Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[demo trader] 21/1/2020 10:17

5 BROKER'S rec.,most are on hold, range 1300p-1650p

[llama1978] 21/1/2020 10:15

The reality is, you may not ever see prices this low again. After the “shocking̶1; 1% decline in U.K. sales and the obviously completely necessary lowering of price by 27% to account for this totally unexpected news, things may improve over the next year or 2. The U.S. to me seems encouraging although would be good to understand more about the revised 2020 revenue. If successful in US, must be bought out by a big US player. Wouldn’t sell for less than £24 or so I would guess.

[martywidget] 21/1/2020 09:56

Quite.

The best insight into the baloney that analysts spout with their targets was when Investec (house broker) Nicola Mallard had a certain target in the £30's or something in 2018, meanwhile several months later in february last year one of their fund managers, Simon Brazier, was saying it (got) way too expensive in the past at the higher levels, lol!

[Quoting him from February last year]:

"It got way too expensive, it became a very, very expensive company which is why we didn't own it"

[castleford tiger] 21/1/2020 09:48

don't they talk some rubbish.

People pay for this!!!!!!!

Tiger

[martywidget] 21/1/2020 09:36

[This broker's updated target is now on the list]:

21 Jan 2020
JP Morgan Cazenove
Overweight
Old target 2,400.00
New Target 1,500.00
Reiterates

[martywidget] 21/1/2020 09:26

21 Jan 2020
Deutsche Bank
Hold
Old target 2,200.00
New Target 1,650.00
Reiterates

21 Jan 2020
RBC Capital Markets Sector Performer
Old Target 2,200.00
New Target 1,300.00
Reiterates

20 Jan 2020
Liberum Capital
Under Review

[wetdream] 21/1/2020 09:20

Up to now FEVR’s institutional investors have been surprisingly loyal, imho.
This latest update may see them finally start to reduce, which will be confirmed by RNS.
Rumours of takeover talks could cause them to re-think....

[bonio10000] 21/1/2020 08:48

Truman and Richardson will sort you out.

Shame you lost McClelland back in the day or you would have a monopoly on top halves.

[llama1978] 21/1/2020 08:28

There’s still no competition in the U.K. just look in store. Fever tree in the supermarket I use is about half of all tonic space. Schweppes is 25%. Own brand about 15% and random small players the rest. If anything fever tree is more dominant in store now than it was a year ago. My expectation is we will see low double digit growth this year in the U.K. with a good summer and Olympics to help a little, but 2019 was tough for many and things can only get better. Now we have Boris at the helm anyway 😂

[castleford tiger] 21/1/2020 08:26

thanks bonio

3 pre season games and lost them all.........

[montyhedge] 21/1/2020 08:12

JP Morgan gone to neutral, target 1500p. To me neutral in analyst talk is a sell.

[bonio10000] 21/1/2020 08:08

CT

Good luck this season. Will be good to see Egodo back at Broncos.

Fully agree on FEVR.

[castleford tiger] 21/1/2020 07:58

tryingtogetrich

With the greatest respect you have continually dismissed any negativity here by suggesting people have an Agenda.

I don't want to see any of us lose money...........its us the little guys against the market.........

I had a similar response when I suggested people exit from TCG.

I cant cover more than a few companies and I get things wrong but IN MY OPINION you are still missing the point here.

Fevertree trading on such a high earnings multiple will get hammered when they produce a flat result in their main market.

I think there will; be more bad news before it gets better.

Interesting to see comment by press today.
Regards
Tiger

[ny boy] 21/1/2020 00:57

One trick pony, consumers tightening their belts too, not one for bottom picking either, catch a falling knife for sometime imo dyor as usual

Monty I added STX, too good to miss that one!

[trying2getrichquick] 20/1/2020 23:43

So many trolls on this board, most without any shares in Fevertree, just here to wind people up.
Seriously, get a life!
Ridiculously oversold, shares down 27% on a 10% increase in sales, in a tough climate.
With a new pricing structure coming, this will wipe out the minnows and will become the market leader in every country in the world. New products are on the way, 2020 will be a transitional year for Fevertree, where they will invest heavily, for the future.
Seriously amazing things on the way!
Watch this space!!!

[mike_miikke] 20/1/2020 22:02

From these posts it's clear people will not agree. So in the morning some will choose to sell- perhaps in panic; and others choose to buy- perhaps they see 10 percent growth as a positive- depends on your mindset as an investor.

[montyhedge] 20/1/2020 21:20

Good post, writing on the wall, no one wanted to believe sales could slow and competition would not come.Even now p.e 27 seems high for what seems ex growth.

[dround87] 20/1/2020 20:09

I do agree with you on that llama. Not that they're all shorters although plenty must be. We've clashed plenty on this board but I've got nothing but disdain for those who turn up after the event and pretend they know it all. If you saw it coming then you'd have posted here before the trading update when the screen was blue wouldn't you! Everyone's an expert after the fact. Porsche1945 Chief amongt them.

[castleford tiger] 20/1/2020 20:05

HPCG and Sogoesit

I can only report on my own findings and as I have been saying for the last few months sales have really slowed down.
We are probably now running 50% behind last year.

The Gin boom is at saturation point. We sell 900 and have started to discount to clear stock.
We are carrying too big a range now especially with key lines being given away in multiples.
We are coming back to 450/500 during 2020.

The worry is that sales are falling fast and with it the mixers.

I first noticed shorter dates coming to us by the truck load meaning production was exceeding sales. This was many months ago.
Eating out yesterday in a very classy restaurant my gin came with a new brand of tonic. No longer are we special enough.
Its the problem M and S had with Fashion.

I expect an horrific first half in the Uk possibly 20% or more down.

The light is clearly the USA and Europe but my advice remains these are over valued and at some point £10.00 will come around.
They have net cash and no huge factories to service.

Just wish I shorted ( its against my morals ) as this and TCG would have made me lots of cash.
DYOR but this may only be the first bit of bad news.

Tiger

[llama1978] 20/1/2020 19:53

People who are paid to just turn up to talk it down and scare PIs into selling up so that their companies can buy the shares at lower prices later.

[growthpotential] 20/1/2020 18:30

Who are you?

[dround87] 20/1/2020 18:26

Lose all credibility? Just like someone on this board! Hey Chris?