Frontera Share Discussion Threads

[wshak] 11/10/2018 15:25

thefozzer,

What will the share price do, if the RNS says:

"FRR is pleased to announce a joint venture with EXXON whereby EXXON commits to spending up to $20m on Taribani in exchange for a 70% working interest"?

Years ago, BHP did something similar for FOGL, whereby the read across value was a fifth of the market valuation.

What happened after that?

[thefozzer] 11/10/2018 14:41

Come on Loggy, don't be down. You're better than this.

I appreciate old shareholders carried the can for years gone by but for the past 5 years or so the market could buy under 1p. What do you think, for example, the share price will be on a RNS with the words "FRR is pleased to announce a joint venture with EXXON"?

My guess is the share price will go well over a penny.

[loglorry1] 11/10/2018 14:28

201.9999999 TCFs left in the ground so far at a cost of $400m. It's an attractive proposition !

[thefozzer] 11/10/2018 14:03

Thanks Skipper, I'll start looking at Total.

Loggy, do keep up I'm getting a bit concerned for you. Ud2 served its purpose, the super major (maybe Exxon) liked what they saw and now it's down to commercial discussions.

[buffskins] 11/10/2018 13:43

202 TCF of Gas is insane....

put into perspective the UK consumes about 3TCF a year!!

[buffskins] 11/10/2018 13:30

from LSE:

Thanks for posting this re BP
Just a couple of points BP have had 60$ a barrel for quite some time but of course this is an expected target over a considerable period of time and of course the key point is anything over $40 a barrel then comes a profit. Therefore you may have noticed that BP have been selling expensive assets to produce or near end of life fields in BP's terms as they think of the whole process from out the ground to retail sales and every point in between. it is why they are known a vertically aligned Company and a major and about to be redefined as super major. Bp as a result selling assets and not at least in principle to cover deep water Horzon is in effect putting money in the bank to buy more efficient assets as replacements and they have money in bank so to speak on previous sales and some others are near completion. Dudley has also stated that they do not intend to increase CAPEX and will keep within there already stated CAPEX for the foreseeable future and in effect are looking for fields both oil and gas that need further development using there world leading expertise. BP went the other way a few years ago for as opposed to going for easy oil ( so to speak) which most of the majors did they invested in perhaps the largest Computer system so as to model better and quicker so in effect they could get every ounce of oil and gas out of a field without the need for new exploration or purchase of fields.

Why is this POSSIBLY relevant to us? in simple terms we have undeveloped field which will need further modeling and it is relativity cheap to get out the ground so BP are a possible fit in terms of some of the strategic objectives of BP HOWEVER there are limitations. Dudley is very clear that BP will NOT break its capex budget lines and as such what we believe to be in the ground and commercial would be a bit of a stretch for BP to go for a whole field development. However there is always the possibility of an exception and it would have to be a bloody good one and of course we have been told at the last meeting indirectly by Zaza at the last meeting of what he believes to be the size of the field . I will leave it to others to state as to the quality of the field as I am no expert but it would need to be both for BP to sniff and for a lot of other things to all fit around in my view.

At the end of the day it does not matter who we are involved with as long as it actually happens personally I hope that it is BP as I am long on BP and if they take a big punt on us this will affect BP's price as well and in a positive way as well but that is just a personal wish as we all will know more than the average punter about the field and it capabilities and adjust our decision making accordingly re other investments.
Just a bit of waffle for me as I had a spare moment!

[thefozzer] 11/10/2018 12:52

Well said Skipper ref Ud2.

ENI is just a guess, I know they were involved in the Shah Deniz field next door and wider Caspian area.

Have you got any web links ref Total?

Cheers

[the skipper] 11/10/2018 12:47

Ud2 was not a failure. The State Agencies came along and monitored the quality of the gas which was flowing and certified that it was suitable to go into the distribution system. Exxon or whoever is looking at the the Mtsare Khevi field will have recognised that its ability to flow at a sustainable commercial rate was highly constrained by a dodgy Soviet era well bore and cement job. That will certainly not put them off from wanting to drill new wells here or sidetrack UD2 and they will have been encouraged by the recent gas discovery below the oil in Taribani.

Not sure why you are banging on about ENI though fozzy. I think Total are likely to be the second Super Major given the way the French have recently been cozying up to the Georgian Government and throwing money at them.

[thefozzer] 11/10/2018 12:07

I don't recall FRR ever drilling for deep gas other than Ud2 do you Loggy?

