Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[boffster] 06/7/2011 23:58

Good luck sir

[s34icknote] 06/7/2011 20:54

Due a bounce me thinks !
topped up today.

[mrphil] 06/7/2011 16:15

Nobody seems to be getting excited about the much awaited rise! Not quite enough to retire but at least a step in the right direction!

[boffster] 05/7/2011 23:54

Its probably more than coincidental that the trade size was just about dead on 1% of the equity

[19wizard] 05/7/2011 11:29

Probably Lord Saatchi a few weeks ago.

[aleman] 05/7/2011 11:09

If they can buy so much within the spread, it suggests the price has remained weak due to an overhang from a big seller. Any ideas who might be a big seller?

[19wizard] 05/7/2011 10:43

Got to be good news on the horizon with 525,000 buy this morning!

[boffster] 05/7/2011 09:48

Ok, hands up, who's trying to buy more shares than me? ;o)

[aleman] 04/7/2011 10:49

But the market often gets it wrong.

[markt] 03/7/2011 20:04

.....intrinsic value is not the full picture imo.....but I agree with your point......have to be willing to wait for intrinsic value to be the driver for a share price (an unloved company being sold or taken over for example or some other deal to reveal the intrinsic value)

(a very good point which many people overlook.....I think of it in terms of how much would it cost to buy a whole company, appeal for an overseas company or a competitor or some patent or technology or customer list etc etc)
(and intrinsic value doesnt pay dividends...or support the share price in a crash in a bear market imo)

(intrinsic value in bakery sector must consider I think that "seems like every bakery/cake producer complains of trying to pass on any changes in price in materials to their customer")

...but at the end of the day it is the share price we get when we buy or sell...if the intrinsic value is revealed in a company then it is via the share price...

[spaceparallax] 01/7/2011 14:08

Boff - don't forget, so long as you don't need liquidity, it's the intrinsic value (not the mkt sp) that matters.

[boffster] 01/7/2011 13:46

Aleman - I don't like sitting on devaluing cash either, but I seem to like sitting on devaluing shares!

[markt] 01/7/2011 13:41

...is it not possible for a producer that takes a big order of 100k pounds per month for next 18 months say...to just forward buy gas, flour, eggs, fat for that order....to avoid risk of price changes ??

I guess not otherwise they would do it...(or maybe the cost is such that it wipes out the small profit margin...)

(seems like every bakery/cake producer complains of trying to pass on any changes in price in materials to their customer)

[boffster] 01/7/2011 13:16

Its worth bearing in mind that for a premium producer like FIF, commodity prices are likely to make up a smaller % of cost than a volume producer.

[aleman] 30/6/2011 16:58

I did buy some more today rather than wait for news. I don't like sitting on devaluing cash.

[aleman] 30/6/2011 16:45

No I hadn't. Thanks.


First, commodity costs increased by 14% year on year; equivalent to a GBP150m increase in costs in a full year. Although we have successfully repriced our products to reflect this, there was an inevitable time lag before the prices took effect, which led to a one-off cost of GBP15 million in Q1.

This applies to FIF. Commodities prices rose strongly but dropped recently. If we have also increased prices, this could mean better margins from here after a few weak months.

In addition, as a direct result of our successful repricing exercise, one of our major customers delisted a significant number of our Grocery lines. This cost Premier Foods around GBP10m in Q2 but the issue has now been fully resolved and the affected lines have been relisted.

Doesn't apply

Second, there was an unprecedented decline year on year in our markets, with both the Grocery and Bread markets falling by 5%, due to the depressed consumer environment exacerbated by unseasonably warm weather. The consequent decline in volumes reduced profit in both the Grocery and Hovis businesses.

FIF products are likely to benefit from the warm weather garden parties and royal wedding street parties that hurt PFD.

Third, Brookes Avana will record a GBP10m decline in profit year on year in the first half. This includes a GBP5m charge for restructuring at our Leicester site following the decision from Marks and Spencer to remove a significant pie contract in stages over the next year.

Not applicable.

I don't see anything in PFD's update to worry FIF holders. It is possible that input prices could have been a problem in H1 but higher demand for FIF's products should have created a good environment for passing costs on and they may stick, enhancing margins. Even PFD suggest it is all going to unwind in H2 as people go back to its stodgier traditional hot fayre. I suggest FIF will benefit in H1 and then it will also unwind to give normal trading again for cakes in mixed weather.

[markt] 30/6/2011 16:24

....seen the PFD news ? (Premier Foods)

[aleman] 30/6/2011 15:48

Promising uptrend forming? Just need another go at shifting the 25p sellers. After 5 attempts, there shouldn't be so many left. After no bad news for a while and with good forecasts in place, these really should be wrestling with 30p by now, with the promise of a lot more if results are okay. The recent fall in wheat and oil and delay in raising rates should help. I'm looking forward to the trading update after UK food sales were so strong in April.

[bonio10000] 29/6/2011 17:32

It will be relatively quiet until they get the names of the players they can put on next seasons cakes

:-)))

I think Torres was gone within a couple of weeks of his transfer from the Liverpool cake.

[spaceparallax] 29/6/2011 11:26

It has been quiet - but then no news can be good news.

[aleman] 28/6/2011 17:10

Topped up again. Would like to see some news if I'm going to buy any more, though.

[edale] 24/6/2011 21:49

There has been a trading statement at the end of July for the last two years so hopefully one again this year. Providing positive should give the share price a boost.

[boffster] 24/6/2011 10:58

Yes indeed SP, Buffett says the stockmarket is a great way to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient, but who gets up in the morning and thinks, "I know I'll sell some shares in a foodie that are on a P/E of under 3"? The impatient, I suppose?

[spaceparallax] 24/6/2011 09:55

Fear not, simply a reflection of overall gloom in the mkt. As time ticks by, FIF should be maintaining revenues pretty well with decent cashflow and gradual erosion of debt. The scales are tipping in our favour - as the intrinsic value rises, the mkt will eventually cotton on and we'll see a very handsome rerating ala RGD.