Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[lyndley] 05/12/2023 14:41

Still confused. How does a company share price go from £34 down to £1.30? Can anyone explain.

As I say sure Frontier have had some ups and downs but it's bonkers.

[phowdo] 05/12/2023 13:26

Almost back to the IPO price 10 years after listing. Quite a feat!

[john09] 05/12/2023 12:10

Never catch a falling knife

[yankhanson] 01/12/2023 23:46

Ho ho! Good one.

And for those with long memories, how about "Elite Competent"? Or is that overambitious... :)

[stalebluedot] 01/12/2023 10:39

I think the solution for Frontier is to pay more attention to Nominative determinism. Bring out a game called "Realms of Ruin" is asking for trouble. Next Game should be called "Lords of Profit". Sorted.

[74tom] 01/12/2023 10:30

"Unless you think this company is going bankrupt (with no debt and lots of cash that is unlikely), then it won't fall forever."

Have you not considered that there is a fairly significant chance they need to raise additional capital?

IMO that would explain why none of the PDMR's have bought shares since the decline to sub £2.

As per resolution 13 disclosed in the last annual report'

"That the Directors be and are hereby generally and unconditionally authorised to exercise all powers of the Company, pursuant to Section 551 of the Act, to allot equity securities (within the meaning of Section 560 of the Act) up to an aggregate nominal amount of £65,797.56, which represents one-third of the nominal value of the Company’s issued share capital at the date of this notice, provided that this authority, unless renewed, varied or revoked by the Company in a general meeting, shall expire on the earlier of 15 months after the passing of this resolution or the conclusion of the Annual General Meeting of the Company to be held in 2024"

If they actually care more about maintaining their lifestyle & the jobs of the employees than what happens to the share price, then what stops them raising at 50p?

[yankhanson] 30/11/2023 23:14

mortality: "Realms of Ruin is in the past". We wish. Whereas in fact Realms of Ruin has the future outlined in the trading update only three days ago. "develop, evolve and support". "expect sales to build over time." Meaning likely further losses, just to save face.

Also in Realms of Ruin's future is the disclosure of how much "lower than expected" sales actually are (~95% lower, if Steam is accurate) and of the consequent damage to the asset register (missing from the trading update).

Followed of course by the further profit warning, given that the company has yet to issue the inevitable forecast downgrade from the previous flop, F1 Manager 2023 (again with "lower than expected" sales unquantified) and no way is the latest downgrade sufficient to cover both flops.

[mortal1ty] 30/11/2023 17:08

Just checked. I'm down 3% in this. Crikey. Time to panic lol.

[mortal1ty] 30/11/2023 16:59

I spent most of this year in US tech stocks which were pretty profitable. More recently I rotated out of them into very depressed UK stocks.

It feels a bit like 2009, the valuations on these companies is just too hard to ignore. The outlook maybe rough in the near-term, but over the medium-term the potential for significant returns are there.

These bombed out names like Just Eat, and Kin and Carta are attractive assets with seemingly limited downside. Sometimes it works quickly, like Kin and Carta being bid for, other times I have been too early.

Right now, with the company on a £58m market-cap, and £20m cash in the bank, I struggle to see how it can fall too much more. However, in a recessionary market with forced sellers everywhere, there are funny mis-pricings.

Unless you think this company is going bankrupt (with no debt and lots of cash that is unlikely), then it won't fall forever.

[eigthwonder] 30/11/2023 16:55

I am surprised mortality lasted 15 years as a fund manager - as he claims - if he picked POS like this for a living

[yankhanson] 30/11/2023 16:08

Fellow shareholders, let's all extend sympathy to our friend mortality, considering that his new ownership of 0.2% of the company has triggered early-onset dyscalculia (regarding FDEV's nonsensical recovery financials) and amnesia (regarding FDEV's many unmet past forecasts). This known medical condition arising from owning too many FDEV shares is of course the reason the CEO and CFO (remuneration since 2021: ~£11,420,000) are buying none at all despite the current "bargain" price. Likewise the new Chair of Board. They've seen with their own eyes what a 32% shareholding did to the brain of the President, David Braben.

Stay happy!

[t_baggins] 30/11/2023 14:43

With all due respect he seems to be very attached to Asos oh and Sfor amongst many others underwhelming shares..

What a stupid thing to say, if you hold "no opinion", then for what reason would you buy the shares in the company ?

Even if you're indifferent to the company or its shares, and heaven only knows why you would buy a share you think that of; that is still an opinion. You're still of the opinion that the company /shares are indifferent.

Further, a quick look at your posts and i am not seeing where you are "making any money " there is overwhelming indication that you are losing money like on here, SFOR and ASOS but not much illustrating making any?

Indeed, the only share i can see you are negative on was Zoo, back last month and that seems to have gone up 30% since your post to Tom warning him of buying in?

If one make constant supercilious and narcissistic chest banging claims on these threads, please expect scrutiny of substance, or in this case lack off.


mortal1ty28 Nov '23 - 12:29 - 7104 of 7109
0 3 1
Nice. See the difference between me and Yank is I don't hold a personal opinion on any company. I am just here to make money.


It helps being a former professional fund manager for 15 years, investing in UK small and mid-caps. You learn to be detached.

----------------------

really?

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mortal1ty15 Jun '23 - 06:04 - 26653 of 32024
0 2 0
Back to profitability. Screw you bears. Back to 5 quid.

