Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 10/6/2017 12:44

Henchard"I could see FEVR beating EPS forecasts but not to the extent of 35.4p or higher."Why not? They consistently exceed forecasts, why not 48p eps?, that's the million dollar question.........one things certain though IMO and that is that growth is definitely not going to have gone from 106% to 16%.DD

[ccr1958] 10/6/2017 12:29

All I know is when this dips below 1700 .I buy and it serves me well of course you boys may prove me wrong in time ..

[christh] 10/6/2017 12:20

One thing is agreed by all: It is a growth stock, the trend is upwards and the
results way ahead of expectations.

Hence £20 by July 24 - results day is a good indicator.

[henchard] 10/6/2017 12:13

Here are some actual numbers for 2016 and forecast numbers for 2017 and 2018 (based on the current share price of 1,714p):

..........2016.....2017.....2018
EPS.......23.86p...27.68p...31.06p
Growth....106.2%...16.0%....12.2%
P/E.......71.8x....61.9x....55.2x

Surely the shares are way too high at these P/Es for the forecast growth. The PEG ratio for 2017 is 3.9.

For the PEG to get to the "fair value" benchmark of 1 (let alone a "growth-at-a-reasonable-price" level of below 1) FEVR would have to do EPS of 35.4p in 2017, which is 28% higher than the current consensus and 22% higher than the most bullish analyst, who's forecasting 29p EPS according to the FT.

I could see FEVR beating EPS forecasts but not to the extent of 35.4p or higher.

The alternative, of course, is that the share price would have to fall significantly for the valuation to become attractive.

[christh] 10/6/2017 11:53

Sogoesit,

utter rubish.
Read the Slater " Zulu principle" and "Beyond the Zulu principle".

They are eye openners.
It talks about growth companies.
If the trend is up, follow it, " let the trend be your friend".

[sogoesit] 10/6/2017 11:23

For me, the longer term daily eod chart gives current support at 1680 (intraday)/1700 (eod). There is an upper descending triangle line to this horizontal support line whose apex should meet early July. I use Marber's rule to only count 3% moves on a daily eod close as significant/confirmation from the break line... but ignore it from time to time!
This pattern has repeated itself several times since Feb 2017.

On a valuation basis, my forecast high thirties for year end 2017 means that the P/E being paid is now around 40. But, if they exceed expectations, then that is low and we could see my target of £20 being moved to in due course.
GLA

[sogoesit] 10/6/2017 11:06

Thanks bamboo; brilliant!

Your ascending triangle has been working well. I've used it to the upside.
Although out of cash for the time being - like ccr I sold down some Fevr to raise cash for Boo - I have also now re-purchased at about 1700.
Triangles are, "of course" (?), continuation patterns. Marber, see below, says "this pattern signifies indecision". However, in a bullish share chart I use it as an indication for the upside.

Will be interesting to see how the Falling Wedge works out, especially as a warning to the upside/breakout. I studied "Marber on Markets" (by Brian Marber). He has this to say about the falling wedge:
"... illustrates that it is the down-thrusts that are becoming progressively weaker."
and
"If the down trend line is broken by an advance 3% above it at any close, do nothing except watch and wait because what tends to follow is a rounding bottom... which may take a long time to form."

Marber is a long term, daily, eod, closes chartist and I know you are shorter term but in terms of logic these things should be scaleable; just getting the time scale right, I guess.

[christh] 10/6/2017 10:22

You are all becoming too technical and drawn away from the fundementals.
The revenue as stated is ahead of expectations and may be tripled like previous
times.
The expansion, the product demand and recent contracts will and should propel this to £20 and higher.
The company is well run and well deserved all the success.
I will be looking at £18 sooner than later and looking forward to the results.
Might have a run to the results which we already know they will be good, so make your own assumptions.

Only the thought that Diageo is lurking to bounce for a bid frightens me as this
gem will be swallowed by a megabeast.
I am sure as many investment journalists have said that "diageo will probably make a bid for this quality company".
The term "grow organically or grow by aquisition" applies here for Diageo.

