Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[baggymiggins] 30/6/2018 23:52

An Elite Dangerous card game has appeared on Kickstarter under licence from Frontier Developments. It's already fully funded after one day.

It says "Elite: Dangerous Battle Cards is a two player, expandable card game that allows you to battle entire fleets of ships in the Elite: Dangerous universe."

Interesting.

[endion] 30/6/2018 23:49

It was on LSE, though that site has been terrible recently so I wouldnt be suprised if it was innacurate.

[nimbo1] 30/6/2018 21:36

Now at number 1 across amazon PlayStation - us, Germany and uk - good effort.

[scooper72] 30/6/2018 17:50

Endion - where do you get 162 p/e for KWS ? Stockopedia which is usually quite reliable has it at 39.6 on 12 month rolling. Hargreaves Lansdown which is much less reliable still only has it on 96, so still along way from 162. The thing about keywords is that as they service all the big game producers with work that they want to outsource they are in quite a nice spot benefiting from the growing gaming market but with less risk in terms of whether individual titles are a Big hit or not. Bought my first few fdev a few weeks ago and down about 20 percent. Didn't buy much, but wish I had started buying in when I first started looking at them 6 months ago. My kids don't seem too interested in the JWE, but then they are just a bit obsessed with fortnight

[endion] 30/6/2018 15:17

To be honest, short term i would be happy with a £15-£16 share price until news of jwe unit sales is released.

The p/e ratio to this years earnings could be a thorn, unless unit sales figures can prove that this will be maintained and justified in the coming year. If you look at KWS their p/e ratio is a ludicrous 162.32. This os based mostly on their aquisitions and prospects of future growth. If fdev can show that future earnings will be solid, a higher p/e ratio has a better chance of being maintained.

And you are absolutely right that we should be looking at least a year ahead. A little hard without knowing what the fourth franchise will be, as has been said before on this thread.

And from this year onward i expect one game a year to be the standard. The fourth franchise i expect to be released next q3. Just over a year after jwe.

But we will find out with time. Investing is so much patience. If you've done your research and know where this company is headed then you wont be worried, despite current market sentiment.

[drofdavid] 30/6/2018 06:39

A few thoughts:

1. P/E ratio is going to look very high when 2018 profit figure is used against share price
2. Day-to-day share price does not matter too much to the company unless they are needing to issue more shares for an acquisition (I hope not)
3. We have to be patient with news from the company. We can speculate on JWE sales numbers but should not get carried away.
4. We should not expect RNS's just because some shareholders are upset at a share-price fall
5. If we believe in what the company are doing, we should be looking ahead, at least by 1 year, probably 2 years (or more)
6. The market will be wanting a steady flow of profit from an increasing number of successful games

[nimbo1] 30/6/2018 06:04

There is really nothing to worry about - (of course I understand the annoyance and frustration in 'losing paper profit' or being down on an initial entry) - FDEV in JWE have produced a game of global interest and its selling well. We can only deal with the evidence in front of us.

On amazon.

USA - PS4, No 2. XBOX, No. 3.
Germany - PS4, No 3. XBOX, No. 2.
UK - PS4, No 2, XBOX, No. 2.

Perhaps the market is spooked by the revenue fall (can't believe it myself as this was forecast to happen 12 months ago) but there are many ignorant market participants out there so who knows. If 'profits falling' headlines leads to negative sentiment you can be sure at the interims 'profits rising by 500-1000% + will have a similar reverse effect.

I believe FDEV should have provided their detailed road map for company title release aims and that probably would have lead to a stronger share price as the growth trajectory would be in black and white rather than subjective depending on whether you have faith in them as a business and David Braben as a leader. But it won't matter medium term.

[endion] 30/6/2018 01:10

Putting the telegraph article into context. The previous years revenue was £37.4m, current years revenue is forecast to be £34m. So, whilst obviously not growing (due to no new games released that year) it is hardly a massive fall in revenue. £3.4 million, that's a fall of 9.09%. Profit margins however have decreased, largely due to development costs of Jurassic World Evolution. This is entirely expected by those of us who have been following the company for a while and strikes a few of us I imagine as saying, "well... Duh!" Without meaning to sound immature of course.

