Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[boffster] 07/10/2011 11:12

Whilst I take no pleasure at all in witnessing the ruination of a once mighty business, that the no.1 cake supplier is losing market share must be good news for the no.2 cake supplier!

[this_is_me] 07/10/2011 09:39

Still at a daft price; patience will be rewarded at some point.

[bonio10000] 07/10/2011 09:06

I think someone posed the PFD question this week.

Today answers that.

[exel] 04/10/2011 17:07

Thanks Boffster, am very open to all your points and to any valid inputs on this (generally good) thread. Have no axe to grind other than sharing my own thoughts and analyses and hearing yours and those of others. I now expect to be 'in' for the long haul and hope it won't be either 'too long' or too much of a 'haul'. ex

[boffster] 04/10/2011 14:51

Exel, good luck. Maybe I should consider other factors, but the ludicrous P/E, increasing sales and reducing debt is very compelling for me. I am not as concerned as you that the fire-sale value of the business is not as great as its liabilities, I think you are being unfair in valuing FIF's licenses, reputation and standing in the marketplace at zero. But each to their own.

[exel] 04/10/2011 14:04

Boffster, you are not alone in 'taking advantage'. Against all of my (perhaps) better judgement and many expressed concerns re working capital stretch and TNAV (lack of), I re-entered the fray today, as a consequence of what I take to be an irrational dip driven by these wider market issues. That said, the JMK sentiment remains chillingly valid, so I won't be adding many more, unless there is a compelling reason to do so. That div (which I expect to be 1p final in 12 months) is still a long way off.

[bonio10000] 04/10/2011 14:02

You can also substitute "wife" for "market" in that sentence and the same sentiment holds true.

[stegrego] 04/10/2011 12:52

Boffster,

John Maynard Keynes not Buffett but the sentiment remains the same.

[boffster] 04/10/2011 11:01

Well, worse things happen at sea. It appears one or two (myself included, hehe) are taking advantage.

[exel] 04/10/2011 10:43

sensed (last week) that there would be 'inevitable price dips' within which to restore/rebuild a position here, but did not expect them to be this sharp and this soon.

[boffster] 04/10/2011 10:40

WB was really onto something when he said 'The Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent'

[aleman] 04/10/2011 00:22

Brent crude has now fallen to $100 from its $125+ peak. More crude is supposed to be coming in from Libya now so it should fall closer to WTI at $76. Falling energy costs should give a lift to economies, especially the US, where the oil price is down over 1/3rd compared to our 25%. It must benefit FIF at some point if it doesn't spike back up soon.

[stegrego] 03/10/2011 17:35

Got to be good news here if the ingredient list is becoming much cheaper. Selling prices of products may reduce but that should equal more volume and less pressure on margins.

Hope they havent hedged a shed load at 220....

[aleman] 03/10/2011 17:30

Wheat plumbing new depths. Under £150/tonne. Think it peaked at £225-230. Goldman Sachs have apparently forecast further falls.

[boffster] 03/10/2011 16:36

Aleman, what is your opinion on the health of PFD? I've been over their results a couple of times and it looks pretty grim to me.

Interesting really, you would have thought in leaner times, FIF would struggle and PFD would bear up, however the reverse seems to be happening.

[aleman] 03/10/2011 16:18

Payables rose 27% and receivables rose 25%. Do you expect them to do 1/4 more turnover without these two going up similarly?

[boffster] 03/10/2011 15:50

Or how about buying more ingredients to fulfill an increasing order book.

[dennis russell] 03/10/2011 14:56

I'm hanging in, though I am concerned at the way Trade payables have been boosted, presumably to dress the balance sheet. Or perhaps, charitably, some clever forward buying of ingredients?

[boffster] 03/10/2011 13:46

obviously p/e of 3.5 is expensive
This is comical.. still means I get more shares for my money when I top up next

[aleman] 03/10/2011 11:26

I was right. Forecast dividend for this year lowered to 1.0p. If it had stayed at 1.5p , I'd have expected a 0.5p interim. I'm not convinced there'll be one with the total being 1.0p. I'm guessing they'll leave it all until the finals. If the shares are pushing 40p as I expect them to be by then (p/e 5 for 2013?), a 1p final won't seem too lumpy, then we'll get 0.5p + 1.0p next year. Forecast 2011/12 P/E is now 3.37 and yield 3.85%. (At an optimistic guess, that puts 2012/13 at a p/e of around 3.1 and 5.8% yield.).

Panmure Gordon BUY 28 Sep 2011
2011 5.84 7.07 - 190.00
2012 6.30 7.71 1.00 195.00

[boffster] 29/9/2011 11:11

A few more for me I think

[aleman] 28/9/2011 11:36

Panmure Gordon analysts Graham Jones and Damian McNeela said Finsbury Foods' growth is "creditable" in difficult trading conditions, with stronger-than-expected cash generation.

"While the outlook is for more 'testing times', we expect further profit growth in 2012, and net debt to EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) to fall to 2.8 times. Reflecting the continuing rehabilitation of the balance sheet, we increase our price target from 30p to 33p." said the analysts.

[aleman] 28/9/2011 11:05

It seems Panmure Gordon has lowered EPS forecast for the current year to 7.7p from 8.3p but raised the share price target to 33p from 30p. Media are blaming commodities prices and a budding supermarket price war.



Anybody seen PG's divvie forecast yet? I'll bet it's been lowered.

[jpjp100] 28/9/2011 10:46

not seen too much analysis of the results in the press yet, but the little I have seen (Scotsman, International Supermarket News, Yorkshire Post, this is London) seems to be worst benign, at best reasonably upbeat

share price holding up following the results too