Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[panic investor] 05/5/2017 18:40

WD it is the norm in the south east - Schweppes and britvic don't exist

[staverly] 05/5/2017 17:48

Wetdream ...may i refer you to c1 p12, last sentence of penultimate paragraph, current AR. Tried to cut and paste it, no joy.

[wetdream] 05/5/2017 15:13

I guess the 'trick' for Fever Tree is to make their (premium) brand become the norm when ordering a G&T etc.
As long as people's disposable income allows, then they won't notice/care they're paying a premium price.

[panic investor] 04/5/2017 16:00

speaking to a client today who has just flown in from NY - never heard of Fever but gin bars over there have taken off. He's headed back out there on Monday and will let me know when he see's FEVR on the shelves.

[martywidget] 04/5/2017 13:25

Fever-Tree: Creating an iconic brand
Wednesday, May 03 2017 by Damian Cannon

[sogoesit] 03/5/2017 16:02

Apart from a Madagascan Cola to cool me down when I see the relentless climb in share price I also remind myself that a take-out would involve, at least, a 30% price premium.
This usually jolts me into inaction and I return to my reveries. ;-)

[apad] 03/5/2017 12:38

ps
FEVR now 21% of portfolio. I used to have a 5% limit on a holding - what a prat!

Keep thinking of top-slicing, but a G&T makes the feeling go away.

apad

[apad] 03/5/2017 12:34

Brilliant! Hats off to you MW.

Photoshop it - false news - Yes.

apad

[martywidget] 03/5/2017 12:29

[Putting on my Jesters hat] Okay then, perhaps for starters, next time Warren buffett visits the UK [Bloomberg/CNBC studios] lets get Warren Buffet drinking Fever-Tree Madagascan Cola instead of his daily Coca-Cola and have a photo shared on social media outlets!



[Substitute Fever-Tree in above photo!!]

[apad] 03/5/2017 12:11

I'd prefer a social media gentle roll out, MW ?

This bad baby pays a divi and employs a handfull of people.

My cash flow numbers for the last two results are stellar:

Investing Cash Flow (£m) (0.8) (0.4)
Free Cash Flow (£m) 19.8 10.0

I'm glad you don't have your nasty sticky fingers on their budget :-)

apad

[martywidget] 03/5/2017 11:47

Fever-Tree should get Tim Warrillow and/or Charles Rolls on CNBC again, but this time in the States in the NYSE on Squawk Box or Squawk on the Street.

Give Jim Cramer, et al at CNBC some Fever-Tree, some freebies to put on the desk. Get 'em drinking Fever-Tree Madagascan Cola instead of their regular.

Consider a US listing, get Jim Cramer talking Fever-Tree, then get him talk about it on Mad Money.

That may help work wonders!

Get a US listing, and get bought out by Monster Beverage [NYSE: MNST], The Coca-Cola Company [NYSE: KO] etc.

;)

[apad] 03/5/2017 11:27

I think there is an issue in the numbers about not emulating as speedy a UK performance rise in Europe, a.

Jury out on the US.

What do you think about this?

apad

[alcoholtradebuyer] 03/5/2017 10:36

great performance on the sector, I should know. Dis doing well if you followed that one.

Stock Spirits looking cheap now by comparison. Worth a look.

[aimingupward2] 30/4/2017 16:17

Seen the article myself now.

What LJ doesn't touch on is the following point made in the Prelim Results:

"it is notable that gin only accounts for 6% of the global premium spirits category. The dark spirits category, on the other hand, accounts for 60% of global premium spirits, ten times the size. ...... New Fever-Tree products will be launched in 2017 to complement our existing dark spirit mixing range, reintroducing quality and choice to the trade and consumers of dark spirits. We believe that an exciting opportunity exists to work alongside the premium spirits brands to reinvigorate the dark spirits category, in much the same way we approached the gin category over ten years ago."

[aimingupward2] 30/4/2017 12:10

Positive re further growth or cautious?

[wetdream] 30/4/2017 11:39

Article in today's ST by Luke Johnson comparing FeverTree to Red Bull-amongst other things.
Subcription needed?

[devalpha] 29/4/2017 12:41

The IC is useful for identifying shares to research further but I wouldn't take much notice of their recommendations. Last year, whoever's behind the Bearbull column in the IC basically rubbished Fevertree and couldn't even get Charles Rolls surname correct! I remember reading it and thinking the research and thought that's gone into this amounts to 10mins max. Fevertree haven't done too badly since.

[staverly] 28/4/2017 18:45

For my sins i take a copy of IC each week, just as an insurance policy against missing an interesting financial report, not to read the platitudinous drivel that's served up week in, week out. Today's comments about FEVR in their AIM 100 survey appear disingenuous:

'Last year was branded "exceptional" by the company, somewhat acceptably, given the growth ...' No it wasn't. The source document actually states: "2016 was another exceptional year of growth ... " which has totally different meaning. It is noteworthy that the 2015, 2016, 2017 preliminary result's outlook were all but identical. Do the Math.

The idiot who wrote the article couldn't even be bothered to check the dividend,FFS.

[sogoesit] 27/4/2017 10:02

FCF Cash Conversion:
FEVR : 81%
BOO : 21%

FCF before Capex, Interest & Dividends Conversion:
FEVR : 99.65%
BOO : 97.68%

BOO is investing more - £30.675m vs FEVR's £0.823m

[3fiona] 27/4/2017 09:11

Totally agreed plus FEVR pay dividends.

[staverly] 27/4/2017 07:47

Sgi ... well argued. Worth noting a stock's FCF generation ability:

Last 2 fiscal years ...

ASC: ~£130m
BOO : ~£4m (£9m in past 3 years)
FEVR : ~£30m

BOO is also the odd man out as it never had first mover advantage.

DYOR

[sogoesit] 27/4/2017 04:54

I think it's a timing issue, staverly, that is misleading you. I.e. In the progression of growth from inception.
BOO generates about £295m for a net pass through to the bottom line of 10%.
FEVR is generating £100m for a net pass through of 27% to the bottom line, one third of BOO's.
BOO is growing top line at 50% but FEVR is at 73%.
They trade on similar P/E's (70-80) but same PEGs approx.
There will come a time, if growth rates remain constant in each case, that FEVR's top line will be the same as BOO's, and approaching that when the higher FEVR profitability will generate higher earnings, but between here and there no one is going to pay for that prospect now, given the risks. In time, maybe yes.
Next year's forecast revenue for BOO looks like £435m and FEVR's £175m netting at £43m and £47m respectively or 4p/share and 40p/share respectively. Market caps therefore forecast at £3.60bn and £2.75bn respectively.
They are simply different sizes at this point in time and for the next few years.
I hold both but don't see any reason to pay more now for FEVR than BOO as the risk/reward ratios "stack-up" reasonably for both; even less for FEVR imv.