Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Frontera Resources Corporation LSE:FRR London Ordinary Share KYG368131069 ORD SHS USD0.00004 (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.0175p -2.83% 0.60p 0.59p 0.61p 0.63p 0.595p 0.63p 83,934,325 15:13:54
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 2.5 -19.1 0.3 2.0 86.99

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Date Time Title Posts
17/11/201718:55FRONTERA AND BEYOND7,004
25/10/201716:43Frontera Resources - Marching Through Georgia73
02/10/201717:53The Simon Cawkwell FRR Ј20 a share thread18
14/7/201513:10Frontera - troll-free thread16,583
20/11/201315:00Frontera Resources Plc - Potential Caspian Giant1,611

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Frontera Daily Update: Frontera Resources Corporation is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker FRR. The last closing price for Frontera was 0.62p.
Frontera Resources Corporation has a 4 week average price of 0.51p and a 12 week average price of 0.09p.
The 1 year high share price is 0.88p while the 1 year low share price is currently 0.06p.
There are currently 14,497,798,708 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 74,928,641 shares. The market capitalisation of Frontera Resources Corporation is £86,986,792.25.
nobull: telbap, google "commodity price leverage". The oil price is at a 2 year high according to the business section of the Daily Telegraph website this morning. It is perfectly reasonable that FRR should go up (small reduction in anticipated losses has to be incorporated into the share price, if the market is to be efficient at pricing anticipated cash flows). FRR is also financially leveraged, so the effect is even greater. I doubt the market has any personal dislike of WShak, loglorry or anybody else. It just reacts to oil price changes. If you think high share price volatility is a sign of a good company to be invested in and you are not too fussed about the difference between exploration and production licenses and you don't mind the management blurring the difference, and you don't mind long winded RNSs that describe in mind boggling detail why they fail to generate revenue, then this is obviously the stock for you. Good luck.
nobull: Tickboo, which RNS or prospectus says the production sharing agreement is 25 years from the time something is declared commercial? Such news would be so very share price sensitive that it would be against the listing rules not to announce it. Which RNS are you thinking of? The prospectus says the production sharing agreement ends in November 2027, and that is only if the 5 year extension is granted. The last RNS, as others have commented, was carefully worded to fool people who don't know the difference between exploration and production licenses: one license type saves the Georgian govt. money, while the other allows a cash leakage out of the Georgian economy (repatriation of profits). I believe the use of the new terminology, "study program", was to confuse people to make it easier to sell more shares. At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, FRR is essentially a share selling business masquerading as a bona fide oil and gas explorer/developer.
mick1909: Very interesting. Thanks for the info. So basically, it sounds to me like they're estimating to have about 5 zones, at around 4-5 MMcf/D each. So whereas their original estimate for the flow rate potential at Ud-2 was for 10-20 MMcf/d, that appears to have now been bumped up into the 20-25 MMcf/d range. If those are the rates they get, I think that would be an excellent result, and should be more than enough to demonstrate the commercial potential of the project. As far as potential valuation, here's my quick take on it: If we put aside any gas potential at Taribani, or elsewhere in Block 12, and just look at the MK area where they're currently working, they suggest that almost 6 Tcf of gas could be recoverable in this region. Perhaps a good starting place for valuing 'discovered resources' may be in the range of around $2 per barrel of oil equivalent. I base this on other sales in recent years, including working interest sell-offs of Shah Deniz by both TOTAL and Statoil. It's not completely an apples to apples comparison, since Shah Deniz is further down the road of development, but I think this is somewhat countered by Block 12 being onshore, in an arguably more favorable country for investment, plus having other wells previously drilled and able to be re-entered, and having an already well developed infrastructure in place, including both domestic and export pipelines. So all together, I think a Net Present Value (NPV) of around $2 per barrel of oil equivalent for actual discovered resources is a reasonable starting point at this time. And once these resources are further proven up as P1/P2, they would likely get an even higher valuation. 6 tcf, the current estimate of potentially recoverable gas in the MK area, is roughly equal to 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe). So, at $2 per boe, that would give the MK gas an approximate current valuation of $2 Billion, which would equate to an FRR share price of roughly 10p. And again, this would just be based on the MK gas, and wouldn't include gas from Taribani or other areas of Block 12. It also wouldn't include the oil. So therefore, with successful testing at Ud-2, I could see the market begin to re-rate FRR towards an initial valuation of 10p, based solely upon the MK gas alone, whatever speculative value the market places on additional Block 12 prospective resources. just my opinion
tickboo: JakNife, you obviously have an agenda here, do you have a short on the go? I hope so as if not you're another saddo with little to do if you're spending time on BBs and the like talking down PLCs. I doubt you're here for the greater good so you have a short. I'm holding here and am not telling anyone to buy as anyone listening to a random punter on a BB needs their head looking at. The CEO just put another £1m into the company. After years of missed targets and disappointment FRR seems to have finally turned a corner and if ud-2 is a success and can deliver 5-15 scuffs it'll be a game changer both revenue wise and improve the already impressive CPR. Reserves can be booked so balance sheet improved, revenue a lot better and FRR is a strong position re a JV. Still risky as if it's a failuer the share price will no doubt fall a lot but at leas the oil play is now in play and fully funded so there's contingency. I think FRR is in the strongest position it ever has been.
