French Connection Share Discussion Threads

[crbema] 15/11/2013 20:45

Thanks thorne food for thought there.Thinking about getting in here.

[she-ra] 15/11/2013 15:30

thorne3 - Maybe some readers on the FCCN message board sent their daughters out to do a reccy on their clothes after what you said and came back and reported to them hence the buying?lol

Or maybe something concrete is about to happen or maybe its just a Sunday takeover story the mms have got wind of.

Whatever it is I think the future is orange just not with respect to clothes.I don't think its this seasons colour.

[amorruso] 15/11/2013 15:05

thorne3 15 Nov'13 - 12:34 - 2405 of 240

Good post and the fact that seems to be passing some by despite it staring them in the face.

[protean] 15/11/2013 14:19

A flurry of buying there. L2 looking strong.

[thorne3] 15/11/2013 12:34

My wife and daughter(Sheffield and London based respectively) advise me that the company from a shopper's point of view has undergone a transformation over the last 12 months.Previously,designs were below par and the goods were far too expensive;the reverse on both counts is now the case such that my daughter in particular is visiting FCCN's stores more frequently.A turnround is underway and in my view the tipping point may be near.Onerous leases do not help and neither does the pretty horrible retail market in general.However I do believe that an exercise in "kitchen sinking" has taken place and that before long figures should begin to show an improvement.Forecasting the precise timing and extent of a recovery is always difficult but I do not believe we will run out of cash.At worst I believe the company will recover to breakeven over the next 12 months and be sold on.

[stud-muffin] 15/11/2013 07:29

As I predicted BHS story had no truth in it.

Dire clothes sales at Arcadia - strip out TS/TM and you can see the trouble FCCN are in on the high street.

Price points are going to fall dramatically next year and margins with it, the dog fight is just starting and frankly I do not see FCCN coming out as one of the winners.

[alewis2005] 14/11/2013 14:21

Hargreaves Lansdowne is reporting it as a sell:
10:16 - 14/11 Sell 250000 39.25p £98,125.00

[thorne3] 14/11/2013 13:37

A block of 250000 shares changed hands today. I'm not quite sure whether this was a purchase or a sale.Can anybody clarify the position?

[cockneyrebel] 12/11/2013 22:50

No probs

CR

[bamboo2] 12/11/2013 22:37

CR, thanks that's great. Having a few problems with a lost trade from yesterday on another share [TRX] and beginning to wonder if I have been imagining things!

[cockneyrebel] 12/11/2013 22:20

It's from Nov 8th @ 111.42.12 bamboo if that's any help.

CR

[bamboo2] 12/11/2013 22:11

late trade showing for 325,000. Anyone else able to confirm they can see this currently on the live streaming trade page?

2 11:42:12 40.25 325,000 O L LSE 40.00 41.00 325,000

[amorruso] 12/11/2013 08:40

The point that I was making was that there are suitors interested in buying undervalued UK retailers and FCCN is one of them according to rumour.

[stud-muffin] 12/11/2013 06:45

No one senior (think 80k salary) has heard anything about the BHS rumour in the Times.

It will be a very odd deal as BHS is mostly stocked with Greens Arcadia brands - BHS own sales must now be very small - this would make BHS entirely dependent on Greens stock.

I expect nothing to come of this

[cockneyrebel] 11/11/2013 21:36

The cash won't run out bigboyo but it's seasonal - they might have it at year end but mid year it has gone (or that's been the case so far.

Like I say, there are some positives showing up heer but there's an obstacle or two in Marks and the carp leases they have.

If FCCN get a bid then I will genuinely be happy for the holders here, even if I'm out - I think long suffering share holders that have stuck with FCCN deserve a break.

Hope you do get a rally, genuinely - I'm not one of these that sells out then get bitter if it rallies - there's always other opportunities.

Good luck.

CR

[amorruso] 11/11/2013 21:34

Couple of weeks old this news but interesting all the same:



The BHS department store chain, owned by Sir Philip Green, has been sized up as a potential takeover target by South African billionaire Christo Wiese.

The chain is one of several retailers on a list of possible British acquisitions being considered by Wiese, who has a personal fortune of £2.2 billion. He has formed an alliance with former Asda chief Andy Bond, who has been given the task of finding possible British acquisitions.

Other British groups being considered are understood to include at least one of the pound store chains, which have grown rapidly since Woolworths collapsed in 2008.

Wiese is chairman of South African retail giants Pepkor and Shoprite and is the largest shareholder at both groups.

His representatives have visited the UK on at least one occasion this year to review possible targets.

A source close to the situation said: 'Deals are starting to happen in the UK and Christo does not want to miss the opportunity if it's there, whether through an intermediary or not. He knows the UK and there are plenty of chains here that would fit into his group of shops. BHS is one of those. The internet means retail is global now.'