[yankhanson] 30/11/2023 14:42

There are now so many elephants in this room that the walls are bulging. Another is the financial turn-around plan, reverting to management simulation games leveraging "Frontier's expertise and leadership in that genre"... conveniently forgetting that each one of Frontier's last three management games devastated the share price.

Motley Fool "The Frontier Developments (LSE: FDEV) share price crashed this morning, when the gaming company warned that sales of Jurassic World Evolution 2 have been “lower than expected” since its 9 November release."

Frontier stock has now lost 50% of its value since January. "


> Realms of Ruin has a current 24 DAU peak of just 179

Realms of Ruin has a current 24-hour Daily Active Users peak of just 179.

> with a rating of 68%

Down to 66% here.

[74tom] 30/11/2023 13:13

The elephant in the room is that directors haven't bought a single share since January... The CEO is on a salary of £400k PA and owns a grand total of 40k shares, having added just 10k since he took the job last year. If this is a bargain then why hasn't a PDMR upped their holdings?! It tells you everything I'm afraid.

To call Realms of Ruin a flop is a massive understatement, it's an utter disaster. The Frontier Foundry Warhammer game, Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters, has made ~$10.3m on steam & sold >300k units, average DAU's are still ~500 some 18 months after release and have never fallen below 400.

Realms of Ruin has a current 24 DAU peak of just 179 and it has trended down every day since release. It's steam revenue is just $1.5m on 30k units sold...

Who is going to buy a game costing $59.99 with a rating of 68%? Hardly anyone it turns out

[mortal1ty] 29/11/2023 07:43

Another 5% day today.

Up or down I can't tell you. Probably both at one point.

[cirlbunting1] 28/11/2023 13:12

Yh added at 152. Avg 210. That was my 3rd tranche.

[mortal1ty] 28/11/2023 12:57

Okay, up to 20%. Still the direction is positive. They can flex the exact amount depending on how trading is.

This is the same incompetent management team that successfully released Planet Coaster? Planet Zoo? JWE? and JWE2? The market's view on management competence can change quite quickly. Usually depends on how successful the last title was.

You mentioned large shareholders selling, not me. I am simply saying I don't care.

I don't need the board to be replaced as long as they have learnt their lessons.

[yankhanson] 28/11/2023 12:43

"Management are taking 20% of opex out"

Oh? Says who? Not the company RNS. It said only "up to 20%".

" "Management not addressing root cause" - They have also re-focussed back on the category they know best."

Root cause is not game category. It is incompetent management. All of whom are still in their jobs.

" "Invesco and Swedbank dumping shares" - That is up to them. These guys aren't geniuses. If they were they wouldn't have lost so much money."

Um, they lost money ONLY because FDEV's incompetent management tanked the company value. If you're saying they were wrong to buy FDEV, are you also saying they are wrong to now sell?

"As a 0.2% shareholder, please pass me all complaints, and I will take them up with the board."

Only one complaint. Board has not been replaced.

[sbb1x] 28/11/2023 12:23

Breakout above 160

[mortal1ty] 28/11/2023 12:17

As a 0.2% shareholder, please pass me all complaints, and I will take them up with the board.

[mortal1ty] 28/11/2023 12:16

Not entirely true

1)"Management not addressing root cause" - Management are taking 20% of opex out, including firing staff. You yourself complained (maybe 6 months ago) that staff were not being made redundant, and this was a black mark on management. Well they are firing staff now.

2)"Management not addressing root cause" - They have also re-focussed back on the category they know best. Their last statement was an admission of previous errors in strategy.

3)"Invesco and Swedbank dumping shares" - That is up to them. These guys aren't geniuses. If they were they wouldn't have lost so much money. The fact the shares are up today, 1 day after the warning, tells you there is demand down here. Usually shares continue to drift after profit warnings (especially in small-cap).

In fact yesterday was the biggest volume day all year. Overhangs are being cleared. New investors looking to the future, and deeply distressed value in the business.

[yankhanson] 28/11/2023 12:01

Great question john09. There will be one catalyst over the next 6 months. The January trading update. This will be another devastating profit warning, inc. a large increase in expected losses for this FY. For the reason, start with 74tom's excellent explanation above.

Until then, the share price will continue to fall, recognising that we've seen no evidence of management addressing any of the root causes of this year's 83% loss of company value, that we've seen the Realms of Ruin catastrophe deliver confirmation (if any were needed) of the utter incompetence of David Braben's management team, and that the major investors Invesco and Swedbank Robur are continuing to dump FDEV shares onto the open market and indeed following yesterday's new of the fourth major flop in a row delivering the largest project loss in the FDEV PLC's history, have dramatically increased the dump rate. See the robosell at 16h35.

[mortal1ty] 28/11/2023 11:32

Their pipeline is always 2-3 years ahead. They will have been working on the title out in FY25 for sometime already.

Also yes I expect their next title will be Planet Coaster 2. It came out in 2016, so tech has moved on quite a bit.

Leveraging of the existing game to some extent will make it easier.

[john09] 28/11/2023 11:14

There’s no way they’ll get a new game out from May. They might get one out for christmas again say November ie 12 months,. But given War Hammer took 3 years what confidence do you have they cab whack one out in a year unless its some kind of tweak on an existing format