Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[7rademark] 03/4/2024 19:20

Thanks will do some more research tonight but I'm in with a few k. Will add more as I see fit but it looks as though we may see some momentum here. Gla.

[mortal1ty] 03/4/2024 17:14

Parob - Sounds like that guy has been stealing my analysis ;)

[mortal1ty] 03/4/2024 17:13

Crazy how the market works. In reality it wasn't worth £1bn... just like it wasn't worth £30m!

I don't really know what it is worth... only that at a minimum it is 2x where it is now.

I think £100m sales, 15% EBITDA margin => £15m EBITDA. Put that on 8x = £150m EV. Add the cash = £180m market-cap. That would be 3x where it is currently.

That's without a huge amount of growth forecast. Just sensible financial management.

[parob] 03/4/2024 17:11

This chap thinks possible 10/15 bagger when he tweeted in Jan. Thread worth a read:hTTps://x.com/10_ch_10/status/1748823592681308377?s=46&t=_ybVnpe01AP_F1Pw0JqKTg

[rimau1] 03/4/2024 17:05

And during those good days FDEV hit a gbp1bn valuation.

[parob] 03/4/2024 17:05

Good summary :)

[mortal1ty] 03/4/2024 16:43

7rademark.

It has been a long and drawn out story. But broadly it is this.

The good days (pre-2020): The company had a succession of successful titles. These titles were fairly low-risk sim games that were well executed. Elite Dangerous -> Planet Coaster -> Planet Zoo -> Jurassic World -> Jurassic World 2. Each game was a success.

The bad days (2020-2023): Towards the end of the last period David Braben began believing his own hype, and the company lost control. They took projects that were higher-risk, and then executed poorly on them. They launched into new ventures such as Frontier Publishing which was a completely failure. Elite Odyssey, Warhammer, and F1 manager were all flops. Meanwhile cash starts dropping, other video games companies start going under. Everyone flees.

The better days? (2024+): Company secured financial stability. Cash never dropped as much as people thought, because they have such a good back catalogue of games which they release DLCs for. They also took out 20% of cost. More recently they sold off some old IP. Anyways, I think cash at year-end was forecast to be £5m, and it looks like £25m (that is 30% of the market-cap). Management have refocused on low-risk sims, so the pipeline has more thought behind it. Planet Zoo to console has been a success. Later on in the year we might have Planet Coaster 2 which will be low risk.

Valuation = 0.5x sales if you strip out cash. Team 17 I think on 2.5x sales.

So its easily a 5 bagger if they get things sorted again, which I believe they are.

[parob] 03/4/2024 16:34

Very nice close. Will attract technical traders now we've broken out of the trading range.

[rimau1] 03/4/2024 16:31

I would say that this is a break-out...nice

[7rademark] 03/4/2024 16:31

It was your rec put me on to this. Elite was massive when I was in my youth. What did DB do wrong and what was the ATH

[mortal1ty] 03/4/2024 16:30

Although I have to admit I stopped looking when the shares reached £1. Should have bought another 0.2%.

[mortal1ty] 03/4/2024 16:29

People laughed when I told them I bought 0.2% of the company.

Not laughing anymore!

[7rademark] 03/4/2024 16:15

30 quid a share 36 months ago what went wrong. Was that the high.

[7rademark] 03/4/2024 16:10

I'm in today. Only 39m shares in issue with a low mcap and loads of cash. It looks like yesterday's update has been overlooked by the market.

[parob] 03/4/2024 09:12

I entered a couple of months back and am waiting for it to break the trading range it’s been stuck in for the last 4 months or so, before adding more. Once that has been broken there’s a good chance this will go on a decent run and could be a long term recovery stock if all goes to plan. Directors were buying heavily a few months back. Cash was much better than I expected in yesterday’s trading update, and isn’t that far off 50% of the current market cap. Seems to be under the radar at the mo but hopefully that will change soon.

[rimau1] 03/4/2024 09:08

Otherwise the downtrend is intact?

[parob] 03/4/2024 09:02

Looking for a close of 162p+ then will add more.

[mortal1ty] 02/4/2024 08:41

I was about to comment this morning that Planet Zoo on console was doing well. I'm guessing management waited until the launch to put out the update.

[koypetition81] 02/4/2024 08:33

gg, train is leaving

[mortal1ty] 02/4/2024 08:23

Where is that guy that said they were going to do a massive placing, and they were running out of cash? lol.

[cirlbunting1] 02/4/2024 08:18

Glad i didnt... perhaps you ought to follow me? Could've earned yourself 70%+ if you had bought at 98..

[koypetition81] 16/3/2024 12:50

F1 manager 2024 previews and fan comments highly positive, best updates in Elite Dangerous since years, Planet Zoo console upcoming. Nice.

[mortal1ty] 15/3/2024 11:33

Nice to see it moving up... hope it lasts.

9 months until Planet Coaster 2 :)

[mortal1ty] 01/3/2024 07:13

Swedbank selling out. Explains the move down. They were pretty relentless in their sales.