[stud-muffin] 11/11/2013 18:11

It depends on whether they go all out to stem the decline in retail sales with some serious marketing spend, plus throw in some long overdue refits and trading losses to cover then 20m over two years is not huge.

In truth they are conserving cash as best as they can - this will be enough to tide them over but my partner who works for Arcadia HO reckon sales are sporadically dire across all brands bar Topshop/man with Wallis (similar mkt) well below plan.

Womenswear is a real struggle - anyone who believes different is simply out of touch.

For FCCN it will be a struggle too. When retailers struggle they discount and hard - my guess is FCCN will not be one of the brave few who will try to trade full price till the close of xmas - along with the rest they will go into sale early.

[stud-muffin] 10/11/2013 17:36

Have to agree with CR on this one.

I personally thought the results were poor and showed just how hard it will be to turn things round by 2015 - net cash might well be negative by the time any profits arrive - and when they do I fear our fake wider economic recovery will be over as either tory or labour ramp up taxes.

Increasingly I do not see FCCN having the kudos to warrant the extra cost, in the midlands its Primark with a few crumbs strewn around to the remainder.

[cockneyrebel] 10/11/2013 10:49

I think the one's in malls might not be able to be closed but I'm sure there are non-mall stores that could be closed and cheaper not trading but perhaps not PP.

The online sales growth is decent but it's not even statistically relevant at that actual size - and it may be with all of these co's online sales that a proportion are sales lost at their retail outlets. So unless they can actually close some of the retail outlets and reduce overheads you're pretty much misled by some of these numbers imo. ASC don't have retail outlets that are costing them rent and rates so all increased sales are gains.

I'm not trying to be negative here, I'd love to be positive and believe the recovery and the recent share price move, volume and ne finance director buying are all positives. FCCN needs something drastic tho imo. Marks going, new owners, a different strategy on store closures. Look at HWDN and THT. It has been costing them money to close legacy stores that just don't make money but the rewards are starting to flow through. I'm not sure of the average savings at Howdens but at Thorntons they are saving something like £250k p.a cost on every loss-making store they close. Fortunately they only have short term leases to get out of but are closing half their retail outlets and selling via supermarkets far more. FCCN should have bit the bullet with a few more stores when they had £50m+ cash and a big cash surplus throughout the whole year rather than seasonally now. They should have also started revamping the stores then too which would now have them in a positive spiral rather than a negative one imo.

I think the trading update and the next results will be key - I don't think sales fig will be what moves FCCN, it will be some other strategy or action imo. I'm prepared to revisit these but only if I see something like that that looks like a cure rather than a sticking plaster.

All imo/dyor etc.

CR

[tmfmayn] 10/11/2013 09:28

"The thing to look for is how these brands are doing online."

FCCN online sales were £11m in the last H1 results (20% of global retail sales, which I deduce as £55m-ish), versus £10m for H1 the year before. Not ASC or DEB-type growth of course, but growth nevertheless :-) I see FCCN even sold more online than TED in their latest respective H1s, but TED is growing quicker (online and in shops) naturally. I did not realise the impressive online numbers from DEB.
Mayn

[liarspoker] 09/11/2013 23:38

Investing is funny isn't it.

I bought FCCN a few times for my personal portfolio and made good returns each time. I then stuck it in my newsletter portfolio in early 2012 and it has turned out to be the dog of the portfolio having been down as far as 35% on my purchase price. Glad it's at breakeven now. Average profit on shares sold is 35% so not doing too badly. Not as good as the returns I was making at the end of 2011/start of 2012 though:



Slide 2 I believe.

Oh, and before I forget there's a free 75 page stock market eBook on my site. Better grab it before I take it away. ;o)

[she-ra] 09/11/2013 22:55

Try and read my post again Hyper

[paulypilot] 09/11/2013 21:50

Hi CR,

I'm pretty sure that you can't cease trading from a unit & board it up.
As I recall, there is a requirement in normal leases that you are obliged to continue trading, so would be Sued by the landlord if you ceased trading.

Obviously that is irrelevant if you're bust, but if you're solvent (which FCCN clearly is), then it's not an option.

The thing to look for is how these brands are doing online. If they can reinvent themselves as global brands online, then the sky's the limit as regards valuation - look at ASOS.

Also, on a similar theme, look at DEB - their online operation is growing at 46% year on year, and turnover online is about half of ASOS, yet the market cap is about a quarter of ASOS. Plus you get all the offline business in for free.

So for me, long FCCN is good. Long DEB is also good, and Short ASOS is wise.

DYOR as usual.

Cheers, Paul.