Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[nimbo1] 03/7/2018 08:55

Worth mentioning David Braben likes to be incredibly conservative, he told me so. (It’s great having a likeable, decent and visionary ceo As the companies largest shareholder). It’s why fdev beats expectations. To upgrade this early means only one thing...They’ll be upgraded again.

[discodave4] 03/7/2018 08:48

Top end rev I make it about 50p eps.

[sogoesit] 03/7/2018 08:42

Which makes 44p EPS .... no way!!!

[hastings] 03/7/2018 08:36

Liberum upgraded numbers

[shanklin] 03/7/2018 08:31

hastings

How did you calculate a forward P/E of 35 please?

[hastings] 03/7/2018 08:25

After today's upgrade and the share price movement we stand on a PER of 35!
With net cash expected at £35m and the potential for further upgrades and positive news the journey continues.

[sogoesit] 03/7/2018 08:14

Note the use of the plural in “future franchises in development”.

[adamb1978] 03/7/2018 08:13

One other comment in the RNS: "and we will continue to explore other models to accelerate our scale-up."

Which to me sounds like acquisitions. Shouldn't be a bad thing and presume they're mainly focussed on acqui-hire type acquisitions, rather than buying other game developers

[adamb1978] 03/7/2018 08:10

Think EPS of around £1 is now very likely for FY20, so a share price of say £25-£30 within the next 12 months is also highly likely

[sogoesit] 03/7/2018 08:09

Ha, this board seems to have been ahead of the game... great research and discussion guys!
Expect another update at Results on 5th September.
Upwards and onwards!

[hpcg] 03/7/2018 08:06

mf - yes, for software margin increases with every unit sale. That is why it makes sense to model the fixed cost and the revenue line ex relevant unit cost.

Decent open, lets see how the day develops.

[haggishunter] 03/7/2018 08:06

now that's an opening.

[adamb1978] 03/7/2018 08:06

EPS of 60p - 75p, depending on your measure of EPS and interpretation of 'upper end of...range'

[kamitora] 03/7/2018 07:55

Peel Hunt reiterates buy this morning, finnCap maintain 'Corporate' (previous target 1750), Liberum reiterate buy (previous target 1800)

[mad foetus] 03/7/2018 07:41

I wonder how any increase in turnover relates to profits. Presumably, other than the royalty payment, costs are fixed and so every sale drops straight to the bottom line?

[makw61] 03/7/2018 07:39

Not often you see a positive TU after only one month of the FY, absolutely terrific. Wonder if the shorters will cover now?

Like the bit about continuing "to explore other models to accelerate our scale-up", shows the ambition is there to be a really significant player.

[rivaldo] 03/7/2018 07:22

Terrific news. That's all we could ask for at this early stage - and gives room for FDEV to issue further forecast-beating updates as the period progresses.

And FDEV are keeping their ammo nicely dry, with hints about the "future franchises" and more news to come:

"I look forward to providing updates on our future plans in due course."

[square1] 03/7/2018 07:20

TU leaves plenty of room to upgrade to trading ahead of expectations, particularly as they are only one month into financial tear.

[hastings] 03/7/2018 07:16

Echo the comments on research from posters here top notch, as with the TU which puts FDEV in a great place.

[panic investor] 03/7/2018 07:16

Not just one future franchise then ......We already have future franchises in different phases of internal development

[shanklin] 03/7/2018 07:10

Yep, glad that having sold out completely, I changed my mind based mainly on posts here and now have a position 36% larger than when i sold out. Thank you all.

[allstar4eva] 03/7/2018 07:07

Trading update! Confirms sales expectations expressed on this bb. Great research guys.

[endion] 03/7/2018 00:23

Planet Coaster back to no.12 on UK Steam Bestsellers.

[endion] 02/7/2018 17:49

Also, it seems that games in the sim/management genre, for some reason, have a higher twitch follower to unit sales ratio.

Cities Skylines: x20.5

Stellaris: x19.98

Civ 6: x16.82

Civ 5: x62.25

Rome 2 Total War: x69.55

As opposed to FPS or similar like Farcry and action games. Another example:

Call of Duty WW2: x1.68

Good to bounce numbers off each other though!

[mark4231] 02/7/2018 17:16

That's very true about Planet Coaster having the beta phase - good news for JWE sales then, the above estimate is likely to pessimistic.

Will be interesting to see how JWE does when the Steam sale ends.

Oops, sorry nimbo - will go back and edit my previous post to remove misleading comparison.