Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[martywidget] 15/3/2017 08:30

JP Morgan's Meadon: I'm comforted by M&A activity
14 Mar, 2017

...expounds on why he is so taken with companies Fever-Tree...

(Video, talks of Fever-Tree @ 1min 58sec)

"One of the most significant positions in the fund is a stock called Fever-Tree.. which may be known to many of your viewers... remarkable performance in the shares just over two years ago came to the stock market at £1.34 a share... gone up 10 fold in 2.5 years... Usually that would be a signal to take some profits... but the next leg of growth for Fever-Tree is going to be as exciting as the first... in that they're going to be tapping into the brown spirits market, whisky and rum and doing mixers for that... they just launched a cola, a Madagascan cola... and the size of the brown spirits market is approximately ten times the size of the white spirits market so I think there is still more to go for even though the shares have gone up ten fold... so I'm running that position in Fever-Tree"

[wobaguk] 13/3/2017 14:30

With results only 8 days away, that a previous announcement was said to be materially ahead of expectations, its hard to imagine that its a good move to sell before then.

I do think we are going to see a downward market blip when A50 is triggered which might be before than, if I was feeling adventurous I might sell, then take a spread bet out after A50 and before the results, but thats tricky timing.

[wetdream] 10/3/2017 13:05

Thanks for your comments re RSI. Just trying to compare it against the co's share price history.
Got in and out(!) at £13 when the charts had a downturn.
Perhaps a revised broker note with an share price target of £20 would actually drive the share price up to £20...!
Most unusual, but entertaining!
Good luck all holders.

[ccr1958] 10/3/2017 09:17

I am sure you all know but BA use fevertree tonic quite a coup !!!

[sogoesit] 10/3/2017 09:08

Too right gersemi. TA is for short term decision-making & long term price performance indication.

Wetdream, RSI is a short term (usually 14 day), smoothed moving average gain/loss indicator and gives an indication of price momentum. The originator stipulates that price is "overbought" above 70 and "oversold" below 30.
[NB. something has gone wrong with the charts in the thread header probably due to price data error]

[bamboo2] 10/3/2017 09:05

wet,

The charts in the header are not updating correctly.

RSI is still high, ie overbought.

[bookbroker] 10/3/2017 09:00

A scary rating, no slip-ups at this level, this is on a par with some very high fashion names, even if sales were to double year on year it would be still be rated high, an amazing brand to believe they IPO'd at 134p just two and a half years ago!

[gersemi] 10/3/2017 06:55

Well done here. What a company and what price performance to date. There are other companies similar to this that exhibit superb earnings records and even better, the ability to satisfy market expectations (which is the litmus test of all listed companies)

Treatt PLC is another stock with similar earnings profile

Companies of this quality are bought not for their technicals (charts) but for their earnings ability. See ASC and BOO and that should tell you all you need to know

Technical analysis as its place in investment decision making but their importance is very much overstated. It is the quality of the company and its mgt that really makes the difference

GLA

[wetdream] 09/3/2017 21:46

RSI Drops from 100 to 55.
Does that mean it's undersold?
Anyone know the formula well enough to comment?

[sogoesit] 09/3/2017 10:03

Ok, sitting tight seems to be the answer.
Not a very exciting prospect... or maybe it is ;-)!

SP seems firm around this level and can only fault the charts on the "overbought" signals not the trend even tho MACD has now crossed-over again..

Thanks for feedback.

[finbarot] 09/3/2017 07:08

I'm hoping we will all be in for another pleasant surprise

[wetdream] 08/3/2017 18:21

Probably doesn't do any harm for the share price to pause for a bit, after all, an RSI of > 90 seems to be stretching things, based on the historical chart.
While co. Strategy looks sound, profits would have to be sensational to support current share price rise. IMHO?
But perhaps they will be!

[martywidget] 08/3/2017 15:28

Spring Budget 2017

"Soft Drinks Industry Levy – The levy rate for added sugar drinks with a total sugar content of 5 grams or more per 100 millilitres will be set at 18 pence per litre, and those with 8 grams or more per 100 millilitres will be set at 24 pence per litre."

[sogoesit] 08/3/2017 10:00

Indeed...
In my book, getting to round the £15 mark is creeping into overvalue territory...
What to do?
Stay long... term?
Sell down part before news?
Stop worrying and have a drink; topped up with Fever-Tree?

[ccr1958] 06/3/2017 16:07

I like a `Dark and stormy` .

[sogoesit] 06/3/2017 15:46

No shaking trees I can see; still feverish 'tho.
Reading the other thread that MartyWidget posts on I see that Warrillow wants to shake-up the mixer market for "dark spirits" with a soft launch prior to full launch in the autumn. This segment is about 60% of the international spirits market apparently.
Says that ginger beer growth is faster than tonic water growth.

[martywidget] 06/3/2017 10:28

Here's an article from a couple of weeks ago:

Fever-Tree eyes dark spirit mixer growth
15 February, 2017

[ccr1958] 02/3/2017 17:40

finbarot...would that be a fever tree shake ? ;)

[finbarot] 02/3/2017 16:20

IIRC there was a bit of a tree shake prior to results last year

[staverly] 02/3/2017 02:45

Noting Asos meteoric rise when it flew from £21 ps (around FEVR m/cap) to its highest close of ~£5.4bn m/cap. Should FEVR follow suit that would equate to a £47 share price in around 15 months. Were the expected rise in FY16 profit to fall back from 110% to say 75% for the current year (2017), and increase a further 60% in 2018 then for all those who love to fixate on PEs, that works out at around ~£100m profit or a PE of around x54. Not ridiculous for such high quality IMO. I certainly will not be selling.

[bonio10000] 01/3/2017 19:02

Great British company.

Good job all round.

[martywidget] 01/3/2017 14:56

Here is something I mentioned last year to someone on another board early last year:

"Incidentally, I don't know if you're into the study of harmonics, but to me, the FEVR chart has approx. a 89% correlation to a particular stock chart from 12/13 years ago.. !!!! (but on a different timeframe)"

And indeed it was time and again validated prior/since then! So I continue to watch with interest!

[the big fella] 01/3/2017 13:47

Well I hold my hat up to those that kept the faith this long. I thought gravity would get the better of it ages ago and sold way too early. Well done.

[sogoesit] 01/3/2017 13:22

Heading towards bamboo2's near term target of 1490p...