Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[nw99] 24/7/2019 13:16

Looks like we are on a bull run

[yankhanson] 24/7/2019 10:52

hellohello100 "the most recent director buy is down" Actually all the directors buys for the last two years are down. And directors who bought at £13 aren't buying now at £9, suggesting their confidence in the company has dropped markedly.

[makw61] 24/7/2019 09:21

Frontier's market cap is a rounding error to Berkshire Hathaway so how could Warren make a meaningful investment here? Investing is definitely not a "zero sum game"; if you believe that you shouldn't be investing. The market compounds at around 7-9% pa on average (of course the average doesn't tell you much about a particular year's return), but over time it's a compounding machine.

Woodford failed because he changed his investing style from value to VC and then fell into a liquidity trap.

Agree however that Planet Zoo is a little underwhelming in terms of a new franchise and being pc only. Maybe streaming services will increase the addressable market? remains to be seen where the power lies between content provider and platform. Wasn't so good for the music publishing industry but suspect the barriers to creating good games content are much higher. ATB

[hellohello100] 24/7/2019 08:37

With that logic it would also be stupid to ignore the shorts and the people not invested in the stock.. why is Ray Dalio, Warren Buffet, Seth Klarmen not in this stock? Why don't you go and have a chat with them as too why they are soo stupid to not be in the stock ?

Why ignore it? like you said it's "imperfect but all part of a picture. Stupid would be he who ignores such information". You ignore it because of confirmation bias. You'll listen to the stuff you want to listen to.

As for director buys, the most recent director buy is down..but guess what? He/she is wealthy enough that they are probably not checking on the prices of their investments everyday. Also, why do you not question the lack of buying from the CEO or more directors? because buying fits into your bias.

How about focusing on the business itself? their strategy, what you think they are doing right/wrong?

[simonshare] 24/7/2019 07:33

Well the same could be said of director buys too!
Yes it’s imperfect but all part of a picture.
Stupid would be he who ignores such information.

[yankhanson] 24/7/2019 01:10

Endion, what the last financial results have proven is FDEV are still way short of a stable and sustainable business. E.g. the genuine earnings for the last period aren't even enough to cover the salary bill. FDEV's broker Liberum is predicting earnings down this FY and Y1 earnings from the next game down two-thirds on the previous one. Add the fact the next game is turning out not to be a new franchise as promised but just a rehash of a previous one, and we should be grateful FDEV's share price has lost only 50% on a year ago.

[hellohello100] 23/7/2019 20:03

With all respects, using "X bought the shares so they must good/right" is frankly stupid. Firstly, Swedbank has a completely different risk profile/investment strategy compared to private investors. Secondly, just because they are a big and mighty banking group doesn't mean that all their investments are right and will turn into gold..If investing were that easy we'd all be rich..
Investing is a zero sum game, for someone to win someone has to lose.
Look at Woodford...

[endion] 23/7/2019 19:27

Their business strategy is sound and is clearly working as the Financial Results have proven. True value will win out in the end, the market is always late to the party that’s all. But isn’t that the point? To find shares that are undervalued by the market and wait until true value is realised? Otherwise what’s the point.

[simonshare] 23/7/2019 19:16

Rar100 respect your post, I’m personally more optimistic

Yank maybe you should have sit down with Swedbank and tell them where their going wrong

[yankhanson] 23/7/2019 18:47

Endion, "not selling" is nothing but supposition by you. We wouldn't know unless the holding crossed a disclosing schedule.

When we do know is that if they haven't sold, they've already made a loss - measured by the subsequent shareprice fall.

[rar100] 23/7/2019 18:44

I guess that Swedbank see the share price low, and as this has been a cyclical share insofar as when a new game comes out the share price goes up, but then the next year doesn't have a new game, the share price goes down. So last revenue was 34mil (2018), The next - Sept '19. results projection 83 mil (2020 results drop down to 68).

That's the ONLY reason I'm holding.

Maybe at this share price it is a good bet, that come Sept. the share price will rise dramatically, if I wasn't already invested, I'd maybe bet on it with throw away money, but I just want to cut losses if I can and forget FDEV, I have zero confidence in them and their business strategy. So does the market hence the low volumes.

The existing products maybe fine, but there seems to be nothing really new, same old doesn't inspire...

[simonshare] 23/7/2019 18:19

I was referring to millions spent. Agree was unclear.
But they have just topped up over 2 million quids worth on top of existing holding.
And it was on RNS.

Anyway endions post summed it up

[endion] 23/7/2019 17:59

Fact is they are buying more, and not selling.

[yankhanson] 23/7/2019 14:12

Mark4231, I agree about the existing Swedbank holding. But keep in mind that lot of that was bought from FDEV board members direct, not through the market, and at a price significantly below the market price at the time and significantly below the market price now.

[mark4231] 23/7/2019 13:12

YankHanson, here is a sentence that I thought I would never write, you are right! :-)

Swedbank recently bought roughly 263297 shares (my calculation), so not millions, although they do have millions if you take into account their previously existing holding.

[yankhanson] 23/7/2019 12:53

"Swedbank just brought a few million shares"

That's rubbish. If Swedbank had just bought a few million shares it would be disclosed on RNS. It hasn't been.

[davr0s] 23/7/2019 06:51

I trade and I don't look at the news, brokers, forecasts - a lot of it is complete noise. If price drops below my exit point I'm out without hesitation. Yeah we've got a retrace in but if you zoom out it's not unusual price action for this share atm

[davr0s] 23/7/2019 06:48

Nope shares can move for all sorts of reasons

[simonshare] 23/7/2019 06:34

Swedbank just brought a few million shares, I’m sure they did their due diligence!

Part of the problem of share that had a glory high....was people buying high.
Every time the price moves up they sell to exit at less of a loss.
I think you 2 fall into this category.
When those investors are gone we will see some 14-15 levels later in the year.

This share calls for patience....it has an amazing line up over the next 2/3 years.

If you think otherwise why not sell your position.

[rar100] 22/7/2019 18:57

davros,

You are so wrong, this dog needs good news, it's the absolute worst share I have ever had. If this is such a good company why are not the directors buying at such low levels.

this board just comes across as a gamers board, not an investors.

The paltry volumes of trade say it all and the charts amplify it, I think it's down 18% over one year.

I'm holding only to not crystalise the loss, October may be better but whatever happens I'll be out of this dog.

[davr0s] 22/7/2019 18:43

No it's not - share prices don't need news to move

[discodave4] 22/7/2019 18:28

At this rate if no news before Oct it's back to c 800.....I hold but this is by far the worst in my PF, time to call it a day me thinks.

[ck1111] 15/7/2019 21:44

David Braben interview

hxxps://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2019-07-10-david-braben-now-is-the-best-time-to-make-your-game

[mark4231] 11/7/2019 13:00

Only person talking nonsense is you YankHanson.