JWE looks to increase profits in the region of £20-£40m. Which is 10 to 20 times the profit from the current year. Obviously we need a longer term, visible plan to allow the market to trust this growth can be sustained, but I have trust that Fdev can deliver.

[endion] 29/6/2018 23:54

Vgchartz does sometimes produce contradictory info, but I'll take a look, thanks! I remember a forum where EA had announced unit sales for one of the Sims games at around 5m, whereas vgchartz still only had it circa 2m. This particular avenue may be a dead end.

[ck1111] 29/6/2018 22:44

Endion


hxxp://www.vgchartz.com/

gives physical sales, last update for Railway Empire was Jan 7th 2018 but states release was Jan 30th 2018 ??

0.02m / 0.01m / 0.00m for Xboxone / PS4 / PC

not sure that helps

[discodave4] 29/6/2018 22:25

Thanks endion.Seemed to have gotten way ahead of itself IMO, just didnt expect such a drop, doesn't normally pan out like that for me!.Good luck.DD

[endion] 29/6/2018 22:14

Changing topic slightly but am doing some research and have hit a wall. Does anyone know, or know where to find, unit sales for Railway Empire on consoles? It was a sim/management game released by Kalypso, the makers of the Tropico franchise, and it was released simultainsiouly on PC/PS4/XBOX. It would be interesting to see their sales ratios. On steam spy they have only sold 88,000 untis on pc so their figures will be far lower, however it could provide a little insight.

[mark4231] 29/6/2018 21:16

rar100/douglas fir - you may be right that the trading statement as referenced in the Telegraph article has played its part in the share price fall. However I think the bulls on here (of which I am definitely one) fully expected that statement and it was of completely no surprise (in fact it was a nice surprise, not as bad as expected!). During the last financial year FDEV didn't release any new games so revenue only came from the existing games. Going forward FDEV have a plan to release roughly one game a year and so the spike in revenue from a new game will be present every financial year therefore smoothing things out. Please do pick holes in the bulls opinions though - this thread has been great with different opinions on where FDEV are going, wildy different estimates for units sold and a future share price, plus occasional comments to bring us down to earth.

[endion] 29/6/2018 20:41

Rar100, i agree that it is worth having a full and honest view of a company. Most of the speculation here is fairly bullish, with quiet justification, but also because so many of the broker forecasts are so conservative. Why just re-iterate what they have already shown? Better to show what can happen should market expectations be beaten, which they will be. I do hope that you make a profit out of this, depends if you are a trader or an investor though. If you are an investor you will make a profit. Of that I have no doubt. As a trader, its hard to say.

And yes disco it would seem that you were prudent to wait in this instance! Second guessing short term trends is nigh on impossible on aim, more of a gamble than anything. Glad you are able to get a lower entry at least!

[gokarna97] 29/6/2018 20:23

Endion (+bamboo2) - many thanks for your response to my shorting question, I agree with your insights. Having watched the share in detail over the past 2 weeks I can't help but feel that actions are taken (often late in the day) to depress the price / panic pi's. I must say that I'm very new to investing (only 1 month or so!!!) and, after much research, I bought into FDEV, KWS and WAND .... looking at all three shares and trying to understand the share price action / MM pricing my conclusion is that I understand KWS and WAND share price movements but something is just different about FDEV at present ... hence my shorting question to all you experts on this thread! Still, I totally believe in FDEV growth scenario for the long term and thanks to all on this thread for educating me a bit!

[rar100] 29/6/2018 20:11

Well I certainly didn't see that Telegraph article about FDEV, I wish I had...but certainly explains the share price drop to me. It's been compounded by the general Tech sell off also of course. I'm pleased that Douglas Fir posted it.
I like to know the negative aspects to FDEV as well as the good, ie. a balanced view or views. This thread is a little too ra ra, often way too ra ra imho.
I'll wait for results and any more forward guidance from the co. before selling at a loss, I can wait it out.
I'm hoping it will come right soonish, but it's just that, a hope at present.

