Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[martywidget] 02/4/2017 14:26

Until an indication on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator or renko determines otherwise, etc.

Anyway, there is currently as yet no change in trend on the daily/weekly renko indicated yet, and no indication as yet confirmed on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator.

[wetdream] 02/4/2017 14:03

A 66k sell on Friday was absorbed with no problem by the market.
Sellers are certainly slowing the rate of increase currently, but my feeling is that institutions will soak up anything around £14.50.

[martywidget] 02/4/2017 13:25

Perhaps he's currently targeting/looking at a short for the gap on the chart in January [approx 1154-1183] to get filled.

[bamboo2] 02/4/2017 13:14

MW, Cakwell also tried and failed the same stunt at BOO late last year.

It's so weird, why not choose one of the legions of shares in a clear down trend, rather than trying to guess the top?

[doodlebug4] 01/4/2017 18:52

Cawkwell said this was a short over a week ago in the Master Investor mag. To be honest he's got some calls in the last year or so horribly wrong.

[wetdream] 31/3/2017 15:09

Sogoesit & Martywidget,
Thanks-I'll get reading!
;-)

[martywidget] 31/3/2017 11:30

And this one also:

Money & Speed: Inside the Black Box is a thriller based on actual events that takes you to the heart of our automated world. Based on interviews with those directly involved and data visualizations up to the millisecond, it reconstructs the flash crash of May 6th 2010: the fastest and deepest U.S. stock market plunge ever.

[Money & Speed: Inside the Black Box - (vpro backlight documentary - 2011)]

[martywidget] 31/3/2017 11:09

Worth watching, if you don't know what an algorithm is and how the real financial markets operate...

The Wall Street Code - (vpro backlight documentary - 2013)


Quants - The Alchemists of Wall Street - (vpro backlight documentary - 2010)

[sogoesit] 31/3/2017 11:04

I am not sure what you mean by the "computer algorithm", wetdream, but an "AT" is an automated trade initiated through the SETS system.

To that extent it is "computer" driven. So, for example, if you set an order with your broker, or directly, they will pass that on to the system which will match the numbers of your order to the numbers of shares available at the same price as you set.
The order is "filled" through the match and may comprise one or several "lots" of shares offered in the market. If so, it is likely that these "fills" are timed coincidentally to the second (since trading these days, I think, can be done to the millisecond).
One or two brokers that I use report the fills but not the timings to the second. But I can sometimes see them generated on Level 2 data to check.

I imagine your question about an algorithm refers to automated trades where traders have set computer generated prices/volumes to buy or sell which are then triggered by the market system. Sure, this occurs... but I don't know anymore than that.

[wetdream] 31/3/2017 09:59

Sogoesit-thanks.
One other question please-
Most trades on FEVR are 'AT's, but often have identical trade times - to the second.
Is it reasonable to assume that these particular trades are caused by a computer algorithm (or somesuch) and are, in effect, part of one single trade?
Again, TIA

[sogoesit] 31/3/2017 09:27

As far as I understand it, wetdream, they (still) are Ordinary trades ("O") carried out on the market through market makers. If brokers let you you, as a PI or with direct access, can trade between official market close, at 16:30, and 17:00 and between auction open, at 08:00, and 08:30 official open.
There are 5 minute auction periods between 08:00 and 08:05 and 16:30 and 16:35 'tho... when the UT (uncrossing trade is reported).

[wetdream] 31/3/2017 08:40

Could someone explain the after-market/pre-market blocks of conditional 'O' trades that end and start the trading day?
Why can't they be dealt with during normal trading hours?
TIA

[wetdream] 30/3/2017 11:39

Staverly,
Ha!
Hence their title 'anal-yst'....;-)
But imho they still carry some weight with your average investor so it's good to have them onside.

[staverly] 30/3/2017 10:19

wd: I am not sure what you mean by "managing expectations". I've sat in dozens of analyst's presentations, and my usual takeaway was surprise at the sterility of the questions. Most analysts are very plausible and great with spreadsheets, but have limited commercial nous.

[wetdream] 30/3/2017 09:08

Staverly,
Ok-how about 'analyst briefings'....?
Of course nothing sinister or underhand, just out of the mainstream press.
'Managing expectations' seems to be the key. RBC's £17 prediction I believe followed such a briefing.

[martywidget] 30/3/2017 08:14

Mixers see highest growth of soft drinks driven by health trend and premiumisation
29 Mar 2017
The Fever Tree effect is responsible for the rapid growth of mixers over the past 12 months.



Link to the Britvic report, 24 Mar 2017 Soft Drinks Review 2016 Foodservice & Licensed:


SOFT DRINKS REVIEW

[staverly] 30/3/2017 07:46

Just popped out to collect the morning paper via the Co-op village shop for some milk, to my pleasant surprise i noted they now stock Fever-tree products, came in this week; good shelf height positioning. Strewth!

[martywidget] 30/3/2017 06:47

A few positions at Fever-Tree

JOIN THE WORLD’S BEST MIXER BRAND

"We are looking to recruit new team members at Fever-Tree. Don't miss out on a unique opportunity to join one of the most dynamic, entrepreneurial and progressive drinks companies in the UK..."

On-Trade Marketing Internship (6 months)...

&

International Country Managers (2 positions : Central & Eastern Europe & Southern Europe)...

[staverly] 30/3/2017 00:32

Wetdream: given the awesome power of the business model, unlike ASOS or Boohoo, a trade deal is most likely, within 12m must be favourite. I don't agree with you about BOD tipping the wink. IMO, selective disclosure is unusual these days.

On a lighter note, the FEVR sabotage team seem to be doing a good job ...

[sogoesit] 30/3/2017 00:05

This is my justification for holding for future growth:
"The dark spirits category, on the other hand, accounts for 60% of global premium spirits, ten times the size. Within the dark spirits category the same trends of premiumisation and mixabilty that are driving the rise of premium gin and tonic consumption are also emerging, with major premium dark spirits brands actively promoting simple long serves. New Fever-Tree products will be launched in 2017 to complement our existing dark spirit mixing range, reintroducing quality and choice to the trade and consumers of dark spirits. We believe that an exciting opportunity exists to work alongside the premium spirits brands to reinvigorate the dark spirits category, in much the same way we approached the gin category over ten years ago."

12-18 month target £20.

[wetdream] 29/3/2017 23:49

Staverly,
Fair point, but with c.60% of shares held by the founders + institutions (at the last count) I'd expect the BoD to tip them the wink re expectations-they've done a good job so far.
Doesn't stop them from selling, of course, but even small % gains in the US will lead to a dramatic upsurge in share price imho and put them at real risk of being taken out.

[staverly] 29/3/2017 23:00

Greek islander: the pattern so far has been for the stock to be weak post FY Ann. as the market awaits reassurance that the party is still going strong. The munchkin at Shore Capital even expected another upgrade last week - ridiculous. If no + trading update arrives on or before AGM then share price presumably will sell-off heavily; however, if it's business as usual, then this Indian rope trick continues. It's binary, but with a clear timeframe.

Book-broker: valuation is purely subjective, in this difficult game sound judgment discounts the unknowable future. What is of interest is a coherent reason for your thinking ...

[bookbroker] 29/3/2017 18:35

Way over-valued, but then if they can catch 10% per cent of global sorts market this can be a Coca Cola, but they'll be taken out before then!