loglorry1: I don't think Yara will want to allow SEDA before their Convertible is totally converted. I suspect that we'll see a relaxation of the restriction of the amount of convertible that can be done before June 2018. The company will claim that due to the rise in share price and the ability to convert at higher prices e.g. 0.47p (last time) it makes sense for both parties. That is probably a quid pro quo for Yara giving them a higher conversion price than the discounted 10 day VWAP as per the terms. Then obviously Yara will have carte blanche to smash the share price again using the CBs. As you say though that doesn't bring in any cash. They had $57K at end of 2017H1 and raised £500K post close. However cash out flow was around $5m per half year (using the 2017H1 numbers) so all that will have been spent and you have the work over to pay for. Even with a decent flow result it will need further appraisal before the spend on a pipeline and the company just has no funds for that either. Longer term you still have an enormous bond to pay off in 2020 and the significant license risk on Block 12 only a month and a half away. EDIT: Sorry its not discounted 10 day VWAP the exact terms are :- "The price at which Frontera Cayman will issue shares to YAGM will be 95% of the lowest daily volume weighted average price of the shares during the 10 consecutive trading days beginning on the first trading day after the relevant Advance Notice (the "Pricing Period"). "
researchanalyst1: JakNife, if the stock market was the perfect arbiter of value, then anomalies such as Frontera just wouldn’t occur. The reality is, the stock market is often wrong, and sometimes very wrong. The reasons can be many. But human psychology and poorly informed participants are often the causes. This is not always a bad thing as it creates substantial opportunities for the savvy investor – who rushes in to snap up decent companies that are grossly mispriced (when the company’s share price does not match the value of the underlying business…) by the market. JakNife, Howard Stanley Marks, the serial value investor and founder of the multibillion, wealth management firm Oaktree Capital Management, once opined that: "All intelligent investing is value investing; acquiring an asset for less than its value means seeing what everyone else sees and thinking what no one else thinks." JakNife, prior to any announcement, Frontera’s share price should be trading at 1.76p on the appraised value of its current portfolio. To this end, the market has grossly mispriced the stock and this should present a spectacular opportunity for patient investors willing to exploit this market anomaly. And should an announcement be dropped this week, expect the share price to ruthlessly multibag. Thus, I have only two words: OBSCENE UPSIDE.
tickboo: To be honest they should have done this a while ago. Now SN and Zaza are properly aligned I assume they don't want more and more dilution over and above existing authorised headroom. I assume they'll want a result on the udabno drill, get the share price higher before diluting for working capital. Zaza over here again next week so the approach is going to remain which bodes well. If udabno is a result this will be massive and a genuine game changer - heard that before but I think Zaza is focusing on short term revenue and getting the share price up.
dodge city: You can imagine what a $5mill fund raising is going to do to the share price. No wonder the share price is falling. This could easily go sub 0p.
