, the figures are 0, 0 and 0.

This suggests less than 0.5% of people who bought the game are buying further content. Which fits with the main game's performance - all but flatlined. Steam shows ~2 user reviews per day, ~63 players in-game.

Frontier needs to stop pretending this game has any commercial future at the current £50-£65. Needs to drop the price immediately to e.g. £20 to cut at least some of the £23m loss.

[yankhanson] 15/12/2023 22:45

Aishah, the "current" P/B valuation isn't current, but based on books prior to the latest damage dealt by the F1 and Warhammer flops, due to appear as write-offs on the Jan/Feb update/interims. Hence "share price plunge" above.

[sbb1x] 15/12/2023 15:15

How big was it

[sos100] 15/12/2023 15:02

That's a big buy!

Frontier Developments plc (AIM: FDEV, 'Frontier', the 'Company') announces that on 15 December 2023 it was notified of the following Director share purchases.
Joy Hu, wife of James Mitchell, a Non--Executive Director and PDMR of the Company, purchased a total of 145,000 ordinary shares of 0.5 pence each in the Company ('Ordinary Shares') at an average price of 113.27 pence per Ordinary Share on 14 December 2023. Following this transaction, James Mitchell and Joy Hu are beneficially interested in a total of 347,044 Ordinary Shares, representing 0.88 per cent of the Company's issued share capital.

[mortal1ty] 14/12/2023 17:28

Wonder if we won't get another RNS tomorrow with more directory buys.

To be honest, the CEO picking up £20k shares is pretty slim ffs. Joy Hu, whoever she is buying £100k of shares is pretty more noticeable though.

[mortal1ty] 14/12/2023 17:11

I was too early on this one. Already down 25%.

That said, the last 5 days we have seen almost 11 million shares change hands. I think that is almost 25% of the share count.

Assuming David Braben and Tencent aren't selling... implies almost 35% of the free float has changed hands.

Last time I saw volume like this it was with Inspecs, and the shares jumped 100% soon after (albeit with a reasonable trading update). Basically every seller who wants out can get out. Massive capitulation across the board.

Meanwhile, other, longer-term investors see a bargain and want in, building a foundation for the future.

This was the volume / liquidity event I was waiting for, but wasn't sure I would see.

...and finally directors buying, although would like to see more.

[kemche] 14/12/2023 14:46

It's running on fumes.

[sbb1x] 14/12/2023 09:07

Let's see if we target the 1 week high 132.40

[aishah] 13/12/2023 21:18

But this year could be different looking at the current P/B valuation?

[yankhanson] 13/12/2023 21:09

Anyone considering a takeover would more likely wait for the 25%+ discount given by the traditional FDEV Jan/Feb share price plunge. Especially since this coming one looks likely to beat the 50% record set by the previous.

[sbb1x] 13/12/2023 18:09

Look at the UT .... excellent blue daylooks like someone been collecing all day, fallen far too much... 120s tomorrow

[sbb1x] 13/12/2023 15:58

Take over Target with current Market cap.

[sbb1x] 13/12/2023 14:49

Bit of Fomo there.

[yankhanson] 13/12/2023 11:49

Yup, market cap is chasing cash down toward zero.

Cash is the more worrying of course, what with the alarming rise in burn rate highlighted by The Times yesterday, plus as-yet-unaccounted redundancy payments for the latest round of layoffs.

FD needs great sales numbers in the holiday period, but as per Berenberg's blistering recent downgrade, and the fact none of FD's games are even in the Steam Top 250, this would require a miracle.

So expect another placing for a cash rescue, I'll bet in January.

[sbb1x] 13/12/2023 09:32

Mkt cap 42mCash in bank 20m

[yankhanson] 12/12/2023 23:47

Today, the Times on Frontier: "Avoid".

Highlights from hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/you-cant-bank-on-natwest-delivering-stellar-returns-vk3t8wb7g

Frontier Developments has a big credibility problem. The flop of the video game developer’s latest release forced the group to warn for a second time this year on profits, but also raises questions over its ability to deliver another hit.

The group’s recent history is not reassuring.

The value destruction for shareholders has been epic.

Advice: Avoid
Why: Another profit warning seems likely

[aishah] 12/12/2023 22:24

Capitulation with volume at 5m today. Seller exhausted?

[shinnas] 12/12/2023 15:27

where now? seller is out so quick back up

[shinnas] 12/12/2023 15:13

Bounce started

[scepticalinvestor] 12/12/2023 13:14

Surprisingly there is no major short interest here, cant see anything above 0.5%

[scepticalinvestor] 12/12/2023 13:13

Ouch - once the yanks open, might see this in the 80s