Fresnillo Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 28/10/2024 14:58

MXN677. Still close to highs and pushing upwards again a little.

Dec 26 $36.75 and Dec 28 $37.65 futures also still quite strong.

Gold at MXN54,971 is actually back above Friday's record close.

Basically, we keep getting corrections/profit-taking that don't amount to much, though that has been MXN weakness in the last two weeks as much as PM strength.

[book5] 28/10/2024 14:52

Silver moving upwards
$50 next year

[aleman] 28/10/2024 08:57

Consensus creeping up now as Q3 revisions are absorbed. 2025 earnings up 10 cents to 80 cents and target up about $1.40 to $10.20. (Range $8.32 to $14.69) Dividend 40 cents but also might rise a bit more since I think there might be a few more revisions to added to the consensus yet. As usual, earnings forecasts seem to be getting revised to be in line with roughly where the shares have already moved to.

[tim000] 28/10/2024 07:53

Peso at its weakest level against the $ for two years. Likely a proxy for DJT’s election prospects. If so, expect further depreciation over the next 9 days.

[foreverbull] 27/10/2024 23:42

Iran's downplayed the Israeli attack ... it appears it may not escalate further at this stage... but let's see.Https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ced99eznje9o.amp

[sumday] 27/10/2024 18:38

Well said Tim

[book5] 27/10/2024 17:15

Tragically, Israeli attack on Iran should boost Au & Ag prices

[book5] 27/10/2024 17:09

Elrico
Thanks, from your article:

Silver Price Projections for 2025

General Outlook: Analysts expect silver prices to increase significantly in 2025 due to strong industrial demand and macroeconomic conditions favouring precious metals as safe-haven assets.
Price Predictions:
Investing Cube predicts silver trading between $34 and $50 per ounce in 2025.
Predict-Price suggests a range of $33 to $56 per ounce, with optimistic scenarios reaching as high as $54.95.
CoinCodex forecasts silver prices ranging from $30.45 to $53.77 per ounce in 2025.
Overall, both gold and silver are expected to benefit from ongoing economic uncertainties and industrial demand, with projections indicating continued price growth through 2025.

[elrico] 27/10/2024 16:14

Fresnillo has delivered its third-quarter production results for 2024, and like the treasures it extracts from the earth, there are shining successes and a few tarnished spots. The precious metal miner has sustained its full-year guidance, reassuring investors of its strategic direction. Yet, as is often the case with mining, the story isn't all silver and Gold—there are wrinkles in the ore body.

After a long stretch of volatility, it’s a relief to see Fresnillo back above the 700p mark, a threshold that brings investors renewed optimism. This rise, while modest, feels particularly encouraging given that the company has spent much of its time hovering below this level. As one of the few companies featured in the Small Company Champion Substack lingering in negative territory, seeing this upward movement is undoubtedly a step in the right direction. Featured for a second time at 680p, Fresnillo has been fighting to regain its ground, and there are signs it may finally be breaking free of its rut. Cont:

[book5] 27/10/2024 13:49

21244
They can always mine the maximum amount possible, sell the minimum to cover their costs and store the rest. Storing precious metals is cheap.
Some miners do that

[aleman] 26/10/2024 10:13

Silver's 200-day average in MXN continues to fly on recent spot strength and could hit a new ATH in nearer one week than two.

[aleman] 26/10/2024 10:08

I'd expect a miner not to push hard when their sales prices are low and energy and labour costs are high. Why pull out all the stops and deplete reserves for marginal profits? However, I'd expect them to push very hard when all three of these reverse at the same time. I don't know whether they will beat targets or not but I'd expect a lot more effort when gross margins could be 5 times higher.

[mbmiah1] 25/10/2024 19:52

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1059165/fresnillo-has-much-to-prove-despite-record-gold-price-says-sceptical-ubs-1059165.html

[trader465] 25/10/2024 15:37

Not mining related, but those interested, there’s an interesting boardroom battle going on over at BOO but the thread not worth reading. I think Frasers Mike Ashley will get what he wants there, I picked up a few today which went instantly into profit

[book5] 25/10/2024 15:27

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There are plenty of stocks due to historical reasons, mainly low industrial consumption for centuries, i.e. easily recyclable

Even this year production is larger than the industrial consumption, ie stocks are increasing: coins, jewellery….

[aleman] 25/10/2024 15:11

book5
25 Oct '24 - 14:00 - 21237 of 21239

There are 5 years' worth of silver production stored overground

This year's World Silver Survey said annual mine production was 800m oz, recyling output 200m oz, stocks 1200m (down 550m oz in three years) , and demand 1200m oz and rising. That's 1 year's production stored and falling. Stocks included London and exchange vaults elsewhere BUT suggests they "understood" there are other bullion inventories that are not included. If you say there are 4 or 5bn oz stored above ground, where is the other 2800m-3800m oz stored to get 5 years worth please (preferably with links)? Is it stored in India and China who need silver for solar panels and electronics? They might continue their recent buying spree (selling US$ in the process) if the West keeps threatening China (and Russia) with more trade restrictions and criticising India for working around them.

[book5] 25/10/2024 13:18

JP Morgan holds lots of physical silver to shorten the market safely with paper if they wish to do so.
In previous spikes, JM Morgan made record profits when people said they were in trouble!! Why?
Many silver promoters use conspiracy theories.
For decades, retail investors have moved silver, not the industrialists. However, industrial demand and investor demand will create a deficit from next year onwards.

[tim000] 25/10/2024 13:05

Thanks, I didn’t know that stat. But inventory can only be sold once - my understanding is that recycling of industrial silver is difficult. And people are unlikely to monetise all their silver assets all at the same time, it’s likely to proceed slowly.

[book5] 25/10/2024 13:00

Tim000
There are 5 years' worth of silver production stored overground
Currently, silver miners can supply the industry
The problem is that many silver coins are bought and held by investors, hence the minimal annual deficit in production, especially when compared to overground stocks.

Silver spikes follow market anxiety. Some investors are buying precious metals for that reason and may not sell them at current prices.

There is a lot of anxiety.
Holders of silver could flood the market if they want.
Silver has been very volatile; it is a ruthless market, unforgiven.
Fres revenues are not only based on silver, which suits me.

[foreverbull] 25/10/2024 07:54

Are you expecting deep profit booking?

[arja] 25/10/2024 07:46

brave to buy today with silver price showing no signs yet of nice bounce . But I just trade shares and you should be fine holding this stock unless silver does get really hit in a second wave of selling - good luck with it .

[tim000] 25/10/2024 07:15

I’ve added another 2k shares this morning, still more to go. I was aware of strong industrial demand for silver, eg in the manufacture of photovoltaic cells, but I didn’t know the story about military demand. Given the possibility of persistent drawdowns on silver inventory, a long-term hold of FRES looks advisable. Maybe trader’s predictions for the silver price are robust?

[arja] 25/10/2024 07:07

seems that more profit taking on back of dip in silver price but it is friday and friday blues perhaps !

[trader465] 24/10/2024 18:47

The White House - here’s a sheet I posted a few years ago while comparing FRES and POLY. The highest achieved price of silver was in 2011 at $34.75 on only 41.5 moz production, gold price was $1585 on 448.9koz production, profit was $1b. The shares hit £20. Now we have far higher production, I expect the shares to go higher than £20