nobull: "If you have questions about the geology then look at the updated presentation on the Frontera web site. You might find it answers a lot of questions." The only thing the geology has yielded in Georgia FOR SHAREHOLDERS (as opposed to for the host government) is a small amount of commercial gas sales, and these are too small to keep the cost of capital low enough to have a viable business, and in any case because of the high cost of capital, these revenues get sucked off by salaries and death spiral financiers first. As long as Nicandros talks about adding "value creation INITIATIVES" and "value POTENTIAL", you know he has no interest in creating or adding VALUE (one adds bets for the CEO to take, while the other gets the share price up)- I switched off the presentation as soon as I heard "value creation initiative". I have no idea if the 'conference call' was a monologue again or not or whether the presentation was full of talk about "technical successes" (non value adding type of success) but if the VCIs had 100% chance of failure, Nicandros would be in jail. If they have only a 0.5% chance of success, then Nicandros is a law abiding citizen. I imagine if the latter is true, then to go on selling new shares you have to downplay or hide the low probability of success where the probability is a combined one that includes both the geology and the behaviour of the Georgian Govt., things FOF does not ask technical questions about. I still own my shares, but I have never felt more disillusioned with Nicandros. He is not a fraudster, but is the closest thing to it you can be, without actually being one, at least while he continues to avoid proper shareholder accountability and while he continues to talk "technical success" and "addition of value POTENTIAL". Nobody knows better than he does the real chances of success and ,that once the Georgian exploration licenses expire the loss of past exploration expenditure is crystallised for even the most rose tinted investors (Devex, Mole, SB) (even if the accounting policies long ago recognised the same expenditure as a loss). What happens when the Georgian exploration license expires? Nicandros has shipped in a whole load of replacement bets (Moldova), which leaves the company no nearer to the commercial success it craved in 2005 (the share price has already discounted all that, with its £1.50 to 0.3p move). Only a complete shareholder rebellion will make Nicandros change his behaviour. With plenty of people around to submit tame questions, the chances of that are slim. Avoid, despite even a share selling 'business' offering what traders need, share price volatility, as there must be better chances of success with genuine oil and gas explorer developers. AIMO. DYOR.
nobull: The Skipper, many thanks for that. It doesn't make much difference whether I vote in favour or not (holding too small). I do see from your answer that it is in my interests to vote "yes", and that it is unreasonable not to, but it is also unreasonable to let FRR work at a snail's pace and pretend that our cost of capital doesn’t matter (it never discusses this) (current liabilities exceeding current assets wasn't my main concern, the topic the Nomad assured you about? – I just assumed, unwisely perhaps, that our BOD would issue itself a load more 15% interest bearing RPNs to pay for ones maturing about now). My concern is the HIGH COST OF CAPITAL (particularly those convertibles), because if you don’t have cheap finance, you have less chance of ever being a viable business, and a greater concern is the fact that the BOD doesn’t appear to be in the least bit concerned about this at all. If the BOD have a sure fire plan, with detailed steps I can put ticks against, to get the cost of capital down, then why not tell me what it is? Having blind faith last time in Mirzaani riding to the rescue to save us from that sky high $100m inducement charge was a mistake. I don’t want to be in that position again just listening to a load of tosh that Mirzaaani will flow at 300 bopd, that gas sales will rise and that Varang will create new revenue streams, and then for all these things to happen too late and then get finished off with another inducement charge, and then just be told they did their best. The time to demand better performance is now, before it is too late. An example of a company that communicates well is AVM. Dire host country (Burkina Faso is less safe than Georgia?), balance sheet is terrible (going conecern worries, priced to go bust, high cost producer, loads of debt, and vulture funds owning some of its debt e.g. Elliot Partners, the hold-outs who are trying to screw Argentina), a market cap. that is half FRR’s, and AVM is a 40 bagger if gold were to return to $1829 per oz.) and AVM’s balance sheet now is where FRR’s will be in 6 month’s time if FRR does not work faster, and yet AVM manages to answer questions in regular analysts’ conference calls. So why can’t FRR? If you want to be taken seriously, you answer investors’ concerns (whether they are justified or not, as long as they are genuine concerns). Of course there are many ways to answer them: an elegant way is just to get the FRR share price up! Mr Nicandros’ equity stake is then more valuable than his debt stake, and then we know he is working for us. Just my view. Verdict: FRR can do better – still thinking of voting “no” even though that is a stupid course of action. I look forward to the next operations update answering my concerns, and it coming out before I have to vote. P.S. Many thanks again for all the hard work you have done.
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