Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[hybrasil] 24/1/2017 12:58

In Florida on holiday. We were asked out to drinks by a lovely retired merchant banker. In his house the only tonic was fevertree. They buy it by the caseload from amazon

[apad] 24/1/2017 12:15

TT have a look at the advert for Cola to satisfy the Rum&Coke market in the UK. It is amazing.
USA is a huge market and from a relatively small base the opportunity for growth should be much easier than in the UK.
I'm not sure what currency effects are contained in these numbers, either.
FEVR is a global market brand play, so, yes, I'm disappointed in the USA growth rate - not just by comparison with the UK.
UK growth rate will plateau soonest.
FEVR is 17% of my portfolio (largest holding), so I am always looking for problems, however small, and well hidden under headlines.
apad

[sogoesit] 24/1/2017 10:52

Good trade bamboo; well called.

Agree, terry, £150m within reach for 2017 year.

Good luck!

[terry topper] 24/1/2017 10:38

I suppose you can look at +55% and say that it's disappointing compared to 118% from the UK.
However I would say that the UK is exceptional and it is good to see FEVR taking full advantage of the 'premiumisation' especially in gin. It may be that there has been a massive focus on the UK given it's the home market and given the exceptional growth opportunity.
Even with a bit of slowing in the growth rates across the various world regions, revenues >£150m and eps >35p are quite possible for 2017 - share price should get to £14-15 over the next few months IMO.

[apad] 24/1/2017 10:10

TT:
UK revenue is dominating and the USA income has not increased enough.
The USA income was 23% of the total and is now 20%. Given it was 56 percent of UK income it should be growing faster if they were making a complete success of the US market.
My numbers from Interim and Update:
Revenue Revenue
Interim Update
UK 39% 48%
Europe 33% 26%
USA 23% 20%
RoW 5% 6%

UK 16 34
USA 9 14
Total £m 41 71


apad
ps
Not interested in what the Tintins say.

[terry topper] 24/1/2017 10:04

APAD - US was ahead of broker expectations - Cenkos were forecasting US revenue of £20.1m (+47%). It has come in at +55% (£21.2m). Still massive upside there one would think.

All 4 regions were ahead of expectations (Cenkos forecasts in brackets):
UK +118% (+95%)
US +55% (+47%)
Europe +39% (+30%)
RoW +88% (+78%)

[bamboo2] 24/1/2017 09:26

Let go of mine for 7%. :) gla

[apad] 24/1/2017 08:52

Disappointing USA growth.
apad

[croasdalelfc] 24/1/2017 08:50

A lower market cap than Boo - profits similar - it pays a divi and growing at 80% - this is worth 1400p

[battlebus2] 24/1/2017 08:12

Yet another pleasing statement 🎉

[sogoesit] 24/1/2017 07:49

Yes, bamboo, stochastics also not overbought.

[bamboo2] 24/1/2017 07:39

Sogoesit, re pop, The clincher for me was the state of the indicators in the header chart. Hope it works out. Should be high volume today. gla

[bookbroker] 24/1/2017 07:36

Difficult to see how this can go too much further, maybe £13., but the rating already up with events, even if they make 30p eps, already on 40x!

[sogoesit] 24/1/2017 07:32

Also in my neighbour's garden!
Strong growth continues > over the £100m mark.
Should be good for a bit of a pop... not to mention fizz.

[broadwood] 24/1/2017 07:22

That'll do nicely.


Following the Group's trading update on 7th November the sales in the final two months of the year, particularly in the UK, were stronger than anticipated and therefore the Board expects that the outcome for the full year will be materially ahead of its expectations

[martywidget] 24/1/2017 07:03

Cheers!

Fevertree Drinks PLC Trading Update


As ever - For share discussion, continue over here folks:

[hybrasil] 23/1/2017 21:44

Bamboo you seem to be everywhere!

[sogoesit] 23/1/2017 16:20

Yep, accumulated some at 1133p & 1134p

[bamboo2] 23/1/2017 15:42

Bought in this pm.

[sogoesit] 23/1/2017 14:43

We'll see but what is certain is that a lot of us will be wrong ;-).

If anything I think the Sales Revenue forecast is likely to be out of kilter as your sensitivity analysis shows, terry.
Good luck!

[terry topper] 23/1/2017 14:40

I really hope you are right - I based my calculations above on turnover of £100m - it may be that the turnover figure will be meaningfully higher. Total 2016 revenues of £100m implies H2 revenues of £59.4m which would be 69% ahead of H2 last year.
£110m would imply H2 growth of 98% and at an EBITDA margin for the whole year of 32.5% would give eps of around 24p. If we get that then the shares will rocket. Alarm set for 06.55!

[sogoesit] 23/1/2017 14:14

im trying to guess an upside based on the the statement of "considerably ahead of current market expectations", terry.
If current market expectations (in November) were EPS of 19p to 21p then a 30% uplift to those is "within reason".
What were forecasts in November if not 19p to 21p?

Recent price targets are 1260-1270p. Award that a P/E of 40-50 and see what comes out... otherwise there's no upside to current share price That's my interpretation of what the market says today... otherwise it's stagnation. What are the chances of that?

[terry topper] 23/1/2017 13:24

Sogoesit
I would love it if you were right but I think your eps range would mean an increase in the EBITDA margin from around 30% last year to 39-48%!
I expect some margin expansion but can't see it being as much as that I'm afraid.

Edit for clarity - the margins above refer only to the second half (H1 EBITDA margin was 30.5%).

[bamboo2] 23/1/2017 13:08

Chart suggesting an upbreak with initial target approx min 1175, with up to 1250 subject to confirmation. Initial target looks like it may confirm and hit target price on same day. Somewhat annoying for those who like me, work on eod closing prices.

Turn likely 27th Jan

[sogoesit] 23/1/2017 12:59

November update said "considerably ahead of current market expectations".
So I'm going for:
EPS of minimum 24.5p upto 28p.
Revenue about £100m