[ccr1958] 10/6/2017 09:52

Thx bamboo, if it goes any where near 1650p I will be loading up again... sold a few last week I felt I was overloaded ..

[bamboo2] 10/6/2017 09:23

Sogo, yesterdays close bang on the Ascending Triangle lower trendline. Shame share price couldn't end the week in a more conclusive fashion.

Just started monitoring a third concurrent pattern, a Falling Wedge, which has its apex approx the same day as the AT, Fr 16th June or more likely Mon 19th June, which is a potential turn day. The lower trendline of this FW is the neckline of another small H&S. Historical support 1650.

[sogoesit] 10/6/2017 01:57

IC view of 09 June on Rolls' recent share sale.
Apparently, the price is "unfair". Go figure!!

"Fevertree's shares have continued to trend upwards since it listed on Aim in 2014, and the stock currently trades around 1,699p - well ahead of what was paid by institutional investors who took the chance to top up on discounted shares. But for private investors, a lofty 58 times earnings price tag hardly seems fair against rivals like Britvic and Nichols, which trade at 14 times and 23 times forward earnings respectively. Hold."

[sogoesit] 09/6/2017 16:52

Lol @ wetdream.
Yes, BOO, a perfectly suitable stock for an Insane Investor!
Still in here, tho ;-)

BTW, personally I value bamboo's insights on short term direction for the share.
(Note the words "short term").
It helps me identify good entry points for accumulating and seeing the short term upside. Although I'm a longer term investor a short term view, matched to my longer term targets, are very very useful for entry and exit points. Anyway, this is his thread ;-)!
I also object to meaningless ramping so have christh filtered.

Good weekend all!

[wetdream] 09/6/2017 16:21

I'd guess that plenty of FEVR 'invesors' have now switched to BOO, if they hadn't already, where the PE's even more mental than here!

[christh] 09/6/2017 16:00

panic investor,

don't panic mr mainwaring

[panic investor] 09/6/2017 15:41

Thats a little harsh on Bamboo I think, he definitely doesn't de-ramp stocks.

Always good information imho

[panic investor] 09/6/2017 15:39

Estimated 24th July for results

[bamboo2] 09/6/2017 11:10

chris, I am looking at chart patterns. I report the figures here so that I can refer back quickly, if for example an opportunity arises when I am not at my desk.

I always try to be objective.

I agree the LT trend is up, however, I am suggesting here may be a consolidation period in the near term. I am working on eod closing prices, so look at these in conjunction with tp's.

[christh] 09/6/2017 10:56

bamboo2 9 Jun '17 - 09:03 - 477 of 477

A load of Bull as always.
This is heading upwards and the trend is up.
It will hit £18 in the next few weeks as there is a big demand for the shares.
The chart is pointing up, and the strength of the company is a clear pointer
to where this is going.

Results are only 5-6 weeks away, in July, but no date confirmed yet.

[bamboo2] 09/6/2017 09:03

Price currently moving below lower trendline of Ascending Triangle. Tp = 1582 confirmed on an eod close below approx 1710

A small H&S top could be forming, tp approx 1627. Pattern confirmed on an eod close below 1680

[ch1rp] 08/6/2017 19:06

Agreed £18 and onwards. These amazing big buys do suggest confidence in a share price brought down by silly daily mail comments.

[christh] 08/6/2017 08:23

another push today to £18.
It is imminent that will break through to £18.

Results already more or less known as the ceo said "comfortably ahead of expectations".

[sogoesit] 07/6/2017 16:35

Bought some more on pyglet's pull back.
Such a generous (wo)man!

[ccr1958] 07/6/2017 14:57

Pyglet I am waiting patiently?

[ch1rp] 07/6/2017 11:51

Roll on the election and 1800p

[bamboo2] 06/6/2017 21:52

After todays price action, the Ascending Triangle has even better definition. On average, price breaks out one way or the other, approx 61% of the length of the triangle. This is in the next two, maybe three sessions.

Next potential apex based turn I have indicated is 8 June, following that, another 19-20 June.