Well whatever, it seems that ud2 may have been enough for a Super Major to stump up the cash for a oil and gas campaign in 2019. We'll see though, the fat lady is yet to sing and this is still highly speculative.

[thefozzer] 11/10/2018 12:04

Well Loggy,

Maybe you could ask those drillers in the West Texas Permian basin why it took them so long to make the fields work again?

I think little ol FRR have done very well considering the size of B12.

Not long to go for you, mid Nov at a guess.

[loglorry1] 11/10/2018 12:00

FRR have sunk about $400m into B12. The data FRR must have will be vast and extensive.
------------------

LOL over 12 years or so yes and how much oil has all this valuable data produced. Sweet Foxtrot Oscar!

Oh yeah sorry its because they forgot to drill a bit deeper and now they've found the right zone.

Come off it!

[tune player] 11/10/2018 11:51

Correct, Exxon is being touted by the Georgian govenment when talking about Georgia being a good place for investment.

Down down doubling down....

Big mistake??? Only time will tell.


Nearly Xmas Loggy so plenty of relationship strife to help you pay IG what you’ll be owning them.

Down down doubling down....I’m sure there a song in there somewhere.


Hahahahaha comedy gold

[thefozzer] 11/10/2018 11:48

Tickboo.

FRR have sunk about $400m into B12. The data FRR must have will be vast and extensive.

I don't know how many blocks are currently free in Georgia but I'm betting the best have gone to Repsol, Schlumberger and yes you guessed it little ol FRR.

Zaza said the next gas well would have commercial flow rates. If this is true and Exxon (for example) have seen the surveys to indicate this is true then Exxon will be very interested in B12s gas potential.

Why wouldn't they be? Pipelines all in place and ready access to the huge European markets. All fits with US energy policy for the region.

Rex Tillerson ex secretary of state for the USA gov used to be Exxon's CEO.

It's all politics the oil game.

[tickboo] 11/10/2018 11:39

To be fair we know for a fact Exxon had a meeting with the Georgians as posted on the gov website so they're certainly interested in hydrocarbons in the country it's a question of where. A new block or a JV or the like?

[thefozzer] 11/10/2018 11:37

Tune.

I'm 99.9% certain of Exxon too.

The timing of that visit fits, Exxon a US Texas based company same as FRR and the more important factor. Geo politics and the US policy of weaning Europe off Russian gas.

It's happening. Waited long enough eh!!!

[thefozzer] 11/10/2018 11:35

Mick,

Unfortunately that is partially the case. Although I'd park that analogy more towards the Steve era. I wouldn't be too harsh on Steve though as we will never really know what malevolent entities he may have been up against.

I thought we were going under at one point...what a turnaround!!! Go Zaza. Single malt on the way to you for Christmas Sir.

[mick1909] 11/10/2018 11:29

Is this simular to the story the boy who cried wolf Zaza is the boy who claimed big things and excellent flow rates where nothing happens year in year out then when it is happening no one still beileves him as shown in the share price then out of no where 2 super majors come along and gobble little frr for a nice return 10p/shareThe End

[thefozzer] 11/10/2018 11:27

I think the market may hear of a JV or FO with the super major as early as mid Nov.

Just a guess I'm thinking Exxon, BP or ENI.

[thefozzer] 11/10/2018 11:17

So, someone has gone to the site and spoken to management. That's it
---------------------------------

Spoken with such authority Wshak. What do you think the super majors did during their "extended" site surveys and management meetings? How much detail do you want FRR to give during this highly sensitive time?

The term borrowed time comes to mind when I think of shorters now. Or should I say borrowed stock?

[thefozzer] 11/10/2018 11:11

WShak,

Sarcasm is not a productive quality to bring to a serious discussion regarding FRR. I respect that you're emotional attached to this stock so I understand the passion you have.

I was in the room, Zaza did duck some questions and he went round the houses on others. It was very clear he was being very straight with regards to the two Super Majors. Like I said, one to one I can generally tell if people are actively lying.

So unless Zaza is a world class actor up there with Gary Oldham and Al Pacino then he was telling the truth about the super major deal being imminent.

I appreciate it's not want you want to hear but its happening.

[wshak] 11/10/2018 11:07

thefozzer,

This is what was said by FRR:

"Whilst these discussions are at an early stage, they have taken a significant step forward with both interested parties having attended extended site surveys and management meetings."

So, someone has gone to the site and spoken to management. That's it.

Has there been further progress? Even BPC had a major giving them $250K/month for exclusivity whilst they chatted. They walked away, obviously, but they were more serious.

Have the majors even asked for exclusivity? No.