[discodave4] 29/6/2018 20:10

Hi endion,Glad I didnt hurry to buy as suggested, and after a couple of weeks I am still waiting for my dip to finish :)Sure it will bounce soon, probably before I try a cheeky £13 order.GLDD

[endion] 29/6/2018 19:47

£18 was above every broker forecast. Well above many, only finncap had 17.60,others still had 15.40 or lower. To spike to above forecast levels quickly is to draw the eyes of the vammpires, ready to suck it back down.

For a bit of context, a short of 0.5% would mean 193,300 shares were being sold. At current prices thats a value of over £2m.

[makw61] 29/6/2018 19:44

Seems a strange choice of share to short from a risk:reward ratio. The free float is pretty small and the shares have the ability to gap up sharply without any chance of closing out a position. One hypothetical example - franchise four is in full development, Frontier release a teaser trailer over a weekend, the market loves it, the shares are sharply higher at open Monday morning and buying back the position simply drives it up further. How can anyone evaluate that risk? Ditto release of a positive trading statement.

If these guys are market timers then they are either very good or very lucky IMO. We know the fundamentals look pretty good, there are no problems with the balance sheet, accounting looks conservative, management appear stable and respected, the product is real - you can buy it and play it. We don't know any hard sales figures but there are plenty of third party sites such as Steam, PS store etc that show it selling well. Just doesn't strike me as a typical shorter's share, but maybe i'm a crazed bull? GLA

[endion] 29/6/2018 18:57

From my understanding the shares do not have to be sold onto market immediately, though please correct me if I am wrong. They borrow the shares initially, and can then sell them onto the market as they please, usually in tranches. As long as they give all initial shares back at the close of the deal the inbetween part is up to them.

Given current market sentiment and the steep recent rise, it would have been a savvy, if underhand move. Wait for the drop, give it more momentum by dumping shares, scare off investors, especially those who bought in on the recent rise, and supress the share price hoping to find a low to buy back.

[endion] 29/6/2018 18:57

I was thinking along similar lines bamboo. The sudden drop from bid to ask throughout the day, despite very little selling pressure, suggests someone undercutting and dumping shares. Its only a theory though so DYOR.

[bamboo2] 29/6/2018 18:54

I know very little, but would be interested to know more, about the practicalities of the Bennbridge short.

Is the notification telling us they have both borrowed and sold into the market, or that they have borrowed stock, ready to sell into the market?

Given the price action over recent days it looks to me like the latter is happening. They are waiting until buyers have done their buying before launching another batch of fresh sells. There seems to have been an increase in selling after 4pm, apparently to try to 'paint the tape' with another lower eod close.

[endion] 29/6/2018 18:54

Well,it would be hard to say conclusively one way or the other if there was something going on in relation to the short position. They only opened it recently and can be held for years. However, if fdev does as well as we all expect it to, this low will probably be as low as it will ever see again. If i was them i would cash out and be happy with those profits. But then you cant account for greed! There is only one disclosed short position, any below 0.5 do not need to be declared, as such their leverage on the share price should be minimal.

I would guess they have taken a look at the financial numbers for the year, concluded like the above article that it is not going to be doing well because of it, and figured £18 was overpriced for that. Unfortunately the market currently agreed with them. But then how many on the market understand anything to do with the gaming sector? Or that fdev have released games on a biannual basis and as such revenue reduces on the years betwe3n, a natural flow that does nothing to hinder its growth. We'll just have to wait for the market to catch up.

[ck1111] 29/6/2018 18:07

Like others here I've been playing a bit of JWE. If you haven't, try and get a go of it.

More than anything else this tells me FDEV will continue to grow. Just as when I played Elite Dangerous and Planet Coaster.

JWE is even more accessible - you can put in 10mins or several hours.

And as Williemanjaro's article touches on, Frontier's games have a huge life - they will be played - and will keep selling - for years :)