Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[boffster] 23/6/2011 15:46

We are not amused

[aleman] 23/6/2011 11:02

Down again today: £163.

[spaceparallax] 23/6/2011 09:44

That should help quite a bit

[aleman] 22/6/2011 17:00

Nice to see wheat is back under £170/tonne after the May 2011 (now expired) contract hit £225 at one point. Nov 2012 is at £150. This is the Nov 2011 contract which is benefitting from the showery weather.

[spaceparallax] 10/6/2011 10:53

amazing increase - we could do with some FIF specific news to help maintain the share price recovery.

[aleman] 10/6/2011 10:49

Manufacture of bread, biscuits, cakes and pastries up 20.2% in April from a year ago thanks to warm weather and royal wedding.

[spaceparallax] 03/6/2011 14:12

Ale, I too am more a fundamental follower although charts can indicate the likely Mkt reactions to news.

[aleman] 03/6/2011 11:59

I'm into fundies rather than charting but the moving average pattern continues to look top notch and a remarkable repeat of July in 2009 and 2010. The share price went up 50% and 30% when the 20-day average broke on those occasions after the 1st leg up had paused.

[aleman] 02/6/2011 10:44

RGD produced an "ahead of statement today" where margins are reported to be nearly back to pre EU sugar regime levels. This suggests to me there is not much more recovery left in the share price. They have done extremely well climbing out of their slump but do they have much left to aim at. What happens there if the volatile sugar price slumps again? The recovery at FIF has barely begun. A full debt payoff with a little growth thrown in would see pretax profit of £10m+, eps at 15p+ and dividend of maybe 8p and shares at maybe £2 in 4 or 5 years. There is potential downside but the company is generating good cashflow and its business is far less volatile so downside seems much less to me than RGD in the near future. There could be more upside in RGD but I would be seeking to diversify if I held there. I am still considering buying more FIF, which I consider to be amongst the cheapest shares on the whole market. If FIF simply continues as it has been doing the shares will go up a lot. How many shares can you say that of?

[spaceparallax] 02/6/2011 10:32

Cheer up Boff, it will correct in good time. I see RGD are going great guns atm - not long ago they were in a similar position to us.

[boffster] 02/6/2011 10:09

How can we be running EPS of ~7p/share and be worth 23p, and RGD are at ~2.5p and worth 70p? Makes no sense.

[aleman] 26/5/2011 15:36

Tick up off the 50-day average still makes the chart look positive. Looks to be building a good base to attack 25p resistance from.

[henmat] 23/5/2011 20:22

rain forecast for end of may - still have'nt seen any in my part of the world - mid france - rivers are at end of summer levels and plans are ready to power down nuclear power stations - not that that'll affect fif of course.



not discounting the wrong type of rain though : ))

[aleman] 23/5/2011 18:41

The price for next year has jumped to £195 now. The drought here was being partly blamed yet the rain has seen prices rise. I find the whole thing a bit odd. When prices jumped in 2008, it stimulated planting which kept futures low and the extra supply brought the spot price back down. I don't see why this time is different.

[henmat] 23/5/2011 17:59

i was worrying more about next years wheat price on the way home this evening, and they're already priciing it in !

nice to have seen the golden cross form though.

[aleman] 20/5/2011 17:35

Eh? May wheat is only up about £8 at £195 compared to £210 a month ago and the price is still expected to fall as May 2012 is £175.

[farmingrgp] 20/5/2011 17:03

Big hike in wheat prices this week. Good for arable farmers but not for millers.

[aleman] 19/5/2011 09:40

I doubt it is significant for FIF but warm weather and the royal wedding led to a small jump in food sales boosting retail sales last month. (We ate more gingerbread as we had guests a couple of times and were able to sit out in the sun for afternoon tea.)
.

[aleman] 18/5/2011 16:28

Well I reckon there won't be many more chances around 25p. Typically, it would drop back a touch or tread water until the 50-day average caught up and then take the next step up, provided no bad news intervenes. If it holds long enough until I get a bit more cash through, I might top up just to round off my holding.

[spaceparallax] 18/5/2011 15:40

One or two, but looking to be almost cleared out.

[aleman] 17/5/2011 16:04

Still a few 25p sellers about by the looks of things, athough I see my buy that exceeds them all is listed on plus where it gets noticed less.

[spaceparallax] 17/5/2011 13:24

Good post Ale and most importantly the Company's in far better financial health than the previous times, which should ensure sustained share price progress.

[aleman] 17/5/2011 12:23

Golden cross today. Note the strong share price after the last twice it happened, rising 50% in summer 2009 and 30% in summer 2010 over the following couple of months (rising more if you include the run up to the golden cross, of course.)



Note the green 20-day average about to break out (having peaked at 24.25p twice) if the shares do not fall in the next day or two. One would then expect a test of 30p - for the average rather than the spot share price which would have to overshoot 30p slightly for to get the average there - if that happens. The spot price looks well poised to test 33p again (but that does not mean it can't go down, where the most likely retest looks to be the pink 200-day at around 22-23p, where I would be tempted again after